Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Nov 7, 2021; Los Angeles, California, USA; LA Clippers guard Paul George (13) drives to the basket past Charlotte Hornets guard Terry Rozier (3) during the second quarter at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
SF Paul George $10500
LAC vs POR
On a 3 game slate, the ownership will be more concentrated. Since there are only 2 10k+ priced players, George is going to get ownership probably 20%+. That will be lower than Giannis Antetokounmpo as the Bucks are still without Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez. The Bucks will be playing the shorthanded 76ers who are on a back-to-back. Milwaukee will be on the first leg of their back-to-back. Depending on how you look at it, the Clippers might have the better matchup against the Blazers. Both games have a 221 total but the Bucks are favored by 10. The Clippers game are favored by 3 so George could play more mins than Giannis and end up as the better play. Giannis’ 39 mins last game was an outlier as he played the entire 4th trying to come back. George normally plays that amount in close games.
George has a 34% usage rate averaging 1.44FPM. He is well worth this 5 digit price tag even though it might seem odd since he has been below 10k in previous years. The Blazers are league average in terms of defensive efficiency. He is forced to do everything with Kawhi Leonard out. Reggie Jackson and Eric Bledsoe are not strong playmakers. This has resulted in an increased assist rate. The Clippers close small at times which increases his rebound rate. Even in the games he has struggled with his shot, he has found ways to contribute in other categories. This will be the third time this season these two teams play each other. In the first one, George somehow had 0rebs but made up for it with 8 steals. He has a strong shot at being today’s high scorer.
C Jusuf Nurkic $7400
POR @ LAC
I wanted to give a center play but this position is a wasteland today after Andre Drummond. If that game blows out, then Nurkic could be the guy. Drummond is a lock even at that elevated price. For tournaments though, Nurkic is the pivot. Even though Clint Capela should get the mins to matchup with Rudy Gobert, I do not like that spot and his history against him. Nurkic’s minutes are a bit low but I still prefer him over Capela. The Clippers have a bottom-10 rebounding rate in the league. Nurkic is currently 4th in the league in rebounding chances averaging only 25mins/game. He trails Rudy Gobert, Jonas Valanciunas, and Domantas Sabonis who all play at least 31mins/game. Center mins against the Clippers are never safe, but when he is out there, he should dominate the glass.
Part of the reason he grabs so many boards is because the 4 players he shares court time with are not good rebounders. The Blazers have a small backcourt while Norman Powell and Robert Covington are there for other roles. With Ivica Zubac on the other side, Nurkic will be able to hang around in the paint for those rebounding chances. He is an underrated passer as he averaged 3-4asts the past three seasons. This year, he is only at 1.9 so that could increase, plus the Clippers allow the 9th-most assists to opposing centers. It is a matter of how productive Nurkic can be when he is out on the floor. He has averaged 1.33FPM which is by far the best on the team. Hopefully he starts hot so this could be the game he finally earns more minutes.
PG Jrue Holiday $6400
MIL @ PHI
I am not expecting Holiday to be under 20% but he will not be owned enough today due to his recent form. This will be his 3rd game back from injury. He played 30mins last game and posted 28.25DKpts. At $6400, that is not good enough. People who game log watch will shy away from Holiday since he has been a dud to start the year. The talent is undoubtedly there. He should be 8k with Middleton out once he gets full mins. Since Holiday played 30 last game, he should be able to get close to 35mins today if the game stays close. It is important to note that Mike Budenholzer did not stagger his mins with Giannis or Portis last game. The Bucks usually do so hopefully it happens this game as it would help all of them tremendously.
Last season, with Middleton and Lopez off the court, Holiday received a 3.9% usage boost averaging 0.12FPM more. That is a 26% usage rate at 1.25FPM. This season in the same situation, Holiday is at 27% averaging 0.92FPM. He is averaging -0.07FPM than with his teammates healthy. This small sample size should regress to the mean as the season goes on. He should benefit for the time being according to last year’s numbers. Giving Holiday 32mins might be conservative. Using that with his 1.25FPM rate last season, he would project for 40DKpts. That would make him an absolute steal. For max entry players, Holiday should be in the majority of your lineups. Again, he will not be low-owned. Rather, he will be low compared to how he usually is when the Bucks have players out.
PG/SG Bogdan Bogdanovic $5200
ATL @ UTA
Unless the Hawks rest players, Bogdanovic should be a low-owned option today. Targeting players against the Jazz usually is not optimal especially when that team has a healthy roster. However, there are only 3 games today. The Jazz have allowed the 2nd fewest DKpts to opposing PGs this season. That would mean Trae Young is in for a long night. With Rudy Gobert controlling the paint, possibly neutralizing Clint Capela and John Collins, that could open the door for Bogdanovic. Donovan Mitchell has not been a good defender as his rates are aided by the players surrounding him. Even if the Jazz elect to put Mitchell on De’Andre Hunter, Bojan Bogdanovic is not a lockdown defender. It will be fun to see the battle of the Bogdanovi but please make sure you are rostering the current one in your lineups.
Bogdan’s rates have been down to start the year. They are significantly lower compared to last year so they should start trending up soon. Last season, he had a 21.6% usage rate averaging 1FPM. Right now, Bogdan is at 17% and 0.78FPM. This is not the best matchup for a ceiling game but his rates are too far from where they should be. Though there might be some minutes concerns for teams on back-to-backs, he played 31 on Monday night. He could have played 36 had the game not blown out. Bogdan has been rebounding well even with Collins and Capela healthy. If Young has a rough start, Bogdan is the secondary playmaker and would have to step up. He is a skilled passer capable of making plays. His assists have been down but this could be the spot those go back up. Bogdan serves as a pivot from higher owned players in that price range including Shake Milton and Terance Mann.
Just missed the cut: Damian Lillard, Danny Green, George Hill, Paul Reed, Larry Nance Jr.
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
Get your NBA DFS season started hot right out of the gate by taking advantage of my coupon code below…
Use code: WILL for 10% Discount on VIP or Core 4 Memberships
