DFS NHL is a volatile sport centering around correlation, stacking and game theory. Learning how to win cash games and tournaments requires nailing those great upside plays/stacks, grabbing obvious value, and making the proper fades that sink everyone else’s ships. Let’s look through today’s slate and identify those winning picks in “Snipes, Grinders, and Hard Passes!”
Snipe = Good Play
Grinder = Value Plays (Grinders are Valuable)
Hard-Pass = I’m fading in tournaments
Master of the NHL Obvious Intentional Omission
I will start by saying that Connor McDavid ($9200) and Leon Draisaitl ($9100) in a pace-up matchup in Detroit is a very obvious spot that I am not going to tout, and if you can find extra value elsewhere, by all means play them.
Jun 24, 2021; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Canadiens forward Cole Caufield (22) celebrates with forward Paul Byron (41) and forward Nick Suzuki (14) after scoring a goal against Vegas Golden Knights goalie Robin Lehner (90) during the second period in game six of the 2021 Stanley Cup Semifinals at the Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports
NHL Snipes and Hard Passes for Tonight
Correlated Snipe #1
Nick Suzuki $5300
Mike Hoffman $4200
Ben Chiarot $4100
Ben Gallagher $4500
The Kings are coming to Montreal on the second leg of a back to back to face the hungry and desperate Canadians. The Canadians have struggled to score to start the season, and although I don’t see them as a high octane offense, I do see them improving in the future. Each individual play makes sense at their price points. Suzuki is simply too talented at $5300 and will always have breakout game potential. Mike Hoffman has always had a tendency to get pucks to the net with his wicked release (especially on the powerplay). Capping a stack off with a value defenseman is always an interesting maneuver. Chiarot is a good value play at $4100 because not only does he see a lot of ice time, but he does exactly what I want my DFS NHL defenseman to do in fantasy; which is, block shots and send pucks to the net. If your defensemen can reach their blocked shot or shots on goal bonuses, you are well ahead of most of the rest of the field in tournaments. Ben Gallagher does correlate with the rest of these guys, but in my opinion he is more of a one-off play with goal scoring ability with his general aggressiveness, net front presence, and multiple shot attempts per game.
Hard Pass #1
Dylan Larkin $6800
Tyler Bertuzzi $6700
Lucas Raymond $5300
Moritz Seider $5000
Yes, the Red Wings are at home in a pace-up matchup against the Edmonton McDavids, but the ownership is simply too high in this one for how often the ceiling hits these price points. I agree, the Red Wings have been a nice bounce back story, and they have rebuilt their franchise to the point where I think they will be competing for a playoff spot for a long time; however, regression is a thing that happens in an 82 game season filled with ebbs and flows and peaks and valleys. There are 18 players per game for every team and for 2 or 3 of these players to get there they would need probably 2 points a piece, which is not an easy feat to accomplish. Hard-Pass for me on Detroit.
Correlated Snipe #2
Elias Pettersson $6200
Brock Boeser $4600
JT Miller $4800
Quinn Hughes $5600
I will say if you aren’t playing these guys at home against the Ducks, then you might as well play the red hot John Gibson in net for the Anaheim Ducks. I say this because I foresee Vancouver carrying the play in this one and controlling the pace. If stacking the Canucks side of this game, I would recommend using 2 or 3 of these players, and in general I’d recommend splitting up Miller and Pettersson because they tend to be more playmakers than scorers even though they are capable of both. All of these players can produce points and get the bulk of the PP time.
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Hard-Pass #2
Patrick Kane $7500
Alex Debrincat $6200
Kirby Dach $4000
Seth Jones $6900
I’m still not buying the Chicago Blackhawks as a whole, and even though I love me some Kane to Debrincat stacks in general, I will not be playing them when they are trending upward with spiked ownership at home. Pittsburgh’s culture that Sidney Crosby and head coach Mike Sullivan have created over the past decade is a hard-nosed defensive game that frustrates the opposition’s top 6 and annoys the hell out of NHL fans (ask me, I’m a Blue Jacket at heart). That pesky style is tough to play against and for Kane and company to get the job done, they will need around 3 points a piece at their respective price points; no thanks…errrr, HARD PASS.
Snipe #3
David Pasternak $8000
The Czeck forward has not scored goals at a pasta-like clip to start the year; however he scored in his last game, and had hit the shots on goal bonus in 2 of his last 3. That mixed with being at home is a tasty pasta dish. I apologize. Just know that Pasternak has the upside to break the slate, and if he does that, then Brad Marchand $7400 is in play as well as an optional correlation piece. Marchand loves setting the table up for his pasta dish. I really am sorry for the #DadJoke, but I just couldn’t help myself.
Snipe #4
Brent Burns $7500
I will keep this simple. Big wookie shoot puck and block shot for betterment of team. Simple enough, right? Oh yeah, and paying up at defense is very risky as a default strategy. Not many people do it which can make it a phenomenal contrarian play for tournaments when the play pushes its DFS NHL ceiling. Also, Burns doesn’t need to be correlated with any other Sharks; he is a good one-off.
NHL Grinder Value Plays
Grinder #1 Blake Wheeler $3200
Grinder #2 Martin Necas $3700
Grinder #3 Tim Stutzle $3900
Grinder #4 Dawson Mercer $3900
Grinder #5 Sean Monohan $3300
What About Goalies?
To end my breakdown of the slate I will tell you how I gauge the NHL goaltending position. Scroll through the goalies, and the first one you click on, is going to be one of the highest owned and you probably do not want to do that. For example, if the first goalie you clicked on was Swayman, Knight/Bobrovsky, or Markstrom, then that is also probably the first goalie a lot of people clicked on. All of those guys are in favorable spots and are solid cash game plays, which is fine but I’m trying to bink a tournament for a Happy Gilmore sized check. I typically will see a few goalies that have a high chance of both winning the game, as well as grabbing the 35 save bonus, which skyrockets you up the leaderboard. The 3 goalies I am targeting are Robin Lehner, Connor Hellebuyck, and Andrei Vasilevskiy. I may be wrong in targeting those guys, and that is the beauty of hockey; anything can happen in any second, and anyone can have a special or off night.
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