Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
May 22, 2021; Denver, Colorado, USA; Portland Trail Blazers center Jusuf Nurkic (27) finishes off a basket in the third quarter against the Denver Nuggets during game one in the first round of the 2021 NBA Playoffs. at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
C Karl Anthony-Towns $10200
MIN vs PHX
Anytime there is a big slate, the ownership will be spread out at the top. For center, this is especially true when Nikola Jokic is on the slate. Anthony Davis looks like an excellent spend-up option tonight against the Nikola Vucevic-less Bulls. Then there is Towns against the Suns. With this being a back-to-back for Phoenix, Deandre Ayton probably sits this game out as well. The dropoff from Ayton to JaVale McGee and Frank Kaminsky is massive. Both of them are slow and fail to stop the perimeter, an important aspect of KAT’s game. Towns should have a much easier time dealing with these 2 centers all game long. He looked to be on his way to a big game against the Lakers but the game blew out. This game has a 221 total with the Suns favored by 3pts. There should not be any blowout concerns with the Timberwolves playing at home.
On the year, KAT has a 24.9% usage rate averaging 1.27FPM. These numbers are substantially less compared to last year’s rates which were 29.4% and 1.41FPM. Anthony Edwards has taken a step forward and D’Angelo Russell is healthy again but Towns is still their star. KAT’s rates should increase as the season progresses. I much rather prefer to be early than late after he already has had that big game. Phoenix is playing at the 5th-fastest pace with the 10th-best defensive efficiency. With them on a back-to-back and without Ayton, we could see some more defensive lapses than normal. Tough defenses still can be good fantasy matchups if those teams play at a fast pace. That is exactly what we have here.
C Jusuf Nurkic $6600
POR vs TOR
With Damian Lillard out on Sunday, Nurkic still came in low-owned at 13% on a 6 game slate. Since he put up a disappointing 12DKpts in 21mins, he is going to be single-digit owned today. I prefer Lillard to miss this game so there is more upside with this play but if he returns Nurkic is still fine. The Raptors are weak on the interior with a roster full of undersized big men. They are starting Pascal Siakam at center who though is a strong defender, is not your typical big man. We have seen this weakness exposed this season starting in the regular season with Andre Drummond to the last game with Isaiah Stewart. Nurkic is much more skilled than these two and possesses a unique skill set of contributing across the board for a center. For the DvP watchers, the Raptors have not played many big-name centers. As a result, they have not allowed a lot of DKpts to opposing centers, but that stat is misleading.
After getting embarrassed in Denver on Sunday night, this Blazers team should show up tonight with more fight. They will be back at home while the Raptors had to travel from Canada to the west coast. This game has a 214.5 total with the Blazers favored by 1.5 which might mean Lillard is likely to play. Nurkic’s price is dropping due to his recent play and his playing time. He received 21mins on Sunday and could have reached 30mins for the first time this season. That could have been due to the matchup against Nikola Jokic. He probably will not hit that mark but he should contribute at a high FPM rate in this exploitable matchup. Nurkic has posted 40+DKpts multiple times this year in limited playing time. The ownership will not reflect the kind of upside Nurkic has tonight whether Lillard is in or not.
PG/SG Cade Cunningham $5500
DET vs SAC
Killian Hayes was the star of the show last game posting 13-10-7. He should get some more clicks at his $4500 price tag. Then there is the #1 pick this year in Cade Cunningham. On the season, he has a 26.1% usage rate averaging 0.81FPM. Now with a couple of weeks under his belt, his shooting is starting to get better. It is possible that he plays closer to 35mins as he gets used to the NBA game environment. He contributes well with the peripherals. If his shot is falling, he would exceed this price tag. Cunningham has already shown flashes of talent. In a few weeks, he could be priced near 7k. Though the ceiling game has not happened yet, it just feels like it will come soon for the #1 pick.
Kelly Olynyk’s absence should continue to lead to more playing time for Isaiah Stewart. Olynyk closed in some games which took away shots and assists for the other Pistons players. Stewart does not possess the same offensive talent that Olynyk has. That usage will be spread out so Cunningham will pick up some of that. Last game, Stewart got a lot of easy looks around the rim on pick and rolls orchestrated by Hayes and Cunningham. The Kings play at the 7th-fastest pace with the 7th-worst defensive efficiency in the league. They have allowed the most DKpts to opposing centers. Since Stewart’s baskets usually come near the rim, they should all be assisted which is to the benefit of the Pistons guards. Whether you consider Cunningham a PG or SG in this lineup, the Kings allow the 2nd-most DKpts to opposing PGs and the most DKpts to opposing SGs.
SF Terrence Ross $3600
ORL @ ATL
Talen Horton-Tucker looks to be a popular value play tonight after starting in his first game back on Sunday. THT is minimum price which would make any other value piece low-owned. Jalen Suggs is questionable for this game. Ross should receive a bump if Suggs is out. He is a forgotten guy on this young team. Ross has always been able to get buckets off the bench. He does not contribute much with the peripherals but the playing time can make up for that. Ross is out there to chuck. He is another player who if he is on fire, has a 40DKpt ceiling off the bench. That is good for over 10x value. With the lack of contribution in other categories, Ross is definitely not a safe play. Since he has the upside at likely single-digit ownership, it is worth a shot.
Though the Hawks have some solid defensive wings, they have the 3rd-worst defensive efficiency this season. De’Andre Hunter will miss six weeks with a wrist injury. Last year, Ross had a 24% usage rate averaging 0.91FPM. Right now, he has a 17.5% usage rate and is only averaging 0.63FPM. He might be one of the older players on this roster but he is 30years old. He is by no means old. Ross should not drop off that quickly. Part of the reason for these low rates is that he is shooting 27% from 3. Better days are ahead for the talented scorer. Playing 31mins last game where Suggs played 24 is intriguing. Ross can play SG and SF for the Magic which gives him another way to earn more mins due to the position flexibility. There already is a lot of value with THT and the Wizards. If you want a different piece, Ross is sneaky today. Just understand the risk if one of the chalky values goes off.
Just missed the cut: Jayson Tatum, OG Anunoby (if FVV out), Jerami Grant, D’Angelo Russell, Scottie Barnes (if FVV out), RJ Barrett, Norman Powell (if Lillard out), Raul Neto, Danilo Gallinari
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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