DFS NHL is a volatile sport centering around correlation, stacking and game theory. Learning how to win cash games and tournaments requires nailing those great upside plays/stacks, grabbing obvious value, and making the proper fades that sink everyone else’s ships. Let’s look through today’s slate and identify those winning picks in “Snipes, Grinders, and Hard Passes!”
Snipe = Good Play
Grinder = Value Plays (Grinders are Valuable)
Hard-Pass = I’m fading in tournaments
DFS NHL Slate Overview:
Take what I say with a grain of salt, because I am a lifelong (since the franchise started) Columbus Blue Jacket fan, and can be biased towards the team. I say this, but I bet most of my friends and family would say I am overly pessimistic as a fan. With all of that being said, I am seeing some JARRING misprices with the CBJ players, which could allow you to get to some higher priced stacks that you would want, and really there are 4 big correlations to choose from.
Most of the field will have one of Kuznetsov/Ovi, Matthews/Marner/Nylander/Tavares, McDavid/Draisaitl, and finally Kane/Debrincat. So, let’s dive into who and why on my Blue Jackets are mispriced, and how to leverage the field so we can take down a tournament. Also, I will never tout and take credit for McDavid and Draisaitl picks, those are common sense if you can get there.
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Snipes and Hard Passes for Tonight
Correlated Snipe #1
Cole Sillinger $4200DK/$4400FD
Jakub Voracek $3700DK/$4400FD
Yegor Chinakov $2500DK/$3000FD
Zach Werenski $5700DK/$4900FD
There are other mispriced Blue Jackets, but these guys are my favorites. You are getting a top line for $10,400 on DK and $11,800 on FD. Patrick Laine went on IR recently and coach Brad Larson decided to put big vocal Voracek with 2 first round pick rookies, and in the first game it payed dividends. Chinakov had 2 assists, Sillinger scored, and Voracek had an assist, as they beat Colorado. A side note is that Washington is on the road in a back to back situation, and Columbus has had an entire week off and been home since last Friday night. The 7-3 Jackets’ home and home series was initially scheduled to be played in Finland, so they gave both teams an extended break after their games.
With the new strand of covid emerging, the NHL and their uber-genius owner Gary Bettman actually made the correct decision and said actually let’s stay in North America. So, that is a weird situation where you may have one tired veteran team on the road, and the youngest team in the NHL chomping at the bit to play. In my opinion, a lot of the min-priced and disrespected Blue Jacksts are in play, like Jake Bean; however, the guys I mentioned, especially Sillinger, Voracek, and Werenski are in a prime spot to overwhelm an old and tired team, get on the powerplay, and score some goals. Also, Zach Werenski has averaged 11.5 DK points per game in his last 4 games, and hasn’t even been on the scoresheet; the guy plays in all situations and is everywhere.
Correlated Snipe #2
Patrick Kane $7500DK/$8800FD
Alex Debrincat $6300DK/$7000FD
I will give both sites credit that these players are appropriately priced, but on a moderately short slate, at home game against the AHL affiliate of the Phoenix Coyotes is too good of a spot to pass up. Sure you can add to this stack, but I typically just pair these 2 and that is it. They love playing with each other and have done it for a while. Both Kane and Debrincat have been throwing pucks on net (see our NHL Research Station to see the specific stats), and when these guys are aggressive, ceiling type games seem to follow. Bettors will either see this as a trap game or a get-right game, I simply see it as a nice way to fit another high-priced correlation in your lineup with how much value is out there.
Sep 29, 2021; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Capitals left wing Alex Ovechkin (8) skates with the puck against the New Jersey Devils during the third period at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Hard Pass #1
Evgeny Kuznetsov $7300DK/$7700FD
Alexander Ovechkin $9300DK/$9600FD
I will keep this very simple. At these price-points even if Ovechkin scores a goal assisted by Kuznetsov, they aren’t gauranteed to reach 2.5X of their salary. I have already been over their traveling situations, and also, the CBJ sport one of the best penalty kills in the league; and as a fan, if Ovechkin scores his golf swing clap-bomb shot from the left faceoff dot on the powerplay I will eat a shoe. Combine the stout PK, with a 94% save percentage Elvis Merzlikins in net, and I don’t see how Ovechkin and Kuznetsov get there with reguarity in similar spots. My prediction for this game is that it is close till the end, but Washington scores 2 random greasy road goals from a depth guy or 2; if Ovechkin nets a hatty, I lose and I’m wrong. Oh well, it happens.
Snipe #3
Noah Hanifin $3200DK
This is mainly a DK specific cheap defenseman to fill your lineup. Hanifin plays a solid amount of minutes, in several situations, and just based on talent alone he is not a $3200 player. It also doesn’t hurt that he is in a pace-up matchup with Toronto.
Snipe #4
Jacob Chychrun $4800FD
Like Hanifin, except on FanDuel, Chychrun is egregiously undervalued. This was then league leader in goals by defenseman last year, I believe. His team may currently suck, and I am not stacking Coyotes ever this year, but Chychrun as a one-off is very playable. The Blackhawks can concede goals. They have been very good at that. I will not be blindly gambling as to which old salary-dumped forward will deflect the Chychrun point shot, but Chychrun has a high ceiling; he just hasn’t had a chance to even come close to reaching it this season. I genuinely feel bad for this young man, because he has to go from freezing his ass off and watch pucks go into his own net, and then sweat his balls off on his commute to his apartment/house.
Hard Pass #2
Almost all of the CAR/Philly game Carolina forwards like Aho, Svechnikov, Necas, are in play, but they don’t excite me. In general, I feel there is a lot of talent in this game; however, I have no idea where the goals are going to come from. These are 2 deep teams with 2 talented goalies (Anderson has been remarkable), and this game is simply way too difficult to predict. Example: If you glance at an Edmonton score and they have 5, the first question is how many points did McDavid/Draisaitl have? Same with Washington and Ovechkin. In hockey, I want to be able to somewhat guess where offensive production is coming from and not just fart in the wind and hope it doesn’t smell. If a specific stack goes off from this game, I will lose, oh well. Most of these guys will be faded in cash I am assuming.
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NHL Grinder Value Plays
Columbus Blue Jackets…just sayin
What About Goalie?
The chalky cash-game goalies are going to be whoever suits up for Edmonton and Chicago; Marc-Andre Fleury will be the highest owned in all formats and I will suggest him for cash and fading in GPP. To win a GPP, I mostly like Elvis Merzlikins from Columbus or Freddy Anderson from Carolina. Carter Hart and Ilya Samsonov are in play for tournaments as well; so basically I am saying if you predict the winning goalie in the CBJ/WSH or the PHI/CAR game, you are probably going to skyrocket up your leaderboards. “But Sean all you did was list 6 of the 10 possible goalies.” Yup, but now you know where the chalk will be, and where the fastest paced games are so you can position yourself to bink a tournament.
Good luck, I hope you all come in 2nd. 😉
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