Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Nov 18, 2021; Denver, Colorado, USA; Philadelphia 76ers forward Tobias Harris (12) drives against Denver Nuggets guard Austin Rivers (25) and center Nikola Jokic (15) in the fourth quarter at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
PF Tobias Harris $8100
PHI @ POR
Half of the teams on today’s slate are on a back-to-back. There should be a number of players who will play on the second leg after sitting out the first leg. Only 4 of the 8 games have a total and spread right now. There are too many injuries to monitor. Some games are lopsided which could mean that we see some load management today similar to Friday’s slate. Be sure to adjust your lineups accordingly. Harris will be the #1 option again tonight for the 76ers. After his 51.25DKpts performance, Harris has been a part of 2 blowouts. This is a much better matchup compared to the Jazz and Nuggets. His price dropped down to $8100 which is cheaper than usual. We have seen the 76ers be without their core players before many times. With no Embiid and Simmons, Harris is very affordable tonight.
This game has a 218 total with the Blazers favored by 6. Besides Giannis, the true fantasy studs are not on this slate such as Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic. This makes the mid-range a lot more viable. It only takes one team to load manage and the whole slate is flipped upside down. For now, Harris is a strong play. Without Joel Embiid this season, Harris has a 29.1% usage rate averaging 1.20FPM. Since the 76ers are still short-handed, Harris should play high 30s mins. The Blazers do not have a good defense. They have the 4th-worst defensive efficiency rating in the league. The 76ers play at the 2nd-slowest pace this season. This will be a solid pace-up spot for them with the Blazers playing at the 12th-fastest pace. Giannis should carry most of the PF ownership today putting Harris possibly in the teens.
C Clint Capela $7200
ATL vs CHA
Rudy Gobert should pick up 20%+ ownership. If he is not high-owned, go with him. Capela is pretty much never a popular pick. His mins and production have been inconsistent this season. Recently though, he is getting the mins and spiked a ceiling game against the Magic. De’Andre Hunter will miss significant time with his wrist injury. The Hawks have a number of wings to fill his spot. Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kevin Huerter, and Cam Reddish sometimes randomly pop up on the injury report. With Hunter out, it seems that Capela’s mins could be affected just a tad. He is not going to play huge mins, but he is a solid 1.05FPM player. This is a very good matchup against the Hornets. They allow the 2nd-most DKpts to opposing centers including the most rebounds. The Hornets are the 7th-most blocked team in the league. Both of these fit well with Capela’s strengths.
As a team, the Hornets play at the 3rd-fastest pace in the league. They have the worst rebounding rate this season. As long as Capela does not get benched, he should absolutely feast here. I cannot guarantee he is going to play his 32mins. The Hornets did not close with Mason Plumlee on Friday against the Pacers. This could force Capela off the floor and the Hawks would simply slide Collins to the 5. Since this is a possibility, make sure to get exposure to John Collins. The matchup and upside are both certainly there for Capela today. Factoring in ownership, he makes for one of the best tournament plays on the slate.
PG/SG Tyrese Haliburton $6100
SAC vs UTA
The guard position today is surprisingly weak. This probably changes by lock. Haliburton has 40DKpts+ upside. When DFS players see a team going up against the Jazz, some automatically fade the entire team. It definitely is not the best spot for the Kings. However, there are some things that work in Haliburton’s favor. The Kings were once again embarrassed on Friday against the Raptors. Though this is a back-to-back, the starters did not play in the 4th quarter. They will be at home again tonight in one of the higher scoring games of the slate. This matchup has a 223 total with the Jazz favored by 7. De’Aaron Fox is the #1 option but he will have to deal with Mike Conley. Conley is still a solid defender and Rudy Gobert is lurking in the paint.
Fox has struggled with his shot this season, shooting 24% from 3. He is a promising young player so he can certainly figure it out. He is $8100 so there is upside at that price. I feel more confident in saving $2000 and going with Haliburton who gets his mins staggered with Fox. That will increase his usage. He contributes nicely with the peripherals. Haliburton only has a 17.3% usage rate but averages 0.93FPM. He had an 18.1% usage rate last season so it is not much different. The Kings have been starting Chimezie Metu alongside Richaun Holmes. This puts the ball in Fox and Haliburton’s hands more to run the offense. Barnes also is at a cheaper price but his production has dropped off due to his lower rebounding totals with another big inserted into the lineup. If nothing major changes on this slate, Haliburton is a sneaky contrarian option tonight.
SF/PF Kyle Anderson $4600
MEM @ MIN
The Grizzlies have a few injuries today. De’Anthony Melton is out with groin soreness. Dillon Brooks is doubtful with right hamstring soreness. Kyle Anderson could pick up the spot start here. Even if he does not, he is still a value option. He contributes across the board. With Melton and Brooks likely out, Anderson could play close to 30mins. SlowMo is not an exciting play. That could be reflected in his ownership especially if he comes off the bench. He has a good chance of closing with these injuries. This game should be very competitive as it has a 218.5 total with the Timberwolves favored by 1.5.
With Melton and Brooks off the court last season, Anderson had a 24.4% usage rate averaging 1.06FPM. This year, he has a 16% usage rate averaging 0.95FPM. I do not expect Anderson to have such a high usage rate. That is not the type of player he is. Last year, the Grizzlies had Jonas Valanciunas. They now have Steven Adams in his place, a much lower-usage center. However, Ja Morant and Desmond Bane both have taken a step forward this season. Going back to the mins for SlowMo today, these two teams played once this season. Adams did not close, pushing Jaren Jackson Jr. to the 5 to matchup against Karl-Anthony Towns. It is surprising but that would help Anderson’s production. With the injuries, the Grizzlies could close with both Anderson and Adams though. The Grizzlies are an interesting team on today’s slate.
Just missed the cut: Trae Young, De’Aaron Fox, Seth Curry, Steven Adams, Mason Plumlee, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kelly Oubre Jr., Cam Reddish
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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