Back by popular demand, NFL DFS Box Checkers shows you to quickly identify key players for this week’s fantasy football slate in minutes. The DFS Army NFL Research Station is a very powerful suite of statistical analysis with fully customizable, filterable, sortable functionality. What used to take days or hours now takes mere minutes to discover! Follow along as @Choppodong rips these core plays to shreds every week in less than 15 minutes…
At the bottom, see a secret video normally only available to our VIPs! How to setup the optimizer to crush the top 1% and 2% in contests like leagues and microboosters. As the self-proclaimed “king of the smallaballa,” Chop has uncovered another easy to follow system capable of building bankrolls for anyone struggling on Fanduel or Draftkings.
Week 10 NFL Box Checkers
Quarterbacks
5 categories lead to making value historically. Home NFL QBs perform better than road QBs. Favored teams are implied to score more points, and their QBs do the scoring. Game totals make sense to follow, the higher the better. And, efficiency trumps volume! Volume is nice, but efficient QBs are proven to put up more fantasy points than those banking on volume alone. To finish, salary. You can price yourself out of making value unless putting up a true ceiling performance. In the NFL, we find staying under $8000 in Draftkings salary helps…in fact, the cheaper the better.
Remember, blue is very strong. Green is pretty strong. When it comes to checking boxes, we are tracking those typically leading to a DFS NFL player paying off his salary.
Herbert, Rodgers, Wentz….wow, Wentz made the list. I might trust Herbert more than the others, but hey….indicators are they are all strong this week. I guess we’ll see.
Next in line, Allen, Brady, Tannehill. With no Henry, Tannehill likely gets leaned on a bit more. And, last year, Tannehill was a top 10 QBR quarterback. He’s had a bad/slower start to the early part of the year, but these past couple weeks we’ve seen he’s more than playable when he’s cheap. Brady is Brady, and Allen is due to post a big number soon (and I believe he gets Kroft back, too). I might like the green guys better than a couple of the blue guys. So, don’t get married to any “list” you find on the internetz……apply your own common sense, too.
That’s the point of Box Checkers….compare and contrast available choices.
Running Backs
Once again, home teams matter for RBs, and being favored obviously affects game scripts in a positive way. High scoring game environments help push those touchdowns around, landing on running backs. We want volume at all positions not QB. 18 touches (rushes + receptions) is the goal here. Passing game work gives us safety when the game script flips. Red Zone work matters…especially inside the 10. And, salary works here again. Staying under $8000 like our NFL QBs helps the running backs, too.
NFL DFS RB is often where Box Checkers shines. These guys are safe enough for a cash game, but you might not use them there if you find 30% or 40% NFL RBs. They do, however, make sneaky high-quality pivot plays in tourneys or even multipliers and leagues. My “Ladder System” absolutely feasts off plays like these.
Ok, Zeke was blue last week, too, and wreckt our shit. Do you have the stones to go back to the well? Of course, injury reports matter, but the matchup is another really good one on paper. No one denies the all around goodness of Austin Ekeler. The question has always been durability. If he’s healthy, he’s almost always a solid play…and rates better than most this week, hence the blue color.
Aaron Jones is always sketchy, but if he pops off, it shouldn’t shock anyone. It’s just a matter of if you rostered him….which many won’t (and probably shouldn’t if playing for a floor). Jonathan Taylor feels like a great play, and Najee Harris definitely shines with some volume.
The amazing part is CMC. If you look at both CMC and Dalvin Cook, you’ll see how hard players get hit in Box Checkers when they aren’t at home and aren’t favored. Does this alone make them horrible plays? No. It makes them riskier than usual plays…..and often allows other plays to leap over them slightly. Again, this is where Box Checkers tends to shine. If you see a ton of these guys in cash games, rejoice. There were slightly “safer” options out there.
Wide Receivers
Home field advantage proves negligible for NFL WRs. But, being favored is still important to hitting fantasy value. High totals matter, but when favored, we want team totals over 25 points. When the dog, we want UNDER 22 points indicating garbage time potential. Volume matters again. We’d like to see more than 7 targets per game on the average, and we want to see more than about 25% usage in the Red Zone…especially on Fanduel. Salary is key again, so we stay under $7000 here. Remember, this position is volatile as hell. But, we have backtested 250+ contests and found the top 3 Milli-Maker lineups contain someone meeting these criteria almost 60% of the time…..good odds for a crapshoot like WR.
WR is typically our crapshoot position, but occasionally we do get some outstanding plays. Is Mike Williams that guy this week? Box Checkers suggests yes. I’m personally not so sure. I do think he’s likely to return to early season form here and there, but damned if I know which week it will be. Keenan Allen is far and away the safer play for cash games. But, enough people are likely overlooking Williams to the point he’s an outstanding gpp play.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are great when AB still sits. Pittman has emerged as the man in Indy, of course. And, with Wentz on the efficiency list, it makes Pittman a smidge safer yet. Adam Theilen is interesting because he plays better in man coverage schemes than zone. Jefferson plays better in zone…..and the Chargers play zone. In my own lineups, I’ll be increasing my Jefferson exposure this week and downplaying my Theilen exposure…..and likely kicking myself when Theilen cherry picks a tuddy or two and Jefferson lets me down. Such is the #DFSLife. Learn to embrace it.
Another great tool to consult is our coaching NFL Cheatsheets! If you wind up torn on a couple players, sometimes the words in the blurbs by another coach can help you tip the scale.
Tight Ends
Here we go with the home and favorite stuff again. NFL TE depends on it. We want volume, so focus on 7+ targets again, too. Red Zone work goes without saying at TE. And, we’ve discovered they also benefit from closer games, under 7 point spreads. If favored, you want ITTs over 26 points, and if the dog, under 24 points. Cheap plays, too!! On Draftkings, $3000-$5000 seems to be landing in the Milli a ridiculous 68% of the time…..and until week 1 this year, we had no recorded example of an 8k TE appearing in the Milli winner. That changes with Travis Kelce, and you can speculate all the previous slates he might not have been a part of due to prime time or Monday Night games. Fact is….the super high-priced TE is rare and likely cost prohibitive most times. Tend to pay down.
Ok, no color here? Did you forget to add the color? Nope…..no one earned it. The crapshoot that is TE will shine like a turd in sunshine this week.
In weeks like these, I tend to lean on two things most: Targets and Price. Find someone that makes sense there, close your eyes, and pull the trigger.
Remember, these boxes are set up by Shark Autopsy’s analysis of what players typically land in the Milli-Maker lineups, too. We have our safety plays, but we are also shooting for upside.
Where to Use These DFS Players
Box Checkers players are typically obvious, chalky (see our NFL Chalkboard Tool) and highly owned. Occasionally, we get some that slip under the radar (see our Leverage Stacks components).
However, these players can be used in ANY format from NFL cash games to big tourneys (or “Ladder Lineups” combining both!). The key to tourney play is using a core of these players and adding in some other lower owned pieces to give your lineup some uniqueness and creativity with the upside to beat a lot of competitors. As the DFS NFL world becomes more and more advanced, sometimes simplifying our process actually goes a little against the grain.
Now, How Would You Set Up an Optimizer?
I have backtested my own contests looking for the elusive “top 1%” and found a very fast and easy way to set up optimizers. Gone are the days of hours and hours of research. Make your own tweaks, but start winning more money this week.
Imagine how openly I share with our VIPs? Ask any question, and I will dive into YOUR game and help turn things around. (See how to join DFS Army below.)
Box Checkers Setup NFL Week 9
Don’t waste time duplicating the efforts of nerds! Focus on what matters….setting up optimizers. Here are two very fast ways that work.
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Plenty of box checkers in Week 8’s gpp winner. But, what’s up with all the goofy correlation? I broke the details down for our members in our #beginners-coaching Discord Channel. If you feel you struggle with stacking, correlation, leverage, and some of the finer points of lineup construction, you are going to want to use that discount above….and get involved.
We turn #Smallaballas into DFS pros every day. And, we can teach you to win 50,000 person gpps just like our coaches do. (It’s not as hard as you think…you just have to interact with us!)
Oh, and in case you want to see how these “Ladder Lineups” work out…..here’s an easy example. This is what we call a “sweep” in that it cashed everything. Ladders build bankrolls!!
