Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Nov 1, 2021; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal (3) is defended by Atlanta Hawks forward De’Andre Hunter (12) in the second quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
SG Bradley Beal $9500
WAS vs MEM
There is not a clear star to pay up for today. Jrue Holiday is expected to return so that hurts Giannis Antetokounmpo just a bit. The Wizards have not been playing anywhere close to the pace they did last season. The main reason for this is because Russell Westbrook is no longer pushing the pace for them. In addition, the Wizards have played some of the slower-paced teams to start the year. They have played the Hawks twice, the 2nd slowest team. The Celtics and Raptors do not play uptempo either. Those days of 120+, 240 total games seem to be gone. However, we should expect Washington to play in some more fantasy-friendly games soon. They get a date with the Grizzlies who have the worst defensive efficiency to begin the year at 111. The Wizards themselves are not gifted defensively so this has some shootout potential.
Beal has a 33.9% usage rate which is right where he was last year at 34%. His FPM is actually a bit worse so there might be some better days ahead for him. Beal is contributing with the peripherals nicely so far even averaging close to 2stls a game. He is the clear #1 option in an exploitable matchup today. His recent games show that he could hit close to 40mins. With Kyle Kuzma ready for this one, Beal does not pop out of the page. Since it is a forearm injury, if Kuzma were to struggle with his shot, the Wizards would elect to go to the others more. On a 9 game slate with plenty of spend-up options, he should be low-owned.
PG De’Aaron Fox $8400
SAC vs CHA
The Kings are known for playing fast and playing no defense. Today they will be playing the Hornets, who play faster and play less defense than they do. The Hornets are playing at the 9th fastest pace right now and rank 4th worst in defensive efficiency at 109.7. Fox is one of a handful of players who have gotten off to a slow start this season. He is shooting 38.5%, including 19% from 3. These shooting struggles have led to a dip in his FPM, which is at 0.96, and a 27.6% usage rate. Last season, Fox had a 31% usage rate averaging 1.25FPM. The Kings have kept their core so this type of decrease in production is inexplicable. He is going to turn it around because he is just too talented. This is simply a slow start.
Anytime the Hornets are on the slate, I will target their opponent. LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier are not good defenders. PJ Washington is out so they will have to play Mason Plumlee or someone who is not used to playing center. Fox’s shot will start to fall. This is an exploitable matchup on every level. The Hornets have allowed the 7th most assists to opposing PGs. There should be a solid number of assists to supply Fox for a ceiling game. With Fox’s poor form to start the year, and the Kings being fully healthy, he will go low-owned tonight.
PF Keldon Johnson $5200
SAS @ ORL
Jakob Poeltl will miss several games. Drew Eubanks drew the start last game but only played 19mins. Eubanks and Thaddeus Young split the center mins until the 4th quarter where Gregg Popovich closed with Doug McDermott at the 5. I am not sure that is going to happen again as Wendall Carter Jr and Mo Bamba are quite different compared to Dwight Powell. If somehow the Spurs go small again, Johnson will get a huge boost to his rebounding. Poeltl dominates the boards so there is already a boost going from him to Eubanks/Thad Young. If the Spurs go with a lineup that does not contain either of the 2, Johnson might be the best rebounder on the floor for the Spurs.
Johnson leads the team with a 25% usage rate. His mins have been all over the place due to foul trouble and blowouts. If he can simply stick to the fundamentals and not be overly aggressive trying to box out Carter, he should have a great game here. On the offensive side, Johnson is more agile than Carter or any of the Magic players that could potentially be guarding him. The Magic have the 2nd worst defensive efficiency rating at 110.7. Johnson has not shot well recently. As a result, he has burned many DFS players on those slates where he is the chalk. A matchup with the Magic does not stand out especially on a big slate. His price continues to drop but Poeltl does make a difference for Johnson.
C Ivica Zubac $4000
LAC @ MIN
Jarrett Allen should be the chalk center today with Kevin Love and Lauri Markkanen out. Zubac played a season-high 34mins last game vs this same Wolves team. The Clippers do not have Serge Ibaka and Marcus Morris available so Zubac is their best option to matchup against Karl-Anthony Towns. In Zubac’s career vs Towns, he has never eclipsed 22mins until Wednesday. In those previous meetings, the Clippers had quality centers healthy. It is a different story right now for the team. There is always risk with Zubac as the Clippers could go small a different way or he gets into foul trouble. However, that low price helps mitigate those risks.
Zubac averages 0.91FPM on the season. In 34mins last game, he scored 24DKpts. That is 0.71FPM. He should be much more productive given the mins. Towns plays heavy mins for a center and will be tasked to handle even more today with D’Angelo Russell out again. Ty Lue should try to match the mins so another game of around 34mins could be in store for Zubac. It is by no means a guarantee. The upside is clearly there. If we knew Zubac would play 30+ mins at 4k, how much Zubac would you play? I would play a lot.
Just missed the cut: Domantas Sabonis, Derrick White, Buddy Hield, Alec Burks
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
Get your NBA DFS season started hot right out of the gate by taking advantage of my coupon code below…
Use code: WILL for 10% Discount on VIP or Core 4 Memberships
