Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Nov 4, 2021; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Houston Rockets center Christian Wood (35) against the Phoenix Suns at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
C Christian Wood $7700
HOU @ OKC
For an 11 game slate, today will be very chalky. Luka Doncic will miss at least a few games which shifts all the ball-handling duties to Jalen Brunson. Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr will pick up lots of usage. The Cavaliers have a slew of injuries making Cedi Osman a great value play. Deandre Ayton is in a fantastic matchup for only $6200. Bam Adebayo could sit again making Dewayne Dedmon a strong value play. On big slates like these, ownership will be spread out for all the other players. As a result, many great plays will be lower owned than they should be starting with Christian Wood. You can only roster 2 centers. Ayton should be the chalk and Dedmon would be too if Adebayo is out. Karl-Anthony Towns is a great play already but would be even better if Naz Reid is out. Wood is going to be too low owned today.
This game might be the battle of two bottom feeders but that is actually to our benefit. It currently has a 211.5 total with the Thunder favored by 3pts. Wood is coming off of 5 straight duds. 3 of these performances have been in blowout losses. The Rockets do funky things on back-to-backs. This stretch included 2 back-to-backs. He has 60DKpt upside especially against the Thunder who start Derrick Favors or Jeremiah Robinson-Earl at center. Oklahoma City allows the 10th-most DKpts to opposing centers including the 4th-most rebounds and most blocks. Though Wood is not a shot-blocker, he should be able to contribute in that category today. This price is too cheap but Ayton is as well and he is performing much better right now. If he fails which could happen with a blowout, Wood could be the pivot.
PG/SG D’Angelo Russell $7300
MIN vs SAC
The guard ownership will be concentrated on Jalen Brunson, Lonzo Ball, and Tyrese Haliburton. Cedi Osman is guard eligible but most should roster him at forward. Any other guard will be lower-owned than they should be. There are lots of factors working in Russell’s favor today. This game against the Kings has the highest total on the slate at 224. It only has a 2pt spread in favor of the Timberwolves. With Naz Reid out last game, the Wolves ran an 8-man rotation. Josh Okogie hurt his back and did not play in the 2nd half. He played 14mins and the Wolves ran a 7-man rotation in the 2nd half. This is not guaranteed to happen again but when teams run a short rotation, it is pretty much a must to roster someone from that team.
Russell had a 29.1% usage rate last season averaging 1.19FPM. So far this season, he has a 27.3% usage rate averaging 1.09FPM. Anthony Edwards continues to show why he was the #1 pick. Towns will always get his. The Wolves have a clear top 3 in terms of who gets the usage. Russell can get hot from deep in any game. He went 1-10 from 3 last game. The Wolves have started Patrick Beverley but whether you want to consider Russell as a PG or SG does not matter. The Kings allow the 2nd-most DKpts to opposing PGs and the most to opposing SGs. This is the best game environment on the slate. Since Russell is priced a bit higher than the 5k guards, he will not be rostered enough.
PG/SG Dennis Schroder $6500
BOS @ ATL
After 2 consecutive games against the snail-paced Cavaliers, the Celtics get a pace-up spot against the Hawks today. Atlanta lost De’Andre Hunter and could be without Kevin Huerter and Bogdan Bogdanovic for this one. The Hawks are tied for the 3rd-worst defensive efficiency rating this season. This is surprising but should be a result of the injuries they have been dealing with. John Collins has made some strides on the defensive end while Clint Capela is a great rim protector. The Hawks do not provide much resistance on the perimeter. With no Jaylen Brown, Schroder should continue to start. Robert Williams is questionable. If he is out, Grant Williams could pick up the spot start. He does absolutely nothing on the offensive end which means Schroder will be relied on a bit more than usual.
With Brown out, Schroder has a 27.6% usage rate averaging 0.91FPM. He is playing significant minutes and should do so once again in this 214 game total with a 4pt spread. Trae Young is a poor defender. The Hawks cannot put him on Marcus Smart due to the strength mismatch. If they put Kevin Huerter on Schroder, it is still a matchup Schroder can win. Atlanta has allowed the 3rd-most DKpts to opposing PGs this season. Young is turnover prone so Schroder could pick up a steal or two to help boost his point total. Though Schroder’s price does not stand out, he can certainly outscore some of the cheaper chalk guard options today. For the revenge narrative people out there, Schroder is a former Hawk. He is also in a contract year after he fumbled the bag by declining the Lakers extension last season.
PF/C Darius Bazley $5000
OKC vs HOU
Forward is pretty straight-forward today. Porzingis is the top play while Chimezie Metu is the value if he starts again. Metu has posted 23, 23.25, and 36.5DKpts in his last 3 games. About a week ago, Bazley started seeing consistent minutes. Before that, all the way back to last season, he sometimes only played in the low 20s in minutes. These past 2 games, the Thunder have been blown out. As a result, his mins were back down to under 30. The Thunder rotations are tricky to figure out game to game. It seems that only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Lu Dort’s mins are locked in. I think Bazley should see around the 32mins he got before the blowouts if the game is competitive.
Bazley has a 19.7% usage rate averaging 0.88FPM. He looked like a breakout player during his bubble run. Now with SGA taking the next step and Josh Giddey having the ball in his hands a lot, Bazley’s ceiling does not seem as high. Well, here is one of the best matchups a team could get. The Rockets play at the league’s fastest pace with a bottom-8 defensive efficiency rating. Houston allows the 4th-most DKpts to opposing PFs. Bazley has had some sneaky block and steals upside games this season. The Rockets allow the 2nd-most 3s and blocks to the position. Bazley is a cheap way to get exposure to his high total game and target the fantasy-friendly Rockets.
Just missed the cut: Karl-Anthony Towns, Jayson Tatum, De’Aaron Fox, RJ Barrett, Jae’Sean Tate, Jalen Green (if KPJ out), Kelly Oubre Jr., Daniel Gafford, Patrick Beverley, Mitchell Robinson, Josh Richardson
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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