Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Nov 22, 2021; Sacramento, California, USA; Sacramento Kings forward Richaun Holmes (22) dunks the ball against the Philadelphia 76ers during the third quarter at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
PG/SG Fred VanVleet $8700
TOR vs MEM
A lot of players have been priced up for today’s 5 game slate. I thought about putting De’Aaron Fox here. Right now, I do not have a strong lean in either direction so it will come down to ownership. They both have similar ceilings but Fox has only PG eligibility and a lower floor. All 5 games do have relatively high totals and close spreads. The Raptors will be without OG Anunoby today and possibly Gary Trent Jr. as well. Taking Anunoby out of the lineup, VanVleet has a 26.2% usage rate on the season averaging 1.10FPM. That is a 2.5% usage bump with Anunoby off the floor. Removing Trent would bump these rates to 26.9% and 1.21FPM. People are not used to seeing FVV priced this high but he deserves it with the Raptors injuries.
The Raptors played their most recent game without Anunoby and Trent. Nick Nurse used 10 players but it was really an 8-man rotation with Justin Champagnie playing 7mins and Dalano Banton playing 3mins. FVV played a whopping 40mins with a 24.2% usage rate. There are a few things working in FVV’s favor today. The Raptors are favored by 6 at home against the Grizzlies in a 219.5 total. Instead of guarding Ja Morant, VanVleet gets to guard Tyus Jones. This is an easier matchup that allows FVV to expend more energy offensively. The Grizzlies have the worst defensive efficiency rating in the league. They allow the highest 3pt % as well. Furthermore, they allow the 2nd-most DKpts to opposing PGs, including the most assists. VanVleet is set up extremely well today regardless of whether Trent plays or not.
C Richaun Holmes $6200
SAC vs LAL
Holmes has missed the past 3 games with an eye injury and illness. He is not on the injury report for today’s game. There should not be any sort of restriction since it has been a short absence. He will reclaim his starting center role. With new coach Alvin Gentry at the helm, Marvin Bagley III is back in the rotation. The Kings have plenty of players capable of playing center. That is concerning but someone should be a DNP with Holmes healthy now. Harrison Barnes is doubtful while Moe Harkless is questionable so there are minutes available for the other centers to play power forward. With the flurry of centers, people should be hesitant to play Holmes today. This matchup is not that appealing either.
The Lakers are tough inside with DeAndre Jordan, Dwight Howard, and Anthony Davis. However, the Lakers have not been playing well this season. This has kept games from blowing out which keeps the starters in for the entire game. Holmes is in a 227 total as a 3.5 dog. If Holmes can stay out of foul trouble, he should smash this price tag. It is the best game environment on the slate. Taking Barnes off the floor, Holmes has a 19% usage rate averaging 1.03FPM. That is actually 0.08FPM lower of a rate but it is only a 106min sample size. Luke Walton would often bench Holmes and it remains to be seen if he is on Gentry’s good or bad side. There are reports the Lakers are experimenting with different starting units so be sure to keep an eye on the lineup.
SG/SF Evan Fournier $4900
NYK @ BKN
Fournier is a very contrarian play. With the news of Kemba Walker no longer in the rotation, many will be rostering Alec Burks and Immanuel Quickley. RJ Barrett is questionable with an illness. Last game with Walker and Rose out, Fournier played 29mins, including closing time. If Barrett is out, it solidifies Fournier’s minutes. Barrett did not close on Saturday. If Barrett plays, he could close today ahead of Fournier. Since Burks and Quickley will carry the ownership if Rose is out, the other Knicks will automatically be low-owned. This is purely a move to get away from the chalk. In a matchup against the high-powered Nets, someone on the Knicks likely has to have a big game for this to be competitive.
The matchup looks dreadful. The Nets are tied for the 6th-best defensive efficiency rating this season. They allow the lowest opponent 3pt FG%. When Fournier was on the Celtics last year, he was getting cooked by everyone on the Nets. He could not stay on the floor. Now let us get to the positives. That was the playoffs. Individual matchups are far more important when the game slows down as teams will pick on the poor defenders. Fournier could be forced to play big minutes depending on how the injury situations go for the Knicks. He had a 26.9% usage rate against the Hawks on Saturday. This was barely behind Alec Burks. Understand that Fournier is shot-dependent. This is a boom or bust play but makes perfect sense to get away from his chalky teammates.
PF/C Brandon Clarke $3700
MEM @ TOR
This seems like either a Kyle Anderson or Brandon Clarke game. Anderson likely picks up more ownership because he can play small forward mins and can play make. Steven Adams had a nice game on Saturday against the Kings. The Kings have many traditional centers that allowed Adams to stay on the court. This matchup does not suit Adams well. The Grizzlies should go with more mobile lineups which will include Clarke and Jaren Jackson Jr. at center. These two also play alongside each other. Clarke should be in for some more playing time because of the matchup, but also since the Kings game blew out. He was low-owned last slate and should be so again today.
We potentially have Svi Mykhailiuk and Terrence Davis value again today. They are both priced right there with Clarke. Since Clarke is coming off of the bench, he is going to be owned at a fraction of what the other two will be. With Morant off the floor, Clarke has a 18.5% usage rate averaging 1.15FPM. He is very productive when he is out on the court. There have been instances this season where Clarke has closed ahead of Adams. The Raptors closed with Pascal Siakam and Precious Achiuwa in their frontcourt Saturday. Countering this with JJJ and Clarke seems more ideal than JJJ and Adams. If Adams becomes high-owned, this is even a better play.
Just missed the cut: James Harden, Damian Lillard, Julius Randle, De’Aaron Fox, Dillon Brooks, Isaiah Stewart, Mitchell Robinson (if Nerlens Noel and Taj Gibson out), Killian Hayes, Jae Crowder, Robert Covington, James Johnson
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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