Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Nov 12, 2021; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Brooklyn Nets guard James Harden (13) gestures after making a 3-point shot during the second half against the New Orleans Pelicans at the Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
PG James Harden $10600
BKN vs GSW
Out of the 4 studs on today’s slate, Harden should be the lowest owned out of them. Stephen Curry is under 11k. He and Paul George are the clear #1 options on their respective teams. Kevin Durant will be the preferred option of the Nets duo since he has been having the better seasons but most importantly, the forward position is much weaker. This will automatically lower Harden’s ownership. At guard, there are quite a number of value options. Paying up for someone who is the lowest owned is an easy way to get different on a small slate. Joe Harris will be out today with an ankle injury. Last game, Patty Mills started the 2nd half in his place. Steven Nash could opt with a defender such as Jevon Carter or DeAndre’ Bembry to have another option to throw on Curry.
A major concern for Nets games is the spread. With the 11-2 Warriors on the other side, this game should be close as indicated by a 2.5pt spread. Though I do prefer Durant, it would surprise no one if Harden has the better game. Factoring ownership though, I will take that chance. On the year, Harden has a 27.4% usage rate averaging 1.3FPM. Harden said he was not 100% healthy coming into the season. Recently, he has shown some flashes of the superstar form he was in. It is concerning that he is averaging under 20PPG due to fewer free throw attempts from the NBA rule changes. Yet, Harden is too talented of a scorer to not figure it out. Since he struggled the first weeks, these rates are much lower than what we are accustomed to seeing. They should creep back up closer to Durant’s rates sooner rather than later.
PG/SG Derrick White $5400
SAS @ LAC
At this range, there seem to be some standout options. Eric Bledsoe has been on a tear recently while White has struggled for pretty much the entire season. If Terance Mann is out, Nicolas Batum would pick up significant ownership at a weak forward position. Curry will take the ownership at the top while Mills will be the value option. White and Dejounte Murray were two breakout candidates coming into the season with the Spurs heading into their youth movement. Murray has taken off and probably exceeded everyone’s expectations. That has come at the expense of White as he cannot seem to get it going. Last game, White was benched in the 4th and did not close the game. On a small slate, I am willing to take the chance he can play well enough to at least close. He is a good defender so he will be needed against Reggie Jackson and Eric Bledsoe.
The problem is that Lonnie Walker IV can catch fire in any game. Devin Vassell has been playing very well and is a terrific defender. White is more of a boom-bust play at the moment which works for tournaments. Last season, White had a 22.7% usage rate averaging 0.96FPM. Somehow this year, he is at 17.8% and 0.88FPM. The Spurs lost DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Rudy Gay. If anything, White’s usage and production should increase. This does not make any sense. He is 27 years old and should be entering his prime. I lean towards this just being a tough first month of the season for White. Similar to when Keldon Johnson was struggling with his shot, his price dropped down to almost 5k. White’s price is now plummeting and it just feels too cheap. A 3 game slate could be the perfect time for White to breakout and be a tournament-winning play.
PF/C Thaddeus Young $5300
SAS @ LAC
The Spurs have split the center minutes between Drew Eubanks and Thad Young. After closing a string of games, Ivica Zubac did not close the last game against the Bulls. Terance Mann did not close that game so if he is out, Zubac still could be held out of the rotation. Young is more versatile than Eubanks. Whether Zubac closes or not, Young should get those closing mins. If Zubac does close, Young can still match up against him. The mins should hover in the mid-20s. After picking up DNPs, Young has reentered the rotation with Jakob Poeltl out. Young has an 18.6% usage rate averaging 1.16FPM. Though the usage is not that high, Young is incredibly productive when he is out there on the court. At $5300, Young does not pop off the page. However, he seems like a fine play in the mid-range.
PF is very weak so Young will probably end up above 20% but that is more than fine since it is Durant and Draymond pretty much garnering all the ownership. I much rather roster Draymond but if you need the savings, Young could return better value or possibly even outscore Draymond if something weird happens such as foul trouble or blowout. If we do not get word on whether Terance Mann will play before lock, I would swap to Nicolas Batum if he is lower-owned. Even with only 1 game locked, people do not late swap enough and it is a weeknight. In terms of roster construction, Young fits in well with the 2 studs + value build today.
SF Andre Iguodala $3100
GSW @ BKN
If your plan is to go completely stars and scrubs, rostering all the values allows you to fit 3 studs. Mills, Kennard, Griffin, etc. are the preferred value options as of now. In order to fit that third star into your lineup, you need to find more value. Iguodala is near the minimum price today. He is never an exciting play especially at this stage in his career. Steve Kerr has already rested him twice this season. Since the Warriors are not on a back-to-back, Iggy should play his normal mins. Last game against the Hornets, Jordan Poole did not close and Iguodala played 25mins. He only scored 7.25DKpts but before this game, he consistently scored in the double digits. If he can get to mid-20s in mins again, he should put up a serviceable score for your lineup to succeed.
In this matchup, Iggy should get the mins. The Warriors do not trust Otto Porter Jr. Andrew Wiggins will have to be on top of his defensive game. Iguodala will be relied on to guard Harden and Durant. Even though he is old, he has a clear role with this team. That is to defend and be a secondary playmaker to run the second unit. He will not shoot a lot but he contributes across the board. The Nets are in the bottom-10 of the league in turnovers which works in favor of Iggy’s steal chances. Even if Iggy puts up say 10DKpts, if the studs put up 60+, it allows you to roster those high-scoring players who can outscore more balanced builds. Finding another 3k player will be a winning build if the studs have big games.
Just missed the cut: Donovan Mitchell, Hassan Whiteside, Lonnie Walker IV, DeAndre’ Bembry, Jevon Carter
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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