Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Nov 2, 2021; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guard Russell Westbrook (0) moves the ball up court against the Houston Rockets during the second half at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
PG Russell Westbrook $10400
LAL vs CHA
Coming off of an embarrassing loss and performance, the Lakers should be fired up for this one. With LeBron James still out and Anthony Davis questionable, Westbrook could be in store for a massive game. If Davis gets ruled out before lock, Westbrook will not be low-owned. Since this is the last game of the slate at 7:30pm PT, we probably will not get an update on AD’s status. That will keep Westbrook’s ownership low due to poor performances both in real life and fantasy the last few games. If AD ends up playing, I am still fine with Westbrook because taking James off the court is very significant. This season with James off the court, Westbrook has a 33.2% usage rate averaging 1.40FPM. That is a 4.4% usage bump and 0.21FPM increase from his regular rates.
This Hornets team will be coming off of a back-to-back. They lost a close one to the Clippers on Sunday night despite the score suggesting otherwise. Mason Plumlee played 25mins but he is a veteran and coming off a rib injury. Westbrook would get a bump to his rebounds if Plumlee rests. However, the Hornets closed with Miles Bridges at center vs Ivica Zubac. If the Hornets are going to use a no-center lineup, that allows Westbrook to grab more rebounds. With no James, Westbrook should be able to get back to his double-digit rebounding numbers. Whether AD is in or not, Westbrook needs to do the playmaking. He is going to score as well so the triple-double king could very well add another one in the column tonight.
PF DeMar DeRozan $8200
CHI vs BKN
The 4 key pieces of this Bulls team have been priced fairly for pretty much every single slate. As a result, none of them have been high-owned and that should be the case once again today. Though the prices might not make any of them attractive targets, they play heavy mins. DeRozan has been on an absolute tear to start the year but as usual with everything that he does, it goes unnoticed. He is a midrange maestro and scores efficiently year after year. Back when he was on the Spurs, he did not take any 3s. This season, he has added that back into his game. DeRozan currently has the 2nd-highest usage on the team at 30.1% averaging 1.22FPM only behind Zach LaVine (31.5%, 1.15FPM). I was going back and forth whether I wanted to put DeRozan or LaVine but opted to go with the former because of a few reasons.
PJ Dozier, Jordan Poole, and the 76ers should be chalky SG options. PF is much weaker with the best play on the slate, Frank Kaminsky and that is it. DeRozan’s rotations are favorable as he shares the court with Ball to begin the 2nd and 4th quarters. Alongside these 2 are a combination of Alex Caruso, Ayo Dosunmu, Derrick Jones Jr, and Tony Bradley. DeRozan dominates the usage in this unit. Though Ball will steal his assist share, he helps set DeRozan up with good looks. DeRozan is averaging 3.7asts on the year but his potential asts sits at 8.3. He also has a significant difference in his rebounding chances with 5.9 vs 8.3 chances. DeRozan is also $400 cheaper than LaVine. Many of the studs today have concerns so paying up for someone in the 8k range might end up optimal.
SG/SF Buddy Hield $6000
SAC vs PHX
Hield is more of a piece that makes your lineup work. He should not be the first guy in but his price and position can round out your build nicely. Looking at the SF options, there is nobody between $5600-$6500 except for Hield. If you end up in this range, go ahead and take Hield. The Suns have allowed the 6th most 3pt attempts this season and have not played in any OT games yet. Whether you think of Hield as a SG or a SF, the Suns have allowed the 2nd most 3s to the SG position and the 7th most to the SF position. These two teams have already matched up once this season. Hield posted 43.25DK pts in only 27mins. The Kings are on a back-to-back but there is no travel. The Suns will be without DeAndre Ayton in this one which should weaken their defense.
Last season, Hield actually played better with 0 days of rest. He shot 3% better from 3. That is only a 9 game sample size but it is nice to see his performances do not drop off because of back-to-backs. Though he has been relegated to a bench role this year, it has helped his usage. He is able to get more looks. Right now, he is 2nd on the team in usage at 24.7% averaging 1.10FPM. The Kings generally have on of Richaun Holmes or Alex Len on the court. Both of them are not centers that they can dump the ball to and get a basket. Then there is corner stander Mo Harkless. Hield is one of the premier long-range thereats in the league and will have no problem getting his shots up especially in a matchup that suits his game.
C Steven Adams $4500
MEM vs MIN
Many people got burned by Adams last slate. It was the wrong matchup but because people do not look into this, he is going to be lower-owned today. The Grizzlies closing lineup depends on their matchup. Adams closed against the Cavaliers, Lakers, and Nuggets. Those teams have big frontcourts which allow Adams to be out there for more mins. Last game, the Grizzlies played the Wizards, a team that uses Daniel Gafford and Montrezl Harrell at center. Both of those players are more suitable matchups for Jaren Jackson Jr. plus the game blew out. Here we are today with Karl-Anthony Towns. Though he can stretch the floor, he is an interior force. There certainly will be foul trouble risk but that comes with most centers defending high-usage players. Since Adams will be the best player to throw on Towns, the minutes should be there in this one.
Adams is averaging 1.02FPM this season. If he does get 30mins, he would project to return 6.8x value. Adams currently has the 25th most rebounding chances in the league. Though that might not be as high as we would like it to be, he only averages 25mins/game. Everyone ahead of him plays more mins. Despite being listed at 6’11” and possibly now over 7 foot tall, Jackson is not a good rebounder. This works in favor of Adams’ rebounding share. The knock against this play is that Adams is only center eligible. There are a few stand-out centers such as Joel Embiid and Jonas Valanciunas (if Brandon Ingram out). Then there is JaVale McGee as a value.
Just missed the cut: Kevin Durant, John Collins, Lonzo Ball, Tyrese Haliburton, Will Barton, Cam Reddish, Garrett Temple (if Brandon Ingram AND Herbert Jones out), Malik Monk (if AD out)
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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