Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Nov 18, 2021; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo (13) reacts from the court against the Washington Wizards during the fourth quarter of the game at FTX Arena. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
C Bam Adebayo $8500
MIA @ DET
Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic are currently questionable. LeBron James is suspended for today’s game. Russell Westbrook and Anthony Davis will be the chalk. It will be difficult to pay up for anyone else. Nerlens Noel is one source of value that fills the center position. An easy way to be different is to have a different roster construction. Paying up for someone other than Westbrook and Davis will provide that differentiation. Adebayo at this price is a bit expensive with his Heat teammates all healthy except Duncan Robinson. This is a 4 game slate which makes more players viable. The Pistons will be without Kelly Olynyk and Isaiah Stewart today. They used Jerami Grant at center last game after Stewart’s ejection. Adebayo is not the biggest dude but should dominate the paint today.
This slate is in limbo since it revolves around some key injuries. Adebayo becomes the default low-owned player. However, the matchup is favorable. The Pistons are bottom third in the league in rebounding rate and defensive efficiency. Both of these will take further hits today with Stewart out. Whether the Pistons go small with Grant at center, or use Trey Lyles or Luke Garza, Adebayo should be in for an early Thanksgiving feast. The concerns are that this is a low total game in which the Heat should win comfortably and he feels a bit expensive. When we get clarity, I would prefer Will Barton and Aaron Gordon if Jokic is out. They were low-owned on Sunday’s 4 game slate so that should remain the same today with the Lakers and Knicks chalk.
PG/SF RJ Barrett $5600
NYK vs LAL
Barrett is struggling to shoot the ball. He contributes enough with the peripherals where if he shoots just a bit better, he would be a strong play for this price. His minutes are the 2nd-safest on the team behind Julius Randle. It is odd to see a Tom Thibodeau-coached team have varying rotations game to game. This might continue for the rest of the season with the talent on that bench. Derrick Rose is questionable today. If he is out, Immanuel Quickley will become chalk. He is an excellent value play but do not forget about Kemba Walker. Rose has been Walker’s direct backup this year. This might be what it takes for Walker to play more mins. If Rose is out, it is a benefit to everyone else with his higher usage rate compared to Quickley.
The Knicks should be without Mitchell Robinson and Taj Gibson today. Obi Toppin played great in limited time on Sunday but Thibodeau is reluctant to unleash the kid. This pushes Randle to the center position. Without a true center, RJ Barrett grabbed 15rebs last game. That probably will never happen again. This Lakers team is strong on the glass with DeAndre Jordan back in the starting up. Taking out Robinson and Gibson raises Barrett’s rebounding numbers. Removing Rose bumps Barrett’s assists up. Other than that 35-8-6 game, Barrett has not done much. This will keep his ownership low. If Rose is out, his mins are also more secure since Alec Burks can close alongside Barrett instead of directly snatching his mins.
C Ivica Zubac $5100
LAC vs DAL
Zubac is in play only if Luka Doncic is out. Doncic repeatedly ran pick and rolls against the Clippers last season in the playoffs to get Zubac switched on to him. It was barbeque chicken every single possession. Zubac was played off the court in that series. Marcus Morris should make his return tonight. He has missed a month of game action so he will have a minutes restriction. Serge Ibaka is back with the team after his G League stint. Isaiah Hartenstein is playing so great right now that he still got minutes with Ibaka back on Sunday. All of these supposed hits to Zubac will lower his ownership. Nerlens Noel is the only available Knicks center with Mitchell Robinson and Taj Gibson likely out. He is the chalk center play.
Zubac did not close last game versus this same Mavericks team and still played 27mins. The Mavs start Dwight Powell with Kristaps Porzingis so Zubac is able to stay close to the basket. When the Mavs go to their closing lineup with Porzingis at the 5, that is the only time Zubac would be in an uncomfortable spot. Nicolas Batum is out so Marcus Morris should take over those mins with Kennard, Mann, and Coffey taking the rest. The Mavs allow the most DKpts to opposing centers. They allow the most pts and the 4th-most rebounds to the position. Zubac could be in for a big night off of his rolls to the basket. Many will roster Westbrook, AD, and Noel. Zubac is one way to be slightly different.
PG Facundo Campazzo $3300
DEN @ POR
If Derrick Rose is out, play Quickley. Campazzo is more viable if Rose plays taking away that value. He is still worth a shot if you need an extra value play to fit in 3 studs. I probably would only do this if Luka Doncic plays. Campazzo has been a part of the rotation with Nikola Jokic out. The Nuggets need his ball-handling and playmaking skills. Bones Hyland is out today with an ankle injury. This allows Campazzo to play on the ball more in that 2nd unit. If Jokic is out, this game can blow out. However, Campazzo has been getting blowout run. When the Nuggets blew out the Blazers last week with Nikola Jokic in and Damian Lillard out, Campazzo played the entire fourth quarter. Last game, Campazzo checked in with 4:13 left in the third quarter and never left the floor. His mins are safe no matter what the score is.
Even if Jokic plays, Campazzo is going to get mins. Obviously, if Jokic plays, it hurts Campazzo. Jokic is the MVP and dominates the usage. If the Nuggets keep this game close without Jokic, Campazzo has a chance to close if he is playing well. In that case, you probably need Will Barton or Aaron Gordon to take down a tournament because nobody else on that team has the talent to carry this injury-depleted team. On small slates, the cheap values do not need to hit 5x. It is more about what they allow you to pay up for. Now if the Knicks value is available, play that. Campazzo is an extra piece to consider if you want an additional pay-up option.
Just missed the cut: Paul George, Julius Randle, Will Barton (if Nikola Jokic out), Aaron Gordon (if Nikola Jokic out), Kemba Walker, Terance Mann, Evan Fournier, Obi Toppin, Nassir Little (if Nikola Jokic out), Anfernee Simons (if Nikola Jokic out), Caleb Martin (if Duncan Robinson out)
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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