Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Nov 1, 2021; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Celtics guard Marcus Smart (36) reacts during the first half against the Chicago Bulls at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
PG Damian Lillard $9400
POR vs LAL
At some point, this man is going to figure it out. As a Laker fan, I have seen Lillard hit every clutch shot to conclude multiple signature games against the Lakers. Russell Westbrook is on the other side in this one and we all remember what happened a few years ago in the playoffs. There is no explanation for his struggles to start the year other than that he is in a slump. Maybe he is playing hurt but we just do not know about it since Lillard does not make excuses. Regardless, Lillard is going to be low-owned. He has been awful. Westbrook could be playing without both of his star teammates. Joel Embiid is playing literally by himself. Jayson Tatum is playing without Jaylen Brown. Whenever the Lillard 60+DKpt game happens, it is going to come at low ownership.
His peripherals have been very strong to start the year. Perhaps he is trying to facilitate more to contribute to his team in other ways when he cannot get his shot to drop. He has already had 5 double-digit assist games this year. Of course, these assist numbers will drop once he starts hitting his shots. The Blazers are on a back-to-back but they will be playing at home again so no travel. The Lakers have not blown any team out this season. They will be missing LeBron James and possibly Anthony Davis. This game should be close meaning Lillard will be in store for another heavy workload. This is strictly a tournament play. Go with Westbrook, Embiid, and Tatum, but Lillard has the upside to outscore them.
C Clint Capela $7100
ATL @ PHX
Capela has now played 33, 33, and 36mins in his last 3 games. We got word that he is no longer on a minutes restriction and his recent game log confirms that. In the pair of 33min games, the Hawks played the Wizards and the Nets. He was matched up against Montrezl Harrell, Blake Griffin, and LaMarcus Aldridge. John Collins would be able to handle those matchups as the center but Nate McMillan decided to role with Capela. Last game, Capela’s mins were matched up with Rudy Gobert. In this game, his mins could mirror Deandre Ayton. The Jazz use Royce O’Neale at the 4 so since the Hawks let John Collins play with Capela there, they should do the same with the Suns as they use Jae Crowder at the 4.
Joel Embiid is the big dog at center. Ayton looks to be a top 2 center option on this slate next to Embiid. He is $6500 and is the better play over Capela. However, he will be significantly higher-owned than Capela. Capela has the potential to play more mins than Ayton and is a better shot blocker. There are always ways to fail as a center, such as foul trouble. Capela was at 1.30FPM last year. He is currently at 1.04. The Hawks have struggled a bit to begin the year. They should be able to figure it out soon as their roster is too talented. After this past week, I have my eyes on Capela. He is one of the premier rebounders and lob threats in the league today. One of his 20-15 games could be coming soon. This is not the best matchup, but it is a 5 game slate.
PG/SG Marcus Smart $5300
BOS @ DAL
Jaylen Brown has been ruled out for this game. People will have their eyes on Jayson Tatum and Dennis Schroder. Do not forget about Marcus Smart. Last season with Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown, and Evan Fournier off the court, Smart received a 3.9% usage increase to 22.1% and a 0.09FPM bump to 1.00FPM. The Celtics do have Schroder this season so those rates could be a little bit less. Using the 1FPM rate, if he were to play 35mins, he would 7x this price tag. It is certainly possible that he plays more than 35mins since they need his defense vs Luka Doncic. There are going to be a lot of shots opened up. Smart is not afraid to shoot. He has not had the best start to the season. He is shooting 31% and 28% from 3. Smart is known for his defense, but his offensive game has come a long way since his college days. These percentages will start to trend upwards.
It is fine to play Schroder and Smart together, but he could act as a pivot. Schroder should see the biggest bump in terms of playing time. That is not going to go unnoticed so the ownership will reflect that. My guess would be that Smart ends up under 16%. He is a great play but we have seen Smart put up some lofty assist totals. He could do it today with Brown out. Even if he does not, he is a very strong contributor across the board. Smart rebounds the ball tremendously for his size. He currently averages 2.4stls a game. If he can knock down just a few 3s, we are looking at the fire emoji next to his score today.
PF/C Paul Reed $3000
PHI @ CHI
Some of you might not even know who Paul Reed is. Well, allow me to sell you on him. Reed is in play if Furkan Korkmaz and Danny Green are both ruled out. That would leave the 76ers with only 8 players available for this game. Philadelphia had 9 healthy bodies last game but only played 8, leaving Charles Bassey on the bench. Now Matisse Thybulle, who played 30mins last game, is out too. Aside from Reed and Drummond, everyone else played at least 30mins. There is not much else the 76ers can do other than to give Reed more mins. The alternative is to use a 2 center lineup allowing Bassey to step on the floor. That is not the best idea as the Bulls use smaller 4s which would be a mismatch if Doc Rivers decides to do this. We saw how 8 man rotations were fantasy gold last season. This would be the case again if the questionable players end up being ruled out.
Reed should be low-owned because he would come off the bench. Last game with Thybulle active, Reed played 15mins. The 76ers went on a run to start the 4th so Reed never played in that quarter. The Bulls are expected to win this one with nearly a healthy team. If this game were to blowout, Reed is getting all the mins. Plus, Embiid only played 30mins last game on a back-to-back. He will be rested, but he has been constantly dealing with a knee injury. Philly is trying to take it easy on him whenever possible. Rivers tends to pull his starters a bit early if the game gets lopsided. Reed is a mobile energy big man. He is not a great shooter but he can get defensive stats. They call him B-Ball Paul. If Armoni Brooks, DaQuan Jeffries can do it, so can Paul Reed.
Just missed the cut: Jae Crowder, Duncan Robinson, Charles Bassey (if Green, Korkmaz out)
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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