Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Nov 1, 2021; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Memphis Grizzles guard Ja Morant (12) dribbles during the second half against the Denver Nuggets at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
PG Ja Morant $10000
MEM vs LAC
Nikola Jokic will never be in this article. He is simply too good and will always carry high ownership. Stephen Curry is questionable. He could sit since the Warriors are on a back-to-back. Paul George also will carry a good amount of ownership. Here is Ja Morant at 10k. Paying a 5 digit price tag for the young PG might be a surprise, but he deserves to be here. Morant has taken a leap forward this season. He is averaging close to 7 more PPG and shooting 8% better from 3. His rebound and steals are also up. This is a 14 game sample size but there are reasons to believe he is legit. One, he won rookie of the year. Morant is straight-up just talented. Two, the Grizzlies traded away Jonas Valanciunas this offseason. For how athletic Morant is, he should be able to grab more rebounds. Three, he is 22 years old so he is cracking into his potential.
Dejounte Murray was priced at $9500 on Tuesday. He is $9800 today. Both of these players are priced much higher than we are used to seeing. It is not crazy to roster them though. The price is backed up by their production. Murray went off for 60.5DKpts in this same matchup against the Clippers. He was a key piece in many top tournament lineups that slate. Of course, it helped that both Kevin Durant and James Harden had very poor fantasy games. It is possible that something like that happens again today with Curry, George, or Towns. Then, the potential optimal lineup has Morant and Jokic as the spend ups. Batum should be out for this game. Mann could be out too. This Clippers defense is not as strong as it seems. I will try to be over the field on Morant to get different on this 6 game slate.
PG Reggie Jackson $6500
LAC @ MEM
The Clippers are going to be very short-handed for this game. Nicolas Batum is doubtful while Terance Mann is questionable. Kawhi Leonard, Marcus Morris, Serge Ibaka, and Justise Winslow are all still out for this game. The Clippers extended their lead against the Spurs with their bench unit in both halves on Tuesday. This should not happen when Amir Coffey and Brandon Boston Jr. are playing significant rotation mins. Now the Clippers will go on the road to face Memphis. Ty Lue should rely on his starters more today in a competitive game. This game has the 2nd-highest total on the slate at 221.5 with a 1.5pt spread in favor of the Clippers. Jackson and Bledsoe each played with the 4 backups in each half last game.
Jackson is not afraid to shoot. He attempted an insane 17 3s last game alone. That is an outlier but he does take close to double digits attempts every game. The Grizzlies allow the 2nd-highest opponent 3pt FG% in the league. Mr. October does not shoot poorly on the road. In fact, he shoots 11% better on the road from 3. With so many injuries today, Jackson should play close to 40mins. Even if Mann returns, that cuts more into Coffey and Boston’s mins. His price is creeping up but it really is not expensive. He was a 6k player when the Clippers were healthy. Now with an increased role and closing rotation security, he is a nice play at this price on smaller slates.
C Hassan Whiteside $4100
UTA vs TOR
Nikola Jokic is playing at an MVP level once again. He will surely be high-owned regardless of Stephen Curry’s status. Rudy Gobert is the consistent mid-range option. Ivica Zubac and Steven Adams carry some risk but are cheap and have high upside. It would not be a surprise if these 2 flop and Whiteside ends up in the tournament-winning lineup. He is not going to play big mins but he is an elite FPM player. This season, Whiteside is averaging 1.19FPM. He usually plays around mid-teens in mins and scores around 20DKpts. On smaller slates, not every single player has to go for 7x+ value. If the studs go off, a cheap player allows you to have access to them.
The Raptors are starting Pascal Siakam at center. Precious Achiuwa and Chris Boucher are both questionable for this game. All of the Raptors’ centers are undersized. The Jazz only use Gobert and Whiteside at center. They split the full 48 minutes every game regardless of the matchup. Siakam is a skilled forward who has the ball in his hands a lot. With Gobert having to guard someone 1 on 1 and on the perimeter, there is some foul trouble risk here. If Gobert does pick up 2 quick ones, Whiteside is coming in. He was 2% owned on the 3 game slate on Tuesday. He should be single-digit owned again today. There is a lot of upside here. If Whiteside is only able to play his usual mins, he should get to somewhere around 5x with this matchup.
SF/PF Otto Porter Jr. $3500
GSW @ CLE
Andre Iguodala is out with a hip injury. The Warriors are on a back-to-back so this is likely just for load management purposes. In the previous 2 games, Iggy missed, Porter scored 28.75 and 36.25DKpts. These games were against the Kings and Rockets, two elite matchups. Cleveland will be the toughest matchup out of these teams but there are still some things to like here. Evan Mobley is out with an elbow injury. Jarrett Allen and Lauri Markkanen both have illnesses. In addition, Kevin Love might miss with this game being a back-to-back. The 7-foot frontcourt is very banged up at the moment. On the year, the Cavs have the 6th-worst rebounding rate in the league. They dusted off Ed Davis on Wednesday. This team is going to be even worse at rebounding with all these injuries.
The Warriors play small ball. With the Cavs so depleted in the frontcourt, they do not have to play Davis a lot of mins. Cedi Osman, Dean Wade, or someone else can play PF comfortably. Porter is a 3&D player. With his size, he should be able to grab a solid amount of rebounds. Stephen Curry is listed as questionable. Porter is not massively affected whether Curry plays or not. He is not a high-usage player. It might actually benefit Porter if Curry plays so he can get better looks. The forward position looks pretty weak. Taking one of the cheap SF/PFs like Porter or Kyle Anderson allows you to afford the upside players at other positions on a somewhat small 6 game slate today.
Just missed the cut: Karl-Anthony Towns, Ja Morant, Kyle Lowry, Eric Bledsoe, Derrick White, Seth Curry, Kyle Anderson, Doug McDermott, Lonnie Walker IV, Bones Hyland, Raul Neto
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
Get your NBA DFS season started hot right out of the gate by taking advantage of my coupon code below…
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