DFS NHL is a volatile sport centering around correlation, stacking and game theory. Learning how to win cash games and tournaments requires nailing those great upside plays/stacks, grabbing obvious value, and making the proper fades that sink everyone else’s ships. Let’s look through today’s slate and identify those winning picks in “Snipes, Grinders, and Hard Passes!”
Snipe = Good Play
Grinder = Value Plays (Grinders are Valuable)
Hard-Pass = I’m fading in tournaments
DFS NHL Slate Overview:
Today, I get to talk about the CBJ a little bit more, because they are one of the only 4 teams playing tonight. The Blue Jackets have sucked since they came back from the week off, which is in fact a scheduling disaster from the NHL, but it is not the reason they lost. They lost because their blueline sucks and they need to tighten that up. The 2 games on this slate are kind of weird, because the CBJ/DET game should be very fast paced with both goalies capable of making 35 saves; and then on the other hand TB/NYI have some top end talent, but their much more stout defenses limit their goalies’ ceilings.
So, basically I’m going to address the goalies at the beginning here and say that Vasilevskiy will be the chalky cash game goalie with a higher chance of a high floor game, and a relatively average chance to hit a moderate ceiling; and the other 3 are GPP options. I would say that more than likely the winning goalie between the CBJ and Red Wings will be the GPP winners, but if you want to get really weird with a talented goalie and probably the lowest ownership on the slate, Ilya Sorokin would be a high risk high reward contrarian option in tournaments. Also, for this slate on FanDuel, I had a hard time even spending all of the salary to make a correlated team that made sense.
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Snipes and Hard Passes for Tonight
Correlated Snipe #1
Brayden Point $6200DK/$7600FD
Ondrej Palat $4500DK/$5700FD
Anthony Cirelli $3600DK/$4200FD
Victor Hedman $7200DK/$6600FD
One of the more chalky lines tomorrow, but they are at home with Palat and Cirelli being disrespected in regards to pricing. Point is also poorly priced on DK, and Hedman is poorly priced on FD. Hedman may be the chalkiest defenseman on the slate for both sites, but I suggest just eating that ownership, even in tournaments, because he has one of the highest ceilings on ths slate, and is always seems to be on the ice. You can throw Stamkos in as an honorable mention if you want to do a PP stack with Point, but I think the Point/Palat/Cirelli line is one that is primed to be both highly owned, but the ceiling is there to warrant it. On a 2 game, as long as we find a spot or 2 to get unique that could keep us from chopping a tournament.
Correlated Snipe #2
Cole Sillinger $4000DK/$4400FD
Jakub Voracek $4200DK/$4400FD
Oliver Bjorkstrand $6700DK/$6700FD
Boone Jenner $4700DK/$4300FD
Zach Werenski $6500DK/$5000FD
So, all of the CBJ I just listed are the 5 guys on their PP1. How I suggest you split this up in DFS NHL tournaments is this; Boone Jenner and Bjorkstrand have been on the same line for a while, and they also correlate on the PP1. The same thing applies to Cole Sillinger and Jakub Voracek skating together on the same line and being a part of the PP1. And then, there was Zach Werenski, who is the catalyst on the PP1, out there on the PK, is the first defenseman out there for 3v3 OT; Werenski is the only legit top pairing defenseman the CBJ have on their roster, and head coach Brad Larsen uses him until his wheels fall off. Also, Werenski was born in Michigan, went to Michigan University, and always has a bunch of friends and family at these games.
The CBJ really need a bounce back performance, and even though Detroit is no slouch any more, I think they will at least really step up and hit the gas in this one and score some goals. Whether or not their blueline can get their heads out of their asses is another story, so they could still lose; however I’m gambling on them being able to score some goals.
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Hard Pass #1 (I guess)
Dylan Larkin $6400DK/$6500FD
Lucas Raymond $5100DK/$5400FD
Tyler Bertuzzi $6500DK/$5100FD
I will start by saying there aren’t any real hard passes tonight, since it’s only a 2 game slate. With that being said, some chalk has to be faded in NHL tournaments, and the least stacked ownership I will have is Detroit.I could see a full game stack between DET/CBJ being a build for tournaments with having the NYI or TB goalie on the other side, but in general I suggest fading some chalk. If you have a TB and a DET stack in your lineup with line Hedman and Werenski, you are probably in a cash game and not a GPP. I will say that Tyler Bertuzzi has historically killed the CBJ, so playing him as a one-off is not absolutely terrible, and could be a way to make your lineup unique.
NHL Grinder Value Plays
Grinder #1 Yegor Chinakov- cheap rookie is on the first CBJ line and the PP2, is looking for his first goal, and even hit a crossbar Friday vs Washington.
Grinder #2 Pius Suter- talented little player that is not afraid to shoot that puck for Detroit, in a pace up game
Grinder #3 Zach Parise- Old man river knows how to play on the road, he likes to keep it simple and shoot that puck. The Islanders know that they are going to have to get in front of Vasilevskiy to make him uncomfortable.
Good luck, I hope you all come in 2nd. 😉
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