Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Nov 7, 2021; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors guard Fred VanVleet (23) moves the ball against the Brooklyn Nets during the second half at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports
PG/SG Fred VanVleet $7800
TOR @ MEM
This is a massive 13 game slate. Just like how every NBA slate goes, the chalk comes from the injuries. On big slates like this one, everyone else is low-owned. There will be a lot of good plays. VanVleet spent the last game guarding Stephen Curry. The Raptors went to their box and one defense with FVV as the “one” on Curry. Ja Morant will be another tough defensive assignment for him but at least he does not need to focus so much defensively this game. Therefore, he should be more productive on the offensive end. FVV shot 3-12 from deep last game. He is not a high FG% player but that is because he takes a lot of jump shots. He contributes very well with the peripherals not just for a guard, but for a player of his size.
OG Anunoby is questionable with a hip injury. It was reported last week that he would miss a while. Being listed as questionable is very encouraging for him but not so good for the other Raptors players. FVV can still have a great game if Anunoby plays. His outlook is simply better if OG is out though. One benefit for Pascal Siakam if Anunoby does return is that Nick Nurse could go back to the starting lineup with Siakam at center, boosting his rebounds. If OG is out, Khem Birch should start. He is a low-usage player which would benefit the rest of the Raptors starters. The Grizzlies have the worst defensive efficiency in the league. They allow the 5th-most DKpts to opposing PGs including the 5th-most 3s made and the 2nd-most assists. If Anunoby plays, I would prefer the next player in this article.
PG Malcolm Brogdon $7600
IND vs LAL
Brogdon was the 7th-highest owned player on Monday’s 10 game slate at 18%. He notched 38DKpts at $7300. Today, he is $300 more and there are 3 additional games that should both lower his ownership. Even if he does get to somewhere around 20%, he is still an excellent option. Brogdon is a solid all-around PG. On the year, he has a 27% usage rate averaging 1.15FPM. Caris LeVert is questionable today with a back injury. He has been dealing with this for quite some time. It seems it is nagging him so a rest day before Thanksgiving could be in store. Currently, LeVert has a 30% usage rate. If he is out, he would likely be replaced by Chris Duarte. Duarte has a 20.7% usage rate. Brogdon and Sabonis would be the biggest beneficiaries of LeVert’s absence.
The Lakers are on a back-to-back. Their defense has struggled this year beyond belief. Looking at how they have defended the point guard position this season, it has been insanely bad. The Lakers allow the most DKpts to the position. They allow the most rebounds, 3rd-most assists, 3rd-most 3s, 5th-most points, and 6th-most steals. In addition, the Lakers play the fastest pace in the league. This puts the total at 217.5 with the Pacers favored by 1.5. Brogdon contributes in all facets of the game. With the Lakers struggling to contain PGs right now, Brogdon should feast today. All signs point to a huge game for Brogdon, especially if LeVert is out.
C Mo Bamba $6400
ORL vs CHA
The Magic finally play a different team and city today. After two games in Milwaukee, the Magic should feel great to be back home. The past two games were blowouts which resulted in reduced starters’ mins. Orlando is not a good team. However, the Hornets are not good enough to comfortably say this game will be another blowout. For how low-scoring Magic games are, this game seems pretty appealing. It has a 217.5 total with the Hornets favored by 4.5. The Magic start Wendell Carter Jr. alongside Mo Bamba. They then stagger their mins at the center position. In competitive games, both of them can close together. Even with the Hornets going small, the Magic have not deterred from their typical rotation.
The Hornets allow centers to dominate them in just about every game. Clint Capela needed only 24mins to rack up 45.25DKpts. The Hawks do bench Capela depending on the matchup. The Magic, however, are more likely to use both of their starters in close games because they are a developing team. Montrezl Harrell just 24-18 in 27mins against Charlotte. Bamba is a very productive fantasy player averaging 1.05FPM this season. With Cole Anthony off the floor, he has an 18.7% usage rate averaging 1.10FPM. Many will go back to Jalen Suggs because he is still too cheap. The same can be said for Franz Wagner. That should lower Bamba’s ownership since people are reluctant to roster multiple players from the same team. Bamba has 50+DKpt upside in this soft matchup.
SF/PF Harrison Barnes $6200
SAC vs POR
Well, that was a disappointing start to Alvin Gentry’s Kings coaching career. Losing to a depleted 76ers team at home is embarrassing. Tonight, the Kings will welcome the Blazers to town. There were some changes to the Kings rotation following Walton’s departure. Gentry started Mo Harkless for Chimezie Metu. Marvin Bagley III became a part of the 2nd unit. Metu did not play. The starting lineup change should be a benefit for Barnes. Harkless fits into the 3&D type player build. Metu is a big man. There should be more rebounds to grab for Barnes. At the beginning of the season, Barnes consistently put up 30+DKpt games because of his rebounding totals. This caused his price to jump into the mid 7Ks. He would be too cheap if he can go back to that form of Barnes.
The Kings want to play faster but they already do. In addition, the Blazers play faster than the Kings. Portland is tied for the 5th-worst defensive efficiency in the league. They allow the most DKpts to opposing SFs. This includes them allowing the most 3s, the 2nd-most pts, and the 2nd-most stls. If you consider Barnes as a PF with Harkless in the lineup, you are not wrong. However, the Blazers put Robert Covington on the bigger forward threat anyway. Barnes is not a high-volume 3pt shooter. That could change tonight with this juicy matchup. Barnes went 8-11 from 3 against this same Blazers team this season. Barnes has shown some high upside this year that was not previously there before. The Kings do not win for fantasy purposes, they simply just need to be in a competitive game for Barnes to play his regular mins.
Just missed the cut: Brandon Ingram, De’Aaron Fox, Richaun Holmes, Tyrese Haliburton, Jae’Sean Tate, Kelly Oubre Jr., Coby White (if Alex Caruso, Nikola Vucevic out), Franz Wagner, Lonnie Walker IV
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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