Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Nov 5, 2021; Sacramento, California, USA; Sacramento Kings guard De’Aaron Fox (5) celebrates after the three point basket during the fourth quarter against the Charlotte Hornets at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports
SG/SF Brandon Ingram $7900
NOP vs MIN
DraftKings continues to price up the studs on every slate. This makes the mid-range more viable on slates where there are not a lot of value plays. Ingram is now SG eligible making it easier to roster him into lineups. After sitting out two weeks with a hip injury, Ingram is now back to playing his normal allotment of minutes. He is dominating the usage on the Pelicans with a 31.3% usage rate translating to 1.09FPM. That production leaves a little more to be desired. Ingram is shooting well this season particularly from deep (43%). If he is able to contribute a bit more with steals and blocks, that would be the cherry on top. Though the Pelicans were blown out by the Pacers last game, this matchup only has a 3 point spread in favor of the Wolves and a 215 total.
Jonas Valanciunas is a fantasy beast, but Ingram is still averaging 6.5rebs/game. JoVal will have to guard the perimeter more than usual against Karl-Anthony Towns. This would open up more rebounding opportunities which are to Ingram’s benefit. Devonte’ Graham is listed as questionable with a foot injury. Though Ingram loses 1.7% in usage when Graham is off the court, he should benefit. That is simply a small 137min sample size. Replacing a 22% usage player with a 12% usage player in Tomas Satoransky benefits Ingram. He is getting his mins staggered with JoVal and the other starters. Ingram has 50+DKpts upside but is not priced at a discount. He has not had a ceiling game in a while, but there are ingredients here for this game to be it.
PG De’Aaron Fox $7600
SAC vs PHI
The Kings fired head coach Luke Walton on Sunday. This will be their first game with Alvin Gentry as the new coach. Judging by Tristan Thompson’s comments, maybe a change is what the Kings needed. They will be at home against the depleted 76ers. The entire Kings team is cheaper than expected today because of the recent blowouts. Fox’s stat lines the last 3 games just are not his typical performances. He is an athletic point guard who should grab more than just 1 rebound a game. A better matchup against the 76ers should lead to more points being scored, upping his assists total. The 76ers have slowed things down in order to conserve energy with their shortened rotations. However, their defense has suffered as expected. They have the 8th-worst defensive efficiency in the league. Mattise Thybulle is back but he cannot stop an entire team.
This is a perfect time to buy low. He is off to a slow start just like some other players around the league. On the season, Fox has a 28.1% usage rate averaging 1.02FPM. There is room for both of these to increase as he was a 31% usage rate and 1.25FPM player last year. Tyrese Haliburton is starting this year but that is at the expense of Buddy Hield. Fox should not be affected this much. I would expect Gentry to use the same starting lineup since the Kings only had one day off since the last game. Maybe Marvin Bagley enters the rotation but there probably will not be any major changes to the substitution patterns. Someone from this Kings team is going to have a good game at these prices. I am going with their best player tonight.
C Deandre Ayton $7100
PHX @ SAS
This is a back-to-back for the Suns. They do not usually rest their starters but always monitor teams in these situations. Ayton is no longer at the ridiculous $6500 tag but he is still too cheap. Looking into this game, this is actually a sneaky spot. The Suns and the Spurs do not usually play fast. Yet, they are both top 5 in pace this season. The Spurs are a middle-of-the-pack defensive team while the Suns are one of the best. This game will be in San Antonio and the Spurs will have the rest advantage. The Suns are favored by 5 in this 220 game total. He has scored 35.75 and 37DKpts in his last 2 games in only 29 and 26mins of play. If he gets a full allotment of mins, he is threatening for 50DKpts.
The Spurs have the 2nd-lowest rebounding rate in the league. Jakob Poeltl missed over 2 weeks. Without him, that caused the Spurs’ interior to be weaker. He returned last game but should still be limited today. Poeltl came off the bench on Thursday. The Spurs received 3 full days of rest so Poeltl could start but even if he does, he is going to play in short stints. Dejounte Murray and Keldon Johnson are the leading rebounders after Poeltl. That is how weak the Spurs are on the glass. Similar to the Spurs, the Suns use a small PF in Jae Crowder. This leads to an increased rebounding rate for the center, Ayton. The Nuggets are off today so the mid-range centers become more viable. Ayton has a defined role and should be someone to go overweight to today.
SF/PF Franz Wagner $4100
ORL @ MIL
For a 10 game slate, there should be better value opening up as we get closer to lock. Right now, Wagner looks like a solid option. He is averaging 24.8DKpts and putting up double-digit shot attempts nearly every game. Many were burned by Wagner last game with Cole Anthony out. Anthony is questionable today with that same ankle injury. Saturday’s game blew out but the Magic reserves brought it back. They were rewarded for their efforts so the starters never came back in. Wagner posted his worst game yet with 6.5DKpts. This is the same exact matchup in Milwaukee again. Some will be part of the never again club and exclude Wagner from their lineups. Never have that mindset. Wagner is having a strong season and that is with Cole Anthony healthy. Whether Anthony is in or out today, Wagner makes for a great value play.
The Bucks are an elite team but the Magic are still going to put up points. Wagner does not need to do much at this price. If this game is close, he is absolutely smashing and could 8x. If it blows out, he should not sink your lineups with his price being so low. The total for this game was at 208 with the Bucks favored by 3. It is now at 214 with the Bucks favored by 13. That should be an error and not any type of anticipation of the Bucks load managing. With PF eligibility, Wagner helps fill a somewhat weak PF spot. The studs have blowout concerns while the mid-range does not contain any standout plays right now. Since this is the case, Wagner’s ownership could still be in the double-digits, but it would still be lower had he played well on Saturday.
Just missed the cut: Karl-Anthony Towns, Domantas Sabonis, Tobias Harris (questionable), Harrison Barnes, Richaun Holmes, Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, Bogdan Bogdanovic (questionable), Kelly Oubre Jr., Naz Reid
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
Get your NBA DFS season started hot right out of the gate by taking advantage of my coupon code below…
Use code: WILL for 10% Discount on VIP or Core 4 Memberships
