Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
October 21, 2021; San Francisco, California, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) celebrates against the LA Clippers during the fourth quarter at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
PG Stephen Curry $11100
GSW vs CHA
With 11 games today, the ownership will be spread out. The 76ers will be without Tobias Harris making Joel Embiid the likely chalk spend-up option. I really like Luka Doncic coming off of a dud at 40% ownership Tuesday night, but I will go with Chef Curry. This game has a slate-high 226.5 total with the Warriors favored by 6. Curry has had 2 poor fantasy games in his last 3 outings with 38.5DKpts vs OKC and 41.25DKpts again vs OKC. He only played 32 and 27 mins in those games so I am not concerned one bit. Curry has a 33.3% usage rate averaging 1.51FPM to start the year. He will still be playing without his Splash Brother, Klay Thompson. Crazy things can happen when the Warriors are playing in the Bay. They will be at home tonight where Curry plays better.
As mentioned previously, Hornets games have been high-scoring and competitive, making them attractive fantasy targets. Looking at the Warriors roster, it is tough to get to anyone else at their respective prices. For an 11 game slate, not to much stands out at PG. Devonte’ Graham and Jalen Brunson could be the highest-owned players at this position if their teammates, Brandon Ingram and Kristaps Porzingis are out again. Curry being priced over 11k and trailing only Nikola Jokic today should keep his ownership low. Nothing stands out from 8-10k except Jonas Valanciunas. There probably will be some slate-changing news as we get closer to lock but it seems that paying up for someone in the 5 digits is the way to go right now.
SF/PF Josh Hart $4900
NOP @ SAC
The Pelicans are playing at the 10th fastest pace while the Kings are 4th. Hart will be getting a small bump not only with the game environment, but also possibly with his role. If Ingram were to play, cross Hart off. Both teams will be on a back-to-back. This could lead to some tired legs and missed shots but that could work in favor of Hart. He is one of the best rebounding guards in the league. With his activity on the glass and defensive ability, he has played the 3 and the 4 quite a bit. Though JoVal will dominate the glass, especially if Richaun Holmes were to miss this game, Hart should be able to grab close to 10rebs in this spot. The Kings have allowed the 5th most rebounds this season. Hart is starting and should see at least 30mins.
Holmes picked up a knee injury Tuesday but returned to the game. With this being a back-to-back, he could sit out. If he plays, it does not change anything as he is an undersized big man. The Kings use Mo Harkless and Harrison Barnes at PF which allows Hart to play the 4 as well. He seems to be healthy now and ready for a full workload. Hart’s back-to-back splits last season leave a lot to be desired. However, the Pelicans rested a lot of players either on the front-end or back-end so looking at those numbers without any context would not be useful. With Zion Williamson and potentially Ingram out, the rebounding opportunities will be there. Hart is a scrappy player meaning he should be able to get some defensive stats. If he can knock down some shots, he is a threat for 8x value.
C Daniel Gafford $4700
WAS vs TOR
There is a lot of opportunity cost on big slates for paying down at center. If you choose to take a value big man, you need to take one with huge upside. Gafford posted some monster games last season so there is no doubt that he can do that. The concern is that Montrezl Harrell has played extremely well to begin the year. He took advantage of his increased playing time while Gafford was sidelined. Seeing only 15mins played in his first game back could be a turn-off. However, he was in significant foul trouble every time he stepped onto the court. To begin the year, he lost minutes due to blowout. He probably will not see 30+ mins but he does not need to at this price.
Gafford has a 16.6% usage rate averaging 1.10FPM to start this season. He had better rates last year at 18.4% and 1.26FPM. I think he should trend upwards towards last year’s mark. Assuming it is a 24-24 min split between Gafford and Harrell, a 1.2FPM rate would project Gafford to score 28.8DKpts. That is just a projection so the ceiling would be in the high 30s. The Raptors have allowed Mo Bamba and Myles Turner to post some big fantasy games. With Precious Achiuwa and Khem Birch at center, Gafford should be able to stay out of foul trouble and be productive in this spot at home.
SG/SF Malik Beasley $4100
MIN vs LAC
D’Angelo Russell has already been ruled out for this game. This will make Jordan McLaughlin the highest-owned player of the slate at minimum price. Since Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns are healthy, people will not want to roster too many Wolves players. I think rostering both McLaughlin and Beasley could work but I like Beasley as a pivot off of McLaughlin. It is hard to go wrong with a 3k starting PG. Some will lock him in for all 150 lineups. In the event that there is another solid value play, I do not hate the idea of at least having some lineups without McLaughlin.
This matchup against the Clippers should mean that Jaden McDaniels and Jarred Vanderbilt will see significant time to guard Paul George. If they both close alongside Edwards and Towns, that leaves only 1 spot left. Since both of those players are more defensive-minded, having Beasley out there to have another offensive weapon seems logical. Plus, Patrick Beverley practiced Tuesday and could be available for this game. There are certainly ways that chalk McLaughlin could go wrong. It is only a 75min sample size but Beasley has a 4.4% usage increase and averages 0.14FPM more with DLo off the court this season. Though he is shot-dependent, there are a lot of shots freed up with DLo out. He does not need to do a whole at this price tag.
Just missed the cut: Damian Lillard, De’Aaron Fox, Darius Garland, Collin Sexton, Michael Porter Jr., Keldon Johnson, Khem Birch
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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