Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 11/3:
Oct 30, 2021; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (21) controls the ball against Atlanta Hawks center Clint Capela (15) and forward De’Andre Hunter (12) in the first quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Portland Trailblazers @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 219.0
Vegas Spread: Por -3.0
We’ll get this massive slate started with the Blazers heading into Cleveland. At this point, I’m just going to make Damian Lillard prove it to me especially at this DraftKings price tag. He’s more playable on FanDuel where he’s $1.4k cheaper, but on a big slate, I might still have trouble getting there. CJ McCollum has been pretty solid to start the season, but we really haven’t seen much of a ceiling at his current price tag, so he’s more of a cash option for me. Jusuf Nurkic has been a bit more volatile than usual to start the season and hasn’t played more than 29 minutes in any game this year. I like him from a point per minute perspective, but another guy that might be hard to get to on a big slate. Then the rest of this team is more GPP options than anything with guys like Norman Powell and Robert Covington. From the Cavs, we know that Kevin Love will be out for a few games which opened up a bunch of minutes and usage in that frontcourt. We saw Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley, and Lauri Markkanen all have big games last time out against the Hornets. It’s a tougher matchup with Nurkic down low, but this game will be up-tempo enough for me to draw interest regardless. I was all over Collin Sexton last time out at his price tag, and we saw it come up but I don’t think it was enough considering this matchup. He played 36 minutes and would expect more of the same from him here. The same can be said for Darius Garland, he’s at a similar price tag and has been much more consistent this season, it’s a great matchup for him as well. Then you can round this team out with Ricky Rubio as a GPP dart, I doubt you get there on a big slate, but he’s playable nonetheless.
5-star play: Collin Sexton, Darius Garland
4-star play: Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, Lauri Markkanen
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Norman Powell, Robert Covington, Ricky Rubio
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Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Raptors, Scottie Barnes has already been ruled out for this one and we saw Svi Mykhailiuk start in his place last time out. He played 35 minutes on his way to 33.75 DraftKings points in that game and I would expect he gets the start again here making for a solid value option. I was hoping with Barnes out we would see more of Chris Boucher, but he saw just 10 minutes and didn’t do much with them. I don’t know what he did to Nick Nurse, but he just refuses to give him run. Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby are probably the guys you’ve gotten to most this season and are great plays again here. The Wizards don’t play a whole lot of defense and these guys are playing massive minutes. The nice thing about Anunoby is he’s taken a big step in the offense this season with Siakam out, he has a 25% usage rate on the season which is up from his 19.8% rate last season, so it’s clear he’s looking to be more aggressive. Then you can round this team out with Gary Trent Jr. who is going to play a ton of minutes and is a solid option in this price range. From the Wizards, Bradley Beal came down to Earth last time out after going for back-to-back 50-burgers. I don’t have an issue with him here and as a general rule of thumb like to target him when he’s under $10k… I really like the price tag on FanDuel. Spencer Dinwiddie has at least 32 DraftKings points in three straight games but is priced right where he should be. Then we get to the frontcourt where Daniel Gafford returned last time out to play 11 minutes. I initially thought him being back would impact Montrezl Harrell’s minutes, but he still ended up playing 33 against Atlanta and is still a solid option here. Kyle Kuzma is priced right where he should be as well for the matchup, he’s more of a secondary option to cap off the Wizards.
5-star play: Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Bradley Beal
4-star play: Gary Trent Jr., Montrezl Harrell, Kyle Kuzman, Spencer Dinwiddie, Svi Mykhailiuk
Deeper Value: Svi Mykhailiuk
GPP Sleeper: Spencer Dinwiddie, Gary Trent Jr.
New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 218.0
Vegas Spread: Ind -1.5
Starting with the Knicks, we know we’re going to get massive minutes out of Julius Randle which gives him a really nice floor and ceiling, and in this matchup, I love targeting him here. The Pacers haven’t shown the ability to stop much of anyone to start the season. The same can be said for RJ Barrett who is no stranger to huge minutes, he’s in great form and has at least 37 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, he’s a guy I like but the price tag has come way up on him. Kemba Walker is a fine option especially in this matchup, the Pacers have given up massive games to opposing point guards to start the season but I just don’t know how much Kemba will pop on an 11-game slate when you’re building lineups and running the Domination Station. Then you can round out the Knicks with GPP guys like Evan Fournier and Mitchell Robinson in a nice matchup. From the Pacers, it sounds like Malcolm Brogdon will be questionable again for this one but feels good about his chances. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding him and who benefits if he were to miss. Domantas Sabonis has back-to-back nice games but now is priced over $10k on DraftKings and $200 short on FanDuel. I’ll have interest in him if Brogdon is out again, but I’ll likely go elsewhere, maybe even Randle on the other side if Brogdon were to play. Caris LeVert got his minutes restriction up to 24 last time out and actually played pretty well. I’ll want to hear that he’s officially off the restriction before I jump back on him, but it’s progress nonetheless. We kind of know the drill with Myles Turner at this point, he’s going to be volatile, but probably a guy you’ll want exposure to in tournaments at the very least due to his upside. Lastly, if Brogdon were to return, Chris Duarte and TJ McConnell would become secondary pieces at best especially with LeVert’s minutes coming up.
5-star play: Julius Randle
4-star play: RJ Barrett, Kemba Walker, Malcolm Brogdon, Domantas Sabonis
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Evan Fournier Mitchell Robinson, Myles Turner, Chris Duarte
Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 215.0
Vegas Spread: Bos -6.0
Starting with the Celtics, it finally seems like they’re fully healthy for once. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are at the top end of the team in terms of fantasy production (and price tag). Brown has at least 45 DraftKings points in three of his last four games but also has under 20 DraftKings points in tow of his last five, so he’s probably more of a GPP guy for me until he proves a bit more consistency. Tatum is coming off a down game last time out but man he’s playing a ton of minutes with at least 36 in each of his last five games. Al Horford continues to crush for the C’s and has at least 41 DraftKings points in each of his last four games, his price tag is way up on FanDuel, but a guy I’ll have interest in yet on DraftKings at just $6.9k. Robert Williams is beginning to feel like he’s going to be more of a GPP guy this season with how up and down he’s been to start the year but I do like the matchup and price tag on him in this one. Lastly, Dennis Schroeder is too cheap, he put up 29 DraftKings points in just 21 minutes last time out following four straight 30+ fantasy points performances. From the Magic, Cole Anthony put up his second 60 point fantasy performance of the season last time out. I can never seem to get this guy right, but he’s obviously shown a ceiling big enough to support this price tag. Mo Bamba feels a lot like Robert Williams in a higher tier, he’s been a bit all over the place to start the season, but has shown a nice ceiling nonetheless. I might have more interest in saving money and going down to Wendell Carter Jr. who continues to play awesome basketball next to Bamba. As I keep running down this Magic team, damn do they have a lot of dudes… none great, but all NBA guys at the very least which I realize sounds dumb, but their back end of the roster isn’t filled with G-Leaguers for whatever that counts for. I think you can safely round this team out with tournament plays in Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs… maybe a splash of Terrence Ross if you like living on the edge.
5-star play: Al Horford and Dennis Schroeder (DraftKings)
4-star play: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Al Horford and Dennis Schroeder (FanDuel), Robert Williams, Mo Bamba, Wendell Carter Jr., Cole Anthony
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Robert Williams, Marcus Smart, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, Terrence Ross
Chicago Bulls @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Bulls, this team is going to be so frustrating from a DFS perspective this season. It’s going to be hard to predict who has the big game between Nikola Vucevic, Zach LaVine, and DeMar DeRozan. The last time out it was DeRozan who had 52.5 DraftKings points and has been really consistent to start the season… the issue is he’s $8.5k on DraftKings and $8.2k on FanDuel. LaVine was solid in that game as well, but I just can’t pay the price tag on these guys on a full slate like we have tonight. The story remains the same for Vucevic as well… on a shorter slate, maybe. Alex Caruso could be interesting depending on the value we get to open up, but he’s been a key piece off the bench for them to start the season and has a nice price tag. From the Sixers, Tobias Harris and Danny Green will be out for this game but appears Joel Embiid will return. It’s an incredibly small sample size (46.3 minutes to be exact), but with Simmons, Green, and Harris off the court last season Embiid had a 47.9% usage rate and 2.25 fantasy points per minute. Now, obviously, that’s not sustainable, but more directed at how involved he’ll be here. If we want a bigger sample and just take Simmons and Harris off, he’s still looking at a 45.5% usage rate and 2.11 fantasy points per minute in 156 minutes. He’s an elite option in this spot with these guys off the court. We will likely see Furkan Korkmaz start for Harris again and put up 28 DraftKings points last time out, he’s a solid mid-to-low range option. You can go ahead and jump off Andre Drummond with Embiid back, people may see his performance last game and chase it but they’re just paying the rake at that point. You can round out this team with Seth Curry and Tyrese Maxey and a sprinkle of Shake Milton who continues to see his minutes increase.
5-star play: Joel Embiid
4-star play: Nikola Vucevic, DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Furkan Korkmaz, Seth Curry
Deeper Value: Shake Milton, Alex Caruso
GPP Sleeper: Nikola Vucevic, DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Seth Curry, Tyrese Maxey
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Atlanta Hawks @ Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total: 219.0
Vegas Spread: Bkn -5.5
Starting with the Hawks, we’ll have to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as John Collins comes into this one as questionable, but the Hawks have enough wings behind him to back him up with guys like De’Andre Hunter and Danilo Gallinari. Trae Young has been held under 40 FanDuel points in back-to-back games but I do like his chances of bouncing back in this one. It’s the battle against James Harden in who caused the league to switch how they call fouls so it should be a fun one. Clint Capela finally got a full allotment of minutes last time out, but that’s the first we’ve seen that this season. He’s more of a secondary option while we wait to see if that will be more of a norm. Then guys like Bogdan Bogdanovic, Cam Reddish, and De’Andre Hunter are more of GPP guys unless John Collins is forced to miss. From the Nets, James Harden now has back-to-back 50 point fantasy nights and will look to keep it going in this one. I still think I prefer Kevin Durant at a slightly higher price tag, but feels like Harden may be getting his legs under him. I wish the price tag on LaMarcus Aldridge was cheaper but with Nic Claxton out I suppose it makes sense. I doubt I get there on a full slate like we have tonight. You can make a case for a Bruce Brown of Joe Harris for tournaments but I have to imagine we see better value open up as the day goes on.
5-star play: James Harden, Kevin Durant
4-star play: Trae Young, Clint Capela
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Cam Reddish, De’Andre Hunter, LaMarcus Aldridge, Bruce Brown, Joe Harris
Denver Nuggets @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 213.0
Vegas Spread: Mem -1.5
We just saw this matchup last time these two played, so we have something to go off of here. Nikola Jokic went for 50.9 FanDuel points in that game and is going to be an elite option as always on this slate if you’re able to find the money. Michael Porter Jr. continues to shoot horribly, and at some point, that will turn around. I like taking shots on him in GPPs because we know the upside on him when he gets it going. Outside of these two, I don’t generally play much else from Denver, but guys like Will Barton and Aaron Gordon are solid tournament options particularly Gordon who has played well as of late. From the Grizzlies, Ja Morant went for 47.25 DraftKings points last time out against his team and a guy I’m going to like for GPPs as well, the ceiling with him is massive. De’Anthony Melton and Desmond Bane are finally priced about where they should be, they’re fine options, but more of guys I’d get to on a shorter slate. Lastly, Jaren Jackson Jr. has been popular at points this season and a guy I never have an issue fading due to his issue with falling into foul trouble early and often. If he’s ever popular you can get some nice leverage by just pivoting off him to another guy in his price range.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Michael Porter Jr., Ja Morant
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Will Barton, Aaron Gordon, De’Anthony Melton, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Clippers, Paul George now has at least 60 DraftKings points in three of his last five games and gets an awesome matchup against the Wolves here. It’s hard for me to stomach the price tag on him, but the production is backing it up right now. Reggie Jackson is a GPP only guy for me, he hasn’t hit 5x value on his price tag once this season if we look at DraftKings pricing, but again, the matchup is nice. Then we get into this trio of guards including Luke Kennard, Eric Bledsoe, and Terance Mann. Kennard comes in in the best form, but we’ve seen a higher ceiling out of Bledsoe this season. They’re all tournament options in hopes you fall on the right guy tonight in a great matchup. Lastly, I love targeting big men against the Wolves due to how bad their defense is inside, so I love getting Ivica Zubac on the cheap. From the Wolves, D’Angelo Russell has been ruled out for this one and Patrick Beverley has been listed as questionable, so we’ll have to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on this team. That said, we likely see Jordan McLaughlin start in Russell’s place, and is a nice option at the dead minimum on DraftKings and $3.6k on FanDuel. He started the second half last game and played 20 minutes, he shot poorly, but that has a way of fixing itself. With Russell off the court this season we’ve seen Karl-Anthony Towns have a 30% usage rate and 1.4 fantasy points per minute along with Anthony Edwards having a 34.7% usage rate and 1.2 fantasy points per minute. It’s not a huge sample size but these are the guys I would be looking at most with a sprinkle of Malik Beasley as we would see him take over more point guard responsibilities.
5-star play: Paul George, Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns
4-star play: Malik Beasley, Ivica Zubac
Deeper Value: Ivica Zubac, Jordan McLaughlin
GPP Sleeper: Luke Kennard, Eric Bledsoe, Terance Mann
I wanted to give a quick shoutout to VIP member “GhostfaceKillaa” on his $30k win last night. A pivot to Curry off the chalky Doncic was the key for him, congrats man!
Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Mavericks, Luka Doncic wasn’t a guy I was high on due to the matchup last night and he had a down game yet again. I don’t mind getting to him here against a bad defense but I wish he was in better form, he’s shooting the ball terribly right now. We’ll need to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on Kristaps Porzingis as he comes in as questionable in this one. We know Maxi Kleber will continue to be out and have seen Dwight Powell get extended run over the past two games and is a guy I like as a value option here. Jalen Brunson bounced back after a couple of down games last night and a guy I have no issue going back to here but would imagine we find sexier options in this price range. Then you can round this team out with Tim Hardaway Jr. as a tournament-only play as usual. From the Spurs, if it’s your first night playing NBA DFS tonight the price tag on Dejounte Murray is probably going to shock you. That said, he’s been producing enough to warrant it this season other than a down game last time out. I think he’s slightly overpriced for his median projection, but at this point, his ceiling has backed the price tag and it’s a nice matchup. Jakob Poeltl has been great all season long, but has had back-to-back dud games but did score 40 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season, so I have no issue with him in this spot. Derrick White’s production has cooled a bit from the start of the season, but still a guy I’m okay having in my player pool. Lastly, Keldon Johnson is being more aggressive this season with a usage rate of 24.2% which is up from 19% last season, so he’s a guy I’ll have some interest in for tournaments.
5-star play: Luka Doncic
4-star play: Dwight Powell, Jalen Brunson, Jakob Poeltl, Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Keldon Johnson
Deeper Value: Dwight Powell
GPP Sleeper: Tim Hardaway Jr., Keldon Johnson
Charlotte Hornets @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Hornets, LaMelo Ball is cookin’ right now and has at least 50 FanDuel points in back-to-back games and is a guy I will go right back to in a nice matchup with the Warriors. Miles Bridges feels like a guy that the public is just going to refuse is legit, but he is. The guy has at least 40 DraftKings points in all but two of his games this season and is a guy I’ll go right back to in this spot. Gordon Hayward has been held under 20 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and never a guy I can seem to get right, more of a tournament option for me here. Terry Rozier returned over the weekend and doesn’t seem to be limited at all, the price tag is kind of nice on him as well if you’re looking to get exposure to this team. Lastly, PJ Washington, Kelly Oubre, and Mason Plumlee are all GPP darts, I have a hard time imagining we can’t find better options than them tonight. From the Warriors, Steph Curry is still priced way up here, but probably for good reason as he’s been performing out of this world to start the season. It’s a great matchup for him, so no issues going right back to him in this spot. I like this spot a lot for Draymond Green, he shouldn’t have an issue getting some rebounds against this weak Hornets defense which increases his triple-double equity, he’s priced nice as well. Lastly, Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole are in play for GPPs, but again, I think we’ll be able to find better options on today’s slate.
5-star play: LaMelo Ball, Steph Curry, Draymond Green
4-star play: Miles Bridges, Terry Rozier
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Gordon Hayward, Kelly Oubre, Mason Plumlee, Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole
New Orleans Pelicans @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
We round out the slate with what should be a pretty high-scoring game against two teams that play pretty fast. We’ll start with the Pels who will be without Brandon Ingram again here, here is how they operate with him off the court this season:
- Devonte’ Graham – 26.5% usate rate; 1.07 fpm
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker – 24.6% usage rate; 0.95 fpm
- Jonas Valanciunas – 26.4% usage rate; 1.49 fpm
The sample size probably isn’t big enough on Josh Hart but he’s over one fantasy point per minute on the season as well and a guy I would like here too. I’ll have no issue getting to any of these four guys in a great matchup with a Kings team that isn’t playing any type of defense this season. From the Kings, De’Aaron Fox will continue to play massive minutes, but he’s been held under 40 DraftKings points in all but one game this season, I’ll wait for him to hit his stride a bit more before going back to him here. I do like getting to Harrison Barnes here, he’s been really consistent this season and has even shown signs of a ceiling. Richaun Holmes put up 31.5 DraftKings points in this spot over the weekend and a guy I’ll go back to here as well. Then you can round this team out with tournament guys in Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, and even Davion Mitchell on the lower end.
5-star play: Jonas Valanciunas, Devonte’ Graham
4-star play: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Josh Hart, De’Aaron Fox, Harrison Barnes
Deeper Value: Herbert Jones
GPP Sleeper: Richaun Holmes, Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, Davion Mitchell
NBA Lock of the Day: (See the NBA Cheatsheets for My CORE PLAYS!)
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