Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Oct 27, 2021; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) celebrates after a score against the Los Angeles Lakers during the second half at Paycom Center. Oklahoma City won 123-115. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander $8400
OKC @ LAL
With a 5 game slate today with possibly some big spreads, fading a player anticipating a blowout could be a fatal mistake. The Thunder are +13 vs the Lakers. Many teams are on a back-to-back and there are a number of key injuries to monitor. If Joel Embiid is out for rest, that leaves only the Lakers Big 3 as the 10k+ players remaining on this slate. There are already some terrific values so paying up for players should be fairly easy even if someone feels a bit overpriced. In the games that the Thunder have kept close, SGA has played 36, 38, 39, and 40 mins. Though it is clear the Thunder are tanking, Mark Daigneault is playing his starters heavy mins. As the clear #1 option for his team, SGA will need to have a solid game for the Thunder to be competitive against the Lakers.
The Lakers have not blown out anybody this season. The biggest point differential came in their 12 point victory vs Cleveland. They have played some inferior opponents including the Cavaliers, Rockets, and Thunder already. SGA was priced in the 6k range not too long ago so this $8400 price tag should have some sticker shock to DFS players. With blowout concerns for Christian Wood, Devin Booker, and Chris Paul, SGA’s price is not expensive at all. Lu Dort missed last game vs the Clippers and is listed as questionable for today’s game. In 63 mins, SGA has received a 3.4% usage bump and 0.14FPM increase with Dort off the floor this season. That equals a 31.8% usage rate at 1.24FPM. Even if Dort plays, he is not stealing the show from SGA. This spot is not as worrisome as it seems.
PF/C John Collins $7100
ATL vs UTA
There are a lot of question marks surrounding this game. Out of the 5 games on this slate, I think this is the most intriguing one. With Rudy Gobert ruled out, Hassan Whiteside at $4100 is the lock of the century. Now, will people factor in Gobert’s absence for the opposing team? From what has happened in the past, the answer is: not significantly. Whether you like him or not, Gobert is a top defensive player in the NBA. While Whiteside blocks a lot of shots, he is a stat-stuffer of blocks. If you have watched him play, you know what I mean. He is not a good defender. That makes this matchup for the Hawks a lot easier. It is by no means, easy. The Jazz are a top team for a reason. Mike Conley, Joe Ingles, and Royce O’Neale all are solid perimeter defenders. With this being a back-to-back for the Hawks, combined with the perceived tough matchup against the Jazz, the Hawks should be low-owned.
Collins was listed as questionable with a foot injury on Wednesday but then proceeded to play 37 mins. Clint Capela has faced a mins restriction to begin the year. He looks like to be off of it but this is a back-to-back. The Jazz play O’Neale at the 4 so it allows the Hawks to go small and play Reddish, Huerter, Gallinari, etc. and move Collins to center. Collins has been in the 6k range all season until now. To start the game, Collins is too big for O’Neale (if he plays). He is too talented for Eric Paschall to stop him. To close the game, Collins can step out to the perimeter and get easy looks as Whiteside does not contest jump shots. This is a very sneaky spot for the entire Hawks team. Since Collins has the safer role compared to Capela, and is impacted the most by Gobert being out, he is my Hawk of choice.
PG Tyrese Maxey $5500
PHI @ DET
The 76ers are trying to get Joel Embiid rest whenever possible. This will be a back-to-back for Philadelphia. They can certainly win this game without Embiid as they beat the Blazers without him recently. If Embiid is out, get over the field on Maxey. He was only 16% owned vs Portland. Maxey has huge upside but has not flashed it yet this season. Though Shake Milton is no longer on a minutes restriction, it is clear that the starting PG job belongs to Maxey. He played 37mins Wednesday night vs Chicago. I am not worried about that as he is only 21 years old. It certainly makes a huge difference whether Embiid plays or not but Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, and Danny Green have already been ruled out.
Opposing defenses can now easily double Embiid in the post. As the playmaker, Maxey should be able to have a solid assist total every game until Harris returns. Seth Curry will get his shots but he does not excel at creating his own shot. Maxey is an important part of this team with the current roster the 76ers have available. Though Maxey is young, the Pistons start a pair of inexperienced guards. He should have a 30+DKpt game while multiple starters are out. Since he has technically failed recently, his ownership will be low. He has put up 23-24DKpt games consistently with Tobias Harris playing. He put up 36.75DKpts in his best game this season. Maxey certainly should be able to put up a better game with Harris out.
PF/C Kelly Olynyk $5100
DET vs PHI
Olynyk was massive chalk on the Sunday slate and that did not go well. The Pistons have been in 2 straight blowouts limiting his playing time to 21 and 16mins. In the games that Detroit has been competitive in, Olynyk has subbed in for Isaiah Stewart and played the entire 2nd half. If Embiid plays, Stewart has massive foul trouble risk that could allow Olynyk to get extended run. Even if Stewart can keep his hands to himself, the Pistons do not stagger the starters’ mins. That allows Olynyk to soak up the usage on the 2nd unit. Cory Joseph will be running the pick and roll and pick and pop nonstop with Olynyk. With Embiid and Drummond’s physical shapes, Olynyk’s ability to stretch the floor will be difficult for the 76ers to defend.
The PF eligibility could be huge depending on the number of value centers we get. Whiteside is one but we may get a few more by lock. Recency bias always exists in the DFS world. Olynyk is too talented of a player to be this cheap even with his bench role. Not playing with Cade Cunningham, Saddiq Bey and Jerami Grant are to his benefit. Olynyk leads the team in FPM at 1.19. He is 2nd in usage at 24.1% only to Grant. Olynyk might seem a bit volatile, but he has a clear path to increased mins. If this game is close, Olynyk should be an excellent play. He has 8x potential at this price but will be much lower than the 30-40% he was owned at on Sunday.
Just missed the cut: Trae Young, Jerami Grant, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Isaiah Stewart (if Embiid out), Danilo Gallinari, Eric Paschall
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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