Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Jan 14, 2021; Tampa, Florida, USA; Toronto Raptors forward Chris Boucher (25) catches a pass during the second quarter of a game against the Charlotte Hornets at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mary Holt-USA TODAY Sports
C Rudy Gobert $8000
UTA vs IND
Whether Tobias Harris returns or not, Joel Embiid is still out. Therefore, Andre Drummond is going to be chalk. At $8600, he is still too cheap. The Raptors likely will be resting Pascal Siakam. Khem Birch is out with a knee injury. The Raptors will be very small up front meaning Drummond is looking at another monster game. He is a fantastic play. Jimmy Butler left Wednesday’s game at halftime. With a quick turnaround, he could be out making Bam Adebayo at $7400 another popular center play. It is simple. That makes Gobert low-owned today. He certainly would rank last out of these 3 centers in terms of projections. As we see time and time again, the most likely outcome does not equal the actual outcome. Whether it is foul trouble, injury, or a poor game, the best plays can still fail.
Gobert has been one of the most consistent players in the league so far this season. He is averaging 14.6PPG, 15.9RPG, 1.9BLKPG. Gobert picked up 3 fouls at the 9:56 mark in the 2nd quarter last game against Atlanta. In only 24mins, he missed a double-double by 1pt. Even in a tough matchup against Myles Turner, he should be able to double-double. In their prior meetings, Gobert has recorded stat lines of 16pts-14reb-8blk, 23-14, 20-14, 16-16. His price did drop $900 after Tuesday’s game though. He would likely need to put up a monster type of line whether that is with rebounds and blocks to beat Drummond and Adebayo. Then there is Precious Achiuwa value. With so many terrific centers on this 3 game slate, Gobert should end up under 20% owned.
PG/SG Jordan Clarkson $4900
UTA vs IND
Ever since Clarkson’s three-point streak ended, he has struggled with his shot. Besides the game against Atlanta in which Donovan Mitchell was out, he has not done much since he does not contribute enough with the peripherals. The Pacers had one of the worst defenses last year after losing Myles Turner. Turner is healthy and makes a big difference to this team’s success. However, the Pacers are 19th in defensive efficiency. Turner alone cannot turn this defense around. As a guard, Clarkson is not affected as much by this. He is generally a target only if Mike Conley or Mitchell is out. This is a 3 game slate though and his price is below 5k. With his usage sitting at 29.6% averaging 0.92FPM, you will not find a better in this price range with those rates.
The Jazz are 9pt favorites at home against the Pacers. If this game were to blowout, Clarkson gets extended run in the 4th because the starters do not need to come in. They let Clarkson play a few additional minutes before the reserves check in. If the Pacers have already waved the white flag, Clarkson will get a few minutes against scrubs. This could be some important stat-stuffing time. As for his rates, he has benefited from Conley and Mitchell being out. However, Clarkson has shot so poorly that those rates probably are where they should be. The 6th man is priced low today but the variety of options at his price point combined with a healthy Jazz squad should keep his ownership low. At $5200 on Tuesday’s 3 game slate, Clarkson was only 7% owned.
SG/SF Terance Mann $4800
LAC vs MIA
This Mann disappointed many DFS players Tuesday night. Usually very productive, Mann finished with only 15.25DKpts. The positive is that it seems Ty Lue will let Mann close games no matter how he is playing. He was much better in real life than for fantasy so that could change. Though with the CLippers still dealing with some significant injuries, Mann should close yet again tonight. Mann has a 15% usage averaging 0.81FPM. He played 33mins on Tuesday so he was less than 0.50FPM. That should not happen again. He is not Tony Snell. Now this matchup might seem difficult but it is not if Butler is ruled out. He was in street clothes for the 2nd half of Wednesday’s game. With this being a back-to-back, the Heat probably will be without his services.
If that is the case, this Heat defense will take a dive which could be all that Mann needs to deliver a solid game. If the Heat decide to rest some veterans like Kyle Lowry, this game could blow out. Whether the game is close or not, Mann will be on the court. He has played in pretty much every blowout. His mins are very secure. Coming off of a poor fantasy game, he should be lower owned than the 26% he was on Tuesday. Mann has played at least 30mins in the past five games. Ivica Zubac should close tonight to matchup with Bam Adebayo but Mann’s rebounding numbers have been great this season when Zubac gets mins anyway. He is a capable playmaker and defender. The last game was simply an outlier.
PF/C Chris Boucher $3200
TOR @ PHI
Boucher has been a disappointment this season. He puts up monster games when he gets the playing time. Nick Nurse is not giving him any minutes but he might be forced to do so today. With no Birch and likely Siakam, that leaves the Raptors with Achiuwa and Boucher. They will not be able to provide any resistance to Drummond on the glass but at least they can try. The last 3 games, Boucher has played 7, 8, and 7 mins. Those 3 games though, Birch or Siakam were active. At the very least, Boucher should see mid-teens mins. If Achiuwa gets in foul trouble, this will be the Boucher breakout game. Boucher has a 20.6% usage rate averaging 0.97FPM this season. Last year, he was at 20.8% and 1.19FPM. This is with every Raptor last season active. Boucher is a fantasy beast and his FPM rate should increase closer towards last season’s.
There are DFS players who know Boucher can break the slate. I just do not think many will be on him unless he starts or Coach Nurse says something positive before the game. He has done absolutely nothing this season including a single-digit performance on one slate where he was 20%+ owned. For season-long players, some of your opponents may have already dropped Boucher. Many know that Nurse does not want to play Boucher. With the roster they have for today, Boucher should get at least enough time to return 5x. I would be well over the field on him. Whether you are fading the chalky Achiuwa or Duncan Robinson, take Boucher to be different or to afford another stud into your lineup.
Just missed the cut: Fred VanVleet, Danny Green (if starting), Isaiah Hartenstein, Torrey Craig (if Caris LeVert out), Caleb Martin (if starting)
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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