NBA DFS Basketball Low-Owned Tournament Projections Picks for DraftKings 11/26/2021

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Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.”  But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…

Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.

Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!

Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…

PG/SG D’Angelo Russell $7400

MIN @ CHA

‘Tis the day after Thanksgiving. Hopefully, there are not any effects of a Thanksgiving hangover for the players. We have a big slate again with 11 games on the main slate. Anthony Edwards will be one of the chalkier options following his 69.5DKpt performance on Wednesday against the Heat. I am not sure where Karl-Anthony Towns will end up because he has somewhat struggled this season. That should keep his ownership low but the center position is surprisingly weak today which could then drive up his popularity. Therefore, I am going with D’Angelo Russell. Patrick Beverley is out today with a groin injury. With him off the court, Russell has a 27.2% usage rate averaging 1.16FPM. This is the same production as that of Anthony Edwards.

Beverley should be replaced by Malik Beasley. Whether Beasley starts or not, he will pick up most of the mins as he played a whopping 38mins last game. Beasley is a scorer who does not do much else. This should benefit everyone because Beverley can contribute across the board. DLo should see a bump in his assist rate. This game has one of the higher totals of the slate at 222.5 with the Hornets favored by 2.5. The Hornets seem to be in a high-scoring competitive game every time they play. Russell needs to shoot well for this to be a tournament-winning play. I like his chances here because of the matchup and the leverage you get by fading Edwards. Before the last game, Edwards failed to return 5x value for several games. This should be the best pivot play of the slate.

 

SF/PF Kyle Kuzma $6500

WAS @ OKC

On every slate, the field gravitates towards the teams that have injuries. Since the Wizards are relatively healthy, none of the players here will be popular. Kuzma at this price might seem like an overpay. He does have the upside to put up 40DKpts+ due to his rebounding. The Thunder are and should be a tanking team for a while. They are middle of the pack in rebounding rate and defensive efficiency. Bradley Beal is the go-to guy for Washington. Kuzma has a 20.3% usage rate averaging 0.95FPM. In a good matchup, Kuzma can get his, especially with his rebounding contributions. This is a very sneaky spot for Kuzma to potentially get a double-double. If anybody is into player props, taking Kuzma double-double and Wizards win should have good odds.

The Thunder are allowing the most rebounds to PFs this season. Kuzma is averaging over 9 rebounds this year. He crashes the boards often and finds success doing so with his size. The two healthy centers are on the team are Daniel Gafford and Montrezl Harrell. Gafford is a rim protector but not the best rebounder. Harrell provides more on the offensive end and can put up good rebounding numbers but he comes off the bench. Davis Bertans is healthy but he is a sharpshooter who does not do much else. He will not cut into Kuzma’s game. Lu Dort should be all over Bradley Beal which could open things up for Kuzma. He has had his struggles in the past but now out of the bright lights in LA, Kuzma is in a great spot to score and rebound well today.

 

C Jakob Poeltl $5700

SAS vs BOS

It is never good to hear that a player is not 100% healthy. Poeltl was $5700 against the Hawks last slate which seemed like a bargain but was low-owned. He should go overlooked again today. It has been over a week since he returned from his long absence. He should be getting close to being fully healthy. In his past 2 games, you would not think there is anything wrong with his performances. Poeltl played 31mins against the Suns and 29mins against the Hawks. The Hawks game blew out so he would have eclipsed the 30min mark again. He should be inching towards that mid-30s min mark today. With how productive of a player he is, this is too cheap of a price.

Poeltl averages 1.06FPM. Projecting him for 30mins would mean 31.8DKpts at that rate. That is a strong raw projection. Obviously, that will not be what he ends up scoring today but it is a sign that Poeltl is underpriced. The Celtics will be without Robert Williams today. Enes Kanter should pick up some of those mins. In case you did not know, Kanter is one of the worst defenders in the league. Poeltl is an excellent shot-blocker but that does come with some foul trouble concerns. Though this will be a pace-down spot, this game still has a 214.5 total with the Celtics favored by 3.5. Before his absence, Poeltl was priced over 7k. As long as he can stay on the court, he has a relatively safe floor. He has a high ceiling in addition to a weak center position today.

 

PF/C Darius Bazley $4800

OKC vs WAS

The Wizards are not the same cake matchup they have been in the past. They have added some strong defenders in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Daniel Gafford. Washington has the 10th-best defensive efficiency and plays at the 4th-slowest pace. However, the Thunder will be without their star, Shai Gilegous-Alexander again today. It is only an 88min sample size so Darius Bazley’s usage actually drops with SGA out. That should not be the case. Expect Bazley to be closer to 20% rather than that 16.2% rate. The Thunder have kept games close allowing the starters to play their regular mins. With no SGA, Bazley is needed more on the court.

Bazley has shot terribly recently. Even though the Wizards’ defense is improved, Bazley should see a lot of Kuzma today. Kuzma has made strides as a defender, but he still is not good at that end. The Wizards allow the 8th-most DKpts to opposing PFs including the most real pts to the position. There are more shots to go around today for Oklahoma City. Bazley needs to shoot better to have that huge game. The matchup data shows that this is the spot to do it. On their own end, more shots are available for Bazley. The puzzle pieces fit together. Oklahoma City sometimes starts Jeremiah Robinson-Earl at center instead of Derrick Favors. This could be a nice bump for Bazley’s rebounding. He has not done much recently so he should come in at under 5%.

 

Just missed the cut: Ja Morant, Karl-Anthony Towns, Donovan Mitchell, De’Aaron Fox, Clint Capela, Will Barton (if Nikola Jokic out), Gordon Hayward, Aaron Gordon (if Nikola Jokic out), Derrick White, Kelly Oubre Jr., Facundo Campazzo

 

Final NBA DFS Thought

Winning a tournament is different than a cash game.  Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority!  Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic.  Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo.  Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays.  And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.

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