Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
November 10, 2021; San Francisco, California, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) celebrates against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the second quarter at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
PG Stephen Curry $11400
GSW @ CHA
It might seem weird that Curry would be a low-owned option these days with the Warriors off to a hot 11-1 start. Taking a look at this play closer, he probably ends up under 20% today. Aside from his 88DKpt performance, Curry has not been worth these elevated price tags. The Warriors are blowing out opponents left and right. Starting today, they will be on the road for 4 games. These games should be more competitive and allow Curry to play his full minutes. This game has a 225 total with the Warriors only favored by 5pts. The Hornets usually keep games close especially when they are at home. Charlotte plays at the 2nd-fastest pace with the 4th-worst defensive efficiency in the league. Curry is matchup-proof but if there were any reasons that kept you off of Curry, this matchup is nothing to fear.
Curry should be low-owned today because the guard spots will be occupied by the Blazers. Damian Lillard is sitting out with an abdominal injury. That means CJ McCollum will be one of the highest-owned players on the slate. Anfernee Simons likely will start for Lillard and be a top value play. Since the value is at guard, it will be easy to spend up for Nikola Jokic at center. Though I prefer to go with this route, Curry is one way to get different. The last time Curry was scheduled to play in Charlotte, he fell ill before tipoff and did not play. He and his family have ties with the city which could give some extra incentive to want to play well, not that he needed any anyway. The Hornets do not have anyone capable of stopping Curry. If this game stays close, Curry is an excellent pivot play off of Jokic.
SG Zach LaVine $8200
CHI @ LAC
LaVine ended up at 30% last slate vs Golden State. He busted by only scoring 30DKpts at $8000. He is now $200 more against the Clippers. The Bulls will again be without Nikola Vucevic. Tony Bradley should pick up the start again. He was also chalk last slate but failed to return value due to the matchup. Though the Clippers are a strong opponent as they are favored by 3.5pts with a 217.5 game total, they are on a back-to-back. With a short trip to LA and rest, the Bulls should be much more competitive in this one. LaVine had a 32.2% usage rate in the last game against the Warriors. Somehow he had 0asts and 7TOs. This is just not who LaVine is as a player. With the price tag going up after a dud performance, his ownership should be a lot lower especially with CJ McCollum available at a cheaper price.
When any team replaces a high-usage player with a low-usage player, the rest of the lineup benefits. The Bulls are replacing an all-star center with a far less talented player than Vucevic. No hate to Tony Bradley. Without Vucevic, the Bulls staggered the mins for LaVine and DeMar DeRozan. LaVine played some mins with Ball which serves as a benefit to him. It takes some pressure off of him for always having to handle the ball and could lead to better looks. When Ball is off the court, LaVine should see a nice assist bump. LaVine, DeRozan, and Lonzo Ball all should benefit for the time being. The problem is that the Blazers are the best plays on the slate. All 3 of these players will be contrarian options. The game environment is right up there with the other games on the slate.
PG Kevin Porter Jr $6000
HOU vs PHX
I do not like to target the Suns but there are a few reasons to do so today. It is a 5 game slate so our options are limited a bit. The Suns currently have Deandre Ayton listed as doubtful. Since Phoenix should be able to handle this game without him, he should sit out. That will weaken their defense as JaVale McGee and Frank Kaminsky are nowhere near the defenders that Ayton is. Though McGee is an excellent shot-blocker, he is not disciplined. This game and the Nets and Thunder have the biggest spreads of the slate. Since the Suns and Nets are favored to win pretty easily, it will take good performances from multiple players on the opposing side. This strategy is rarely utilized in lineup builds. It is especially useful on smaller slates like today where people are more inclined to fade the larger spread games in fear of blowout.
Having some sort of mix of Wood, Porter, Jae’Sean Tate, Jalen Green, and Eric Gordon to bring it back with a Suns piece makes a ton of sense. Similarly, rostering James Harden or Kevin Durant then stacking with 2-3 Thunder players is a great tournament strategy today. We saw this play out last season with KPJ against the Bucks. Giannis Antetokounmpo was hurt 1min into that game but the Bucks entered that game at full strength. Multiple Rockets players went for big games that day led by KPJ’s 50pt performance. This matchup is not as bad as it may seem. Despite having the 10th-best defensive efficiency rating, the Suns play at the 5th-fastest pace this season. The defense will take a hit without Ayton and more possessions are always a plus to counter good defenses.
PF/C Blake Griffin $4200
BKN @ OKC
Anfernee Simons is the value today. Since he is a guard, going with a value elsewhere provides a different lineup build. In close games, Griffin has played close to 30mins. He is only $4200 today against one of the worst teams in the league at defending big men. The Thunder currently allow the 5th-most DKpts to opposing centers. Oklahoma City sometimes changes their starting lineup. Whether it is Derrick Favors or Jeremiah Robinson-Earl starting at center, Griffin should be productive when he is out there. He has been struggling with his shot as he is 0-14 in the last 3 games from deep. A matchup against one of the worst teams in the league could fix that.
Similar to the Rockets, if the Thunder can keep this game close, that would be nice for Griffin’s mins. However, he can get it done in limited mins at this price tag. For the narrative people out there, Griffin is from Oklahoma City. He played college ball for Oklahoma. Playing alongside superstars Kevin Durant and James Harden does not leave behind much usage for the other 3 players on the court. It does, however, make Griffin’s job easier. He should be able to get easy looks anywhere on the court. We have seen Joe Harris have some monster games in the past with the stars all active. Though Harris is a 3pt sniper, this matchup is suited for Griffin’s game. He can get it done with the rebounds and his looks around the basket.
Just missed the cut: Christian Wood, Jae’Sean Tate, Jalen Green, Eric Gordon, Kelly Oubre Jr., JaVale McGee, Jeff Green, Tony Bradley, Bones Hyland, Andre Iguodala
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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