Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Nov 11, 2021; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia 76ers forward Tobias Harris (12) dribbles against the Toronto Raptors during the fourth quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
PF Tobias Harris $8900
PHI @ IND
There are a few pay-up options on today’s 6 game slate. PF is quite stacked at the top. With Jaylen Brown out, Jayson Tatum will garner significant ownership. Kyle Kuzma will be chalk with Bradley Beal out. How about Tobias Harris then with Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, and a number of other 76ers still out? After saying that Harris would not be playing his usual mins, Doc Rivers threw him out there for 37mins. There certainly are no concerns about his playing time. Harris showed some signs of rust but that is expected after being out for about two weeks. He put up 38.75DKpts at $8800. Now he is $100 more expensive. The field is a lot smarter, but I do not expect Harris to exceed 25% today.
In 65mins this season with Joel Embiid off the floor, Harris has a 30.3% usage rate averaging 1.17FPM. Taking out Ben Simmons in addition to Embiid off the court last year, Harris had a 31.3% usage rate averaging 1.31FPM. There is room for more here and on top of that, the 76ers ran a 9-man rotation last game. Harris has the potential to play 40mins in this one as the game has a close spread of 2.5 in favor of Indiana. It has the 3rd-highest total on the slate at 217.5. Giving Harris 37mins at his 1.17FPM rate, he would project to score 43.29DKpts, which is about 5x value. These numbers are both on the low-end meaning if he exceeds these stats, he is going for a possible ceiling game. If Caris LeVert is out, Justin Holiday should start and guard Harris. Holiday is not a bad defender but not someone to worry about. Harris has big-time upside with the current 76ers injuries in one of the best game environments on the slate.
PG/SG De’Anthony Melton $5000
MEM @ NOP
I am writing this play as if Dillion Brooks will be playing. Brooks was likely held out on Friday for rest purposes. Melton is still in play even with Brooks back from injury. Melton stayed in the starting lineup and played 32mins on Wednesday. He picked up some ownership and went 3-11 shooting including 1-7 from 3. Melton still put up a respectable 29.5DKpts at $5100. Brooks should start soon. He appears to be more of a threat to Desmond Bane’s role. Bane dealt with foul trouble all game long and ultimately fouled out, logging 21mins. Looking at the substitution patterns, Brooks subbed in for Bane every time except the 4th quarter. Taylor Jenkins will close with the hot hand so the closing lineup is not set in stone except for Ja Morant. Since Bane was in foul trouble, it is possible he would share the court more with Brooks and cause Melton to lose a few mins.
Melton is a solid fantasy contributor, averaging 0.92FPM this season. In previous years, Melton chalk almost always panned out well. Now that he is starting and playing solid mins, he is someone to monitor if his price range is around or below 5k. The Grizzlies will be a on a back-to-back but the Pelicans will be too. Since Brandon Ingram has practiced recently, he could return for this game. The Pelicans turn the ball over at the 7th-highest rate in the league. This fits Melton’s skill set as he is averaging 1.5 stls/game. Ingram can be turnover prone and of course, the backcourt of Devonte’ Graham and Nickeil Alexander-Walker have those tendencies as well. New Orleans is dead last in defensive efficiency on the year. This game has the 2nd-highest total on the slate at 221.5 and a close spread of 2.5 in favor of Memphis. If Brooks plays, Melton’s ownership will drop but it really does not affect Melton that much.
C Isaiah Stewart $4400
DET @ TOR
With Kelly Olynyk out for the next six weeks, some people had Stewart on their radar for Friday’s slate. The Pistons were blown out by the Cavaliers and Stewart put up a dud of 14.25DKpts in 24mins. To complicate things further, it appears that the Pistons will give Luka Garza some run. With Trey Lyles in the mix, this could be a 3-center rotation. However, Stewart still got to 24mins in a blowout. He has foul trouble concerns and this matchup is risky against Pascal Siakam. The upside is undoubtedly there at $4400. When he picked up spot starts last season, Stewart was going for 30+DKpts with ease. If he can stay on the floor, he should at least return value. Jerami Grant is not an elite rebounder so Stewart should be able to control the boards for Detroit. Stewart is not a high-volume shooter so adding in a talented guard in Cade Cunningham could help Stewart at getting easy looks around the rim.
Stewart is only center-eligible so this play comes with a high opportunity cost. Looking at this price range, Steven Adams and Daniel Gafford have similar concerns with their playing time. The Grizzlies can close with a number of options while the Wizards close with Montrezl Harrell no matter how well Gafford is playing. Taking Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin, and Mason Plumlee off the court, Stewart had a 16.1% usage rate averaging exactly 1FPM last season. Stewart is averaging 23mins this season. That varies due to foul trouble and blowouts but Stewart would project for 23DKpts. That is already a return of over 5x. The slow start could simply be the sophomore slump. With more mins available, Stewart has 8x+ upside at this price. This is not a play you should go all-in on. The price, ceiling, and likely ownership make Stewart a fantastic tournament play.
PG Raul Neto $3200
WAS @ ORL
The last time Beal missed, the Wizards started Aaron Holiday. Neto came off the bench but played 30mins and closed. His mins are staggered with Spencer Dinwiddie but later, they do share court time together. For some players, it is better for them to come off the bench. Neto is one because he can have the ball-handling responsibilities and run the 2nd unit. He is a solid playmaker but has stepped up his scoring. Hopefully, he does not start in order to keep his ownership low. Neto is a top value play today but will not be properly owned if he comes off the bench again. In a 74min sample size with Bradley Beall off the floor, Neto has a 20% usage rate averaging 1.11FPM. It is incredibly difficult for him to fail at near minimum price. He has 10x upside today.
Neto will not be at Chris Boucher-ownership levels on Thursday’s slate, but still should be too low. Even with twice the amount of games today than Thursday, Neto at least has been getting mins as opposed to Boucher who had seemed to be falling out of the rotation. By the way, Boucher could again be in play if the Raptors are without their centers. The pace of this game might make us turn back the clock into the 90s. However, the Magic are not a good team. They actually have played at a league-average pace. Orlando has the 5th-worst defensive efficiency this season. The number of possessions might not jump off the page but Neto should be able to make the most of them against this inexperienced team. Even if Neto ends up 30% owned, he should be 50%+ unless some crazy news happens.
Just missed the cut: Wendell Carter Jr, Mo Bamba, Steven Adams, Jalen Suggs, Chris Boucher (if Precious Achiuwa & Khem Birch out), Isaiah Hartenstein
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
Get your NBA DFS season started hot right out of the gate by taking advantage of my coupon code below…
Use code: WILL for 10% Discount on VIP or Core 4 Memberships
