Get your NFL DFS research started with a full game-by-game breakdown of this week’s NFL slate. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for NFL DFS Week 6:
Oct 3, 2021; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Washington Football Team wide receiver Terry McLaurin (17) celebrates after a touchdown reception with wide receiver Dyami Brown (2) against the Atlanta Falcons in the second quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
First, let me kick things off with a cool video that Geek put out reviewing week 5 cash and GPP lineups. It’s important to go back through your thought process on a weekly basis and what you can tweak in future builds, check it out! Also, a quick shoutout to VIP Member ‘blarche’ on his big $20k win this weekend!
-> Week 5 – NFL Cash and GPP Lineup Review <-
Cincinnati Bengals @ Detroit Lions
Vegas odds:
Total: 47.5
Line: Cin -3.5
Rundown:
We start week 6 off with the Cincinnati Bengals who lost a heartbreaker to my Green Bay Packers last weekend but get a nice bounce-back spot here as they head to Detroit. This Bengals stack is going to look pretty juicy here, as the Lions haven’t really been able to stop anybody this season. Joe Burrow has at least 30 pass attempts in three of his last four games, but to play devil’s advocate, that was all due to game script and being behind which I don’t entirely expect in this one. I wish he provided more rushing upside which kind of keeps this Bengals stack out of the elite tier but it’s still interesting for tournaments due to the pass-catchers he has with Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tyler Boyd. Chase has been a monster this season and clearly, a guy Burrow is looking toward as he leads the team with a 25.7% target share. He would be the main piece that I would stack Burrow with, but Higgins and Boyd have friendlier price tags if you’re looking to live more in that middle range, Higgins in particular stands out to me at that price tag. The backfield should clear up a bit this week as well, Joe Mixon saw just 28% of snaps last week as Samaje Perine led the way. That being said, Perine tested positive for Covid-19 this week and will miss this game which leads me to believe they’ll go right back to Mixon as the workhorse after getting another week of reps in after hurting his ankle in week 4. He’s probably more of a GPP guy for me since we don’t know just how healthy that ankle is but the game script should set up nicely for him here. From the Lions, Jared Goff has really regressed from what he showed the first two weeks of the season but does get a nice matchup here. Even with the nice matchup, I don’t think you need to go here on this slate. I do like getting some D’Andre Swift in this backfield, however. The snap percentage remained in that 74% range carrying over from what we saw in week 5. This Bengals front won’t have much of an answer for him and he can get it done through the air as well. TJ Hockenson has been held under 8.5 DraftKings points in each of his last three games but remains a fine mid-range tight end option due to his upside. Lastly, Amon-Ra St. Brown is going to be an interesting value option at receiver this week. Quintez Cephus went on IR this week which will open the door for more snaps and targets for St. Brown. He has at least 13 DraftKings points in back-to-back games with eight targets in both games. He’s probably more in play on DraftKings due to the price discount, but a guy we should keep an eye on moving forward.
5-star plays: D’Andre Swift, Tee Higgins
4-star plays: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, TJ Hockenson, Amon-Ra St. Brown (DraftKings)
GPP Note: I think you can make a case for a GPP Bengals stack if you’re multi-entering but probably not anything I’m going too crazy on.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Football Team
Vegas odds:
Total: 55.5
Line: KC -7.0
Rundown:
Welcome to the biggest implied total of the week because both these defenses are pretty dreadful. We’ll start with Kansas City, where Patrick Mahomes has a perfect 100 rating in the Domination Station below and has the biggest projection at the quarterback position on both FanDuel (below) and DraftKings.
It’s really hard not to like this Kansas City offense here, the Mahomes/Travis Kelce/Tyreek Hill trio probably has the biggest floor/ceiling combination on the entire slate especially due to this matchup. Not to mention Clyde Edwards-Helaire will be out awhile as well, so they’ll lean on the passing game even more than usual. Speaking of Edwards-Helaire, I would expect Darrell Williams to receive a majority of the workload in the backfield with a little bit of Jerrick McKinnon sprinkled in, so I don’t mind a little Williams action either. He has pass-catching upside as well, overall this Chiefs offense is really intriguing but you’ll pay through the nose for them. Washington is interesting here as well for the same reason we like Kansas City, the Chiefs defense has been terrible. I love the Taylor Heinicke to Terry McLaurin stack in this one and running it back with one of Hill or Kelce. Kansas City got burned deep a few times in week five against the Bills and they’re going to have all sorts of issues containing McLaurin. Ricky Seals-Jones stepped right into the Logan Thomas role with him out and played 99% of the team’s snaps last week along with eight targets, he makes a lot of sense as a cheap tight end option and another piece you can throw into this stack. He was also second in routes ran by a tight end last week behind only Travis Kelce which is something I wasn’t expecting. Antonio Gibson seems to be having no issue playing through his shin injury and is another guy you can get to here, but probably not a guy I’m including in my stacks with Heinicke, he’s just not seeing enough pass-game work for me.
5-star plays: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Taylor Heinicke, Terry McLaurin
4-star plays: Darrell Williams, Ricky Seals-Jones, Antonio Gibson
GPP Note: I love both of these stacks, but so will the public, so get different with the stack in large-field tournaments.
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers
Vegas odds:
Total: 46.0
Line: Min -1.0
Rundown:
We’ll start this one with the Vikings, where it seems like Dalvin Cook may be on track to return this week as he’s practicing today (Wednesday). If he does end up playing I would assume he’s good to go at 100% and wouldn’t have an issue playing him here. We know this Vikings offense is generally pretty nice from a DFS perspective with guys like Cousins, Cooks, Thielen, and Jefferson, but I don’t know that I love this matchup. The Panthers defense has been pretty stingy this season outside of the Dallas game which is understandable. That being said, if you want to take a shot on a Vikings stack, you can simply because we know where the production will come from. For the most part, it will be those four main guys I just mentioned, Thielen and Jefferson are combining for nearly 46% of the targets on the team with Mattison/Cook receiving an additional 8%. If we count Mattison and Cook as one RB (they generally stick one guy), that’s 54% of targets across three players. Throw Kirk Cousins in there and you have yourself a full-stack that will likely get overlooked this week in large-field tournaments. From the Panthers, it sounds like Christian McCaffery will be a game-time decision here, but much like Cook, if he’s good to play I would think he’s in there without limitations. He would be an elite play at his price point assuming he’s in there. Sam Darnold had his worst game of the season last week which pretty much killed this receiving game as well. The Vikings defense isn’t what I would call “good” especially in the secondary, so I don’t mind going right back to these guys here. Particularly DJ Moore who has a 28% target share on the team, which will likely come down with McCaffery back, but it’s clear Darnold is looking to him when he drops back.
5-star plays: Christian McCaffery (I like his DraftKings price tag more), DJ Moore
4-star plays: Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, Sam Darnold
GPP Note: If I’m stacking one of these teams I think it would be the Panthers, honestly. The Vikings defense doesn’t scare me and if you have the money, a Darnold/McCaffery/Moore stack ran back with someone like Jefferson or Thielen is pretty interesting… expensive… but interesting.
I quickly want to shout out VIP member ‘bobbywow1’ for his success in NFL DFS last season, as he took home $1,000,000 cash on the FanDuel main slate last season. I know he’s ready to put our VIP tools back to use for this season!
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Vegas odds:
Total: 43.0
Line: Ind -3.5
Rundown:
This game comes in with the lowest implied total on the slate shockingly enough, we don’t have a game under 40 like we saw last week, but this one does seem like it will be a bit slower than the rest on the slate. We’ll start with Houston where I think it’s pretty cut and dry. Brandin Cooks is the only Houston player I’ll even think about having exposure to. Davis Mills had a career game last week, but if people want to chase that game let them, I’m going to make him prove it to me before I go too crazy on him. I think Cooks is interesting in GPPs simply due to the fact that the Colts have given up deep passes in bunches this season, so if Mills can get him the ball deep, he has a nice shot at busting one loose in this one. Not to mention he has a ridiculous 35% target share on this team, it’s pretty obvious who Mills is looking for when he drops back. From the Colts, I actually really like the price tag on Carson Wentz. He had a big game last week and is in the same price range as guys like Davis Mills who I think he’s far superior to at this point in his career. Stack him up with Michael Pittman Jr. and his 25% target rate, and you’ve got yourself a nice little stack. Don’t get too crazy with it but I think the sites baked the implied total into the price tag on Wentz. Jonathon Taylor has been great over their past two games and is a guy you can go right back to in this one. I would think the game script sets up well for him in this one as the Colts have shown to be a better team as of late, so no issue with him again here against a terrible defense.
5-star plays: Carson Wentz?
4-star plays: Brandin Cooks, Jonathon Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr.
GPP Note: I didn’t think I would have much interest in a stack in this one, but I don’t hate getting a sprinkle of something like Wentz/Pittman and running it back with Cooks on the other end.
Los Angeles Rams @ New York Giants
Vegas odds:
Total: 47.5
Line: LA -10.5
Rundown:
We’ll start with the Rams who grade out really nicely in this matchup. The Giants defense isn’t one that I’m all that afraid of and if we expect the Rams to be up early and often here we could see a nice game script for Darrell Henderson. Henderson gets a 97 rating in our Domination Station and hasn’t scored less than 15 DraftKings points all season long, I like him quite a bit and actually don’t hate pairing him up with Stafford and one of his receivers. He’s got at least five targets in half his games and will make your Rams stack virtually unowned. If you do want to go more toward the receiver route in this one, both Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods should be in play against this secondary. Kupp is obviously the preferred option but you’ll be paying for that whereas Woods received 14 targets last week and seems to be back in as a part of this offense. You can round this team out with Tyler Higbee who I think is just going to be in play for me all season if he’s going to be in this mid-$4k range. He’s a good bet for a touchdown each week and has solid receiving yard upside as well. From the Giants, I think we can safely assume Saquon Barkley to be out after injuring his ankle last week which means Devontae Booker should slide in as the bell cow here. The nice thing about Booker is it will be HIS backfield and won’t need to share it with anyone as he’s got legit three-down back upside due to his ability to catch the ball. I like him quite a bit on both sites even against a tougher Rams defense. In terms of this pass-game, we’ll need to get confirmation on a lot of injuries leading into Sunday. It sounds like Daniel Jones will be good to go after practicing on Thursday but Kenny Golladay will likely be out with Darius Slayton and Sterling Shephard both questionable but on the right track to play. If both those guys return I likely won’t pay this price tag on Kadarius Toney, but if one misses I’ll go right back to the well on him assuming he plays in his own right. He just passes the eye test for me and a guy Jones is clearly looking for as he’s seen at least nine targets in back-to-back games.
5-star plays: Darrell Henderson, Cooper Kupp
4-star plays: Matthew Stafford, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee, Daniel Jones, Kadarius Toney, Devontae Booker
GPP Note: If I’m stacking one of these teams it’s going to be the Rams simply because they’re the better offense and the pieces have a pretty big upside. If Jones is good to go, I don’t hate a stack with Booker and one of these receivers as they’ll likely be playing catch-up in this one.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens
Vegas odds:
Total: 51.5
Line: Bal -3.0
Rundown:
At first glance, this implied total seems slightly low to me just because these offenses are firing on all cylinders right now, but 51.5 is nothing to scoff at either. We’ll start with the Chargers, Austin Ekeler might be the best fantasy running back up to this point right next to Derrick Henry. He has back-to-back games with at least 32 DraftKings points, but this Ravens defense has been solid against the run. The nice thing with Ekeler is he can get it done through the air as well with at least five targets in four straight games, he’s a nice option yet again here. The status of Mike Williams will be something to monitor as he missed practice on Thursday, I would think he’s okay to play Sunday, but Friday’s practice will be a big indicator. The emergence of Williams has seemed to take a bit of the ceiling off Keenan Allen. Allen is still getting a ton of targets but we haven’t seen that 13 for 160 and 1 game from him yet this season. Not to say that it won’t happen, but we haven’t seen Williams get this kind of target share before. That said, he’s still got an incredible floor and someone you shouldn’t shy away from if stacking this Chargers offense. From the Ravens, Lamar Jackson seems too cheap to me. The guy has 37+ DraftKings points in two of his last four games and is well under $8k. The rushing ability gives him a really nice floor and adds the upside that he’s shown as a passer lately. He seems to be locking on to Marquise Brown as well which makes for a nice stacking option along with Mark Andrews who has a 98 rating in our Domination Station below. He had an absolute monster game last week and is far too cheap at this price tag here. I like a lot of pieces in this game, so if you’re stacking one side of it make sure to get a run-back piece from the other team, likely a WR or TE.
5-star plays: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews
4-star plays: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Marquise Brown
GPP Note: I love the Baltimore stack in this one, but really both sides are in play. If you stack up one of these offenses, as I said above, get yourself a piece of the opposing team and play the shootout narrative.
Check out Geek’s “First Look Lineup” construction video as well as you prepare for week 5!
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Vegas odds:
Total: 45.0
Line: GB -4.5
Rundown:
We’ll start with my Packers in this one where it’s incredibly hard to ignore Davante Adams. The guy has a 38% target rate and averaging over 24 DraftKings points per game with just two touchdowns on the season. The touchdowns will regress in a positive way considering he has a 33% red zone target share as well, making his floor/ceiling combo one that is hard to fade in cash games at the very least. I have no issue pairing him up with Aaron Rodgers either, Rodgers seems to always kill the Bears and I don’t think this defense really compares to any that they’ve had over the years. Not to say they’re bad by any means but I think they can be beaten in the secondary assuming Rodgers has time in the pocket. Aaron Jones makes for a solid option in the backfield as well, people may shy away due to the snaps that AJ Dillon has seen over the past couple of weeks, but the Packers know Jones is an elite talent and a guy they need to make a priority of getting the ball to. Lastly, if you’re feeling lucky and think you can get a touchdown out of Robert Tonyan he’s a fine option at sub-$4k, but you likely need that touchdown for him to pay off for you. From the Bears, we got some pretty big news that Damien Williams tested positive for Covid-19 which rules him out this week, and with David Montgomery already out it opens the door for Khalil Herbert to take the keys of this backfield. He had 18 rushes on 53% of the snaps last week and is a guy I love in this price range. I would assume Justin Fields continues to be the starting quarterback for the Bears which kind of kills the rest of the offense for me as he hasn’t shown the ability to make any of his receivers viable for DFS purposes.
5-star plays: Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, Khalil Herbert
4-star plays: Aaron Rodgers
GPP Note: I won’t stack the Bears until they show me any sign of life which may not come this season, but I do think you can get to the Packers stack with Rodgers and Adams with a secondary receiver being either Cobb or Tonyan if you want to double stack.
Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns
Vegas odds:
Total: 50.5
Line: Cle -2.5
Rundown:
On to the afternoon slate where we’ll start with the Cardinals. The way you beat the Browns is through the air, as their run defense is pretty stout although Murray’s rushing ability can change that in a hurry. They’ve given up just 75.6 rushing yards per game which is second-best in the league. That being said, Kyler Murray is pretty matchup-proof at this point and has some nice receiving options you can pair with him. DeAndre Hopkins has been sneaky consistent simply because he hasn’t had that massive game yet and has been held under 100 yards in every game this season. He’s been out of practice due to illness, but assuming he plays in this one I’m going to make a bold call and say that DeAndre Hopkins goes for 150 yards and a touchdown this week… lock that in! Clearly, I like stacking him up with Murray if you can find the money but like him as a one-off regardless. Then guys like Christian Kirk, AJ Green, and Rondale Moore are all GPP guys for me as a secondary receiver. Green plays the most snaps and has the highest target share on the season, so would likely be the guy I choose, but it’s tough to decipher who will have the big week any given day. Lastly, Chase Edmonds is interesting since we don’t love running on the Browns but a lot of his production comes through the air as a receiver. He’s been really consistent this season and a guy I would have no problem landing on, but probably a guy I’m not forcing in by any means. From the Browns, I mentioned last week that I’m probably not going to stack this offense all that much because I don’t think Baker Mayfield has the upside to get you there. I think we saw his ceiling last week where he went for 26 DraftKings… this was in a game where they scored 42 points by the way. The Browns get it done with their running backs in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, plain and simple. Both are solid options in this one, as I don’t have a whole lot of faith in this Cardinals defense even though they haven’t been all that bad this year.
5-star plays: DeAndre Hopkins
4-star plays: Kyler Murray, AJ Green, Christian Kirk, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt
GPP Note: You won’t catch me stacking the Browns even in a nice matchup, but they have a few nice one-off run backs if you’re looking to go with that Murray/Hopkins stack that I like.
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Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Vegas odds:
Total: 44.5
Line: Den -4.0
Rundown:
Starting with the Raiders, it will be interesting how they come out looking this week after losing coach Jon Gruden this week. It doesn’t help that they get a bad matchup with a solid Broncos defense either. I’m convinced the worst part about writing these full slate breakdowns is doing Bronco games, their defense is good enough to slow offenses down which means their own offense doesn’t need to do a whole lot either and we end up with implied totals like this one in bad matchups. There really isn’t a whole lot of anything I love on the Raiders side of this one outside of the usual Darren Waller obligatory tight end option. The Raiders have four guys with at least a 10% target rate which makes it tough to decipher which guy you want on a weekly basis, but Waller is a sure thing at a bad position. From the Broncos, I pretty much hammered it home already. Teddy Bridgewater just doesn’t give you the upside you want in DFS even though he’s a pretty solid real-life quarterback. I suppose you can make a case for Courtland Sutton who had 120 and one last week, to go along with his team-leading 23% target share, but it’s just a one-off piece that I’ll be more likely to fall on rather than target. I don’t hate Tim Patrick at his price tag, the guy is just super consistent if you’re looking for a floor in cash games, but that’s about it from this team and this game for me.
5-star plays: Darren Waller
4-star plays: Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick
GPP Note: More than likely just a stay-away game for me here.
Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots
Vegas odds:
Total: 51.0
Line: Dal -4.0
Rundown:
We’ll round out the slate starting with the Cowboys who get a pretty heavy pace down matchup against the Patriots but this game still has a nice implied total at 51. I have no issue with a little Dallas stack here due to the firepower this offense has. Dak Prescott has at least 21 DraftKings in all but one game this season and has some elite pass-catchers to go to with guys like CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Dalton Shultz, and even Ezekiel Elliot out of the backfield. We haven’t seen Lamb and Cooper get those huge target numbers like we did in week one but I do still think those will come due to how much this offense moves the ball. Then in the backfield, Ezekiel Elliot just continues to be solid and has a touchdown in four straight games, no issue with him at all here. From the Pats, Mac Jones hasn’t shown enough upside for me to stack this offense up but he’s shown the ability to at least make pass-catchers viable. Jakobi Meyers has a really nice 25% target share on this team and is a guy I like in this matchup. If he could ever find the end zone he’d be a really nice week in and week out receiver. The rest of this team is pretty blah for me, I don’t have any interest in the running game especially with Damien Harris fumbling last week… we know how Belichek treats running backs after fumbling, so we don’t really know how that will even look. More Meyers than anything from this side of the game.
5-star plays: Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliot
4-star plays: Dak Prescott, Dalton Shultz, Jakobi Meyers
GPP Note: TThe Pats don’t have enough upside for me to stack but Meyers makes for a nice run-back one-off for any Cowboys stack you want to run out there.
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