Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Nov 3, 2021; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers guard Caris LeVert (22) dribbles the ball while New York Knicks guard Alec Burks (18) defends in the second half at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
PG Stephen Curry $10700
GSW vs HOU
Curry is coming off of three disappointing games in a row. All three have been blowout victories. This game against the Rockets has similar concerns as this one sits at a 13 point spread in favor of the Warriors. The Rockets played the Nuggets on Saturday so they will be on a back-to-back which is already factored into the Vegas odds. On the other hand, this game features 2 of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA. The Warriors rank 7th in pace while the Rockets are 1st. This Houston team has been very competitive recently with an up-and-coming team of talented offensive players. Golden State will be resting Andre Iguodala, someone who has been instrumental for them through the years. This season, he has been a key part to their bench rotation, contributing important minutes while Curry rests. Without him, the non-Curry mins should tilt in favor of the Rockets and hopefully keep this game close.
Anytime Giannis Antetokounmpo is on the slate, he is near the top of ownership. With Khris Middleton still out, and a perceived juicy matchup against the Wizards, he should be the highest-owned stud once again. I caution against targeting the Wizards because they are playing at the 19th fastest pace and have the 10th best defensive efficiency this season. Jrue Holiday and Bobby Portis are getting healthier and both can take away some usage. Paul George is cheaper than Curry and has produced solid fantasy point totals even in poor shooting games. Jordan Poole has been shooting lights out recently. He has shown significant improvement, but it is tough to trust anybody on this team other than Curry. If the supporting cast does not show up, this game will be close and it will be up to the Chef to deliver his team the win.
SG/SF Caris LeVert $6900
IND @ SAC
LeVert was chalk on Friday’s slate. He let everyone down by scoring only 28DKpts in 34mins without Malcolm Brogdon. He shot 6/21 including 0/8 from 3. The Pacers continue their west coast trip with a date against the Kings today. The Pacers will be in a pace-up spot as Sacramento plays at the 5th fastest pace. They also have the 10th worst defensive efficiency rating. This game has a slate-high total at 224 with the Kings favored by 1 point. It would be nice for Brogdon to miss for LeVert to be an even better play. That of course would come with higher ownership. Since LeVert failed on Friday, he will be lower-owned today. Even if Brogdon plays, LeVert is too cheap. With the red OPRK next to his name, that helps lower his ownership just a bit even further.
On the year, LeVert has a whopping 32.8% usage rate averaging 1.13FPM. He contributes with the peripherals and should have plenty of chances to in this high-scoring affair. In a typical game, LeVert is not going to brick every 3 that he takes. That happened last game and he put up 28DKpts. At $6900, making just a couple more shots would put him at 5x. There is huge upside with LeVert at this price and matchup. Recency bias and if Brogdon returns will both lower LeVert’s ownership. I like him either way so he makes the article today. If Brogdon misses again, LeVert likely gets above 20%. He would possibly be a lock play at that point.
SG/SF Kelly Oubre Jr. $4300
CHA @ LAC
Oubre’s price has plummeted since Terry Rozier returned. He has played 21, 13, and 14mins his last three games. The Hornets have been blown out in the last three so he would play more minutes in closer games. Oubre shot 5/22 including 1-11 during that stretch. For him to have a good game, he needs to shoot decently and grab rebounds. At this price though, he does not need to be scorching hot to be a good play. Even though Rozier is back, PJ Washington is still out so that helps the wings accrue more mins. On the year, Oubre has a 19.7% usage rate averaging 0.85FPM. Last year as a member of the Warriors, Oubre had a 21.8% usage rate averaging 0.92FPM. There are more mouths to feed on this Charlotte team than that Golden State team so that usage decrease is expected.
Oubre is a perfect tournament target as his playing time is dictated by his performance. If he is playing well, he will pick up more mins and close the game. He is too talented of a player to be priced at $4300. Yes, he is coming off the bench, but that can be a positive for many players as he gets more usage that way rather than having to fight for shots with the starters. The playing time and the matchup are the concerns. He will be single-digit owned but has by far the highest upside in this price range. Guys like Mitchell Robinson and Luke Kennard seem safer, but Oubre is an absolute threat for 10x here. Do not go overboard with him. If he starts well, he could be a tournament winner by the end of the night.
SF/PF Otto Porter Jr. $3400
GSW vs HOU
Porter makes his 2nd appearance in my article this season. Once again, it is because Andre Iguodala will be resting for this game. That was the 10/24 game against the Kings in which Porter closed and played 24mins putting up 28.75DKpts at $3900. Porter is a 3-and-D player but with the current Warriors roster, there are a lot of rebounds to grab. With his size, he is able to rack up a good number of rebounds each game. In this matchup, he should be able to do that as the Rockets play at the fastest pace in the NBA. As a defensive player, Porter racks up steals. He currently is averaging 0.8stls but he has not gotten a lot of playing time. The Rockets lead the league in turnovers with 20/game. This has resulted in a league-leading 11.4stls/game for Rockets’ opponents.
Not too much stands out on this slate right now. There is no glaring value like the past few slates with Ivica Zubac, Patrick Beverley, and the 76ers. Generally, stars and scrubs slates win tournaments. There are a few stars to pay up for so Porter could be a valuable piece to your lineup construction process. The Iguodala news is going to go under the radar. It did last time he was out resulting in a 2% owned Porter. If we are still devoid of value by lock, maybe Porter gets to 10% but nothing he has done recently makes him stand out. Similar to Oubre, do not go all-in on Porter. At near minimum price, it would be hard for him to ruin your night. He looks like a very sneaky value today.
Just missed the cut: Kevin Porter Jr., Terry Rozier, Collin Sexton, Kemba Walker, Bobby Portis, Lonnie Walker IV, Damion Lee
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
Get your NBA DFS season started hot right out of the gate by taking advantage of my coupon code below…
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