Get your NFL DFS research started with a full game-by-game breakdown of this week’s NFL slate. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for NFL DFS Week 5:
Oct 3, 2021; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) celebrates after scoring a touchdown in the second quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
First, let me kick things off with a cool video that Geek put out reviewing week 4 cash and GPP lineups. It’s important to go back through your thought process on a weekly basis and what you can tweak in future builds, check it out! Also, a quick shoutout to VIP Member JJWATTSUP on his big wins this weekend!
-> Week 4 – NFL Cash and GPP Lineup Review <-
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans
Vegas odds:
Total: 39.5
Line: NE -9.5
Rundown:
We start week 5 off with an absolutely nasty game, this is tied with the Broncos/Steelers game for the lowest implied total on the slate, as neither of these offenses really do a whole lot. We’ll start with my preferred side being the Patriots as big favorites. I likely won’t be stacking the Pats simply because I don’t think they have the upside, but I don’t hate a one-off in the receiving game, particularly with Jakobi Meyers. He leads the team with a 25% target share on the season and clearly a guy Mac Jones is looking to early and often. I do think it’s a decent time to buy low on Damien Harris as well coming off two bad weeks, however, those weeks were against two of the best rushing defenses in the league in New Orleans and Tampa. In fact, I love the mini-stack of him with the Patriots defense if you can afford them. I won’t generally dive too much into defenses but I do like this mini-stack if you can justify the price tag against the rookie, Davis Mills. Speaking of Davis Mills, let’s shift to the Texans side of this one, and there’s one guy and one guy only that I’ll have even slight interest in from this team. That being Brandin Cooks, the only somewhat relevant fantasy piece that I can see from Houston. He is owning the target shares for the Texans at 39% on the season. He had a down game last time out, but this whole team did at that. He’s not a guy I’m going to have a ton of simply because I don’t trust the ability of the quarterback to get him the ball, but if you’re looking for a silver lining, he’s a fine option.
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jakobi Meyers, Damien Harris, Pats DST, Brandin Cooks
GPP Note: Mostly one-offs from this game with some interest in the Harris/Pats DST for a GPP mini-stack.
Miami Dolphins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vegas odds:
Total: 48.0
Line: TB -10.0
Rundown:
We’ll start with the Miami side of this one, and continues to be a team that I really don’t have a whole lot of interest in until they can prove they can put up points. With Tua Tagovailoa still out it will continue to be the Jacoby Brissett show. Brissett hasn’t been terrible but he doesn’t give you the upside you’re looking for from a quarterback especially against a tough Bucs defense. That being said, the Bucs do rank 31st in DvP against opposing wide receivers according to the Domination Station below, so I don’t hate taking a one-off on a guy like Jaylen Waddle or DeVante Parker especially with Will Fuller out with a fractured finger.
These guys should see an increased target share, as the Dolphins should have trouble running the ball in this one, as the Bucs are one of the best run stoppers in the league. Lastly, Mike Gesicki has at least 16 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and clearly a guy Brissett is looking for over the middle of the field if you need a mid-range tight end option. From Tampa, I’m actually going to have more interest in the run game more than Tom Brady and these receivers. Xavien Howard and this Dolphins secondary have been lockdown this season, so I think we can find better stacks. That said, Leonard Fournette continues to draw a good number of targets out of the backfield and is a guy I like the price tag on for both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you do want to go with a wide-out one-off I would lean toward Chris Godwin or Antonio Brown as they can avoid Howard in the slot a bit more, but you can probably find better options.
5-star plays: Leonard Fournette
4-star plays: Mike Gesicki, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown
GPP Note: Pretty much just one-offs for me in this one, neither offense is all that interesting to stack for me.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers
Vegas odds:
Total: 44.5
Line: Car -4.0
Rundown:
Yet another game that isn’t all that thrilling from an implied total perspective but we’ll get started with the Eagles. Jalen Hurts continues to be a great fantasy option due to his rushing ability. He has at least 21 DraftKings points in each game this season and a quarterback you feel free to play without any of his receivers because of that rushing upside. I actually don’t hate pairing him with Miles Sanders and buying low on him right now, I think his price has fallen a bit too far for his upside. We saw Ezekiel Elliot run well against the Panthers last week and Sanders has some receiving upside as well. In terms of receivers, the target shares have been pretty spread out with DeVonta Smith leading the way at nearly 23%, but the tight ends have been the red zone go-to’s. I almost like taking the discount on Zach Ertz rather than going up to Dallas Goedert. Goedert will play more snaps but Ertz is at least $1,100 cheaper on both sites. From the Panthers, it’s been the Sam Darnold show all season and even more so with Christian McCaffrey out. With McCaffery out, Darnold has four rushing touchdowns over the past two weeks. Obviously, these numbers will regress, but it’s worth noting that they’re okay using him as a rushing threat in the red zone which increases his floor and ceiling. Not only that but the Eagles have been shredded in the air over the past few weeks. If you want to pair him with a guy like DJ Moore I would have no issue with that. Moore has busted out in a big way this season averaging nearly 24 DraftKings points per game and drawing a pretty massive 31% target share. Chuba Hubbard was less than impressive last week and if Darnold is going to keep getting these red zone carries I’m going to get away from Hubbard at this price tag, I’m not sure how much upside he has at this price.
5-star plays: DJ Moore
4-star plays: Jalen Hurts, Sam Darnold, Zach Ertz, DeVonta Smith
GPP Note: Neither side of this one are going to be top stacks for me on this slate, but I can see taking a shot on them in GPPs if you want to get a little different.
I quickly want to shout out VIP member ‘bobbywow1’ for his success in NFL DFS last season, as he took home $1,000,000 cash on the FanDuel main slate last season. I know he’s ready to put our VIP tools back to use for this season!
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Vegas odds:
Total: 48.5
Line: Ten -4.5
Rundown:
We’ll start with the Tennesse side of this one, and it looks like they’ll get AJ Brown back after he returned to practice today. Julio Jones was held out again which could play well for the target share for Brown. I want to make sure he gets in a full practice before I get too crazy here, but have no issue getting some exposure against a bad Jags defense if he does seem to be a full go here. I won’t have much interest in Ryan Tannehill here, I’m just going to wait for him to prove it to me before I get to him this season, he’s started extremely slow. Lastly, you can’t talk about the Titans without bringing up Derrick Henry who had another monster week last week against the Jets. You’re going to pay a fortune for him and is actually over $10k on FanDuel, but for good reason, he’s been one of the better fantasy options across any position. I have no issue going right back to him against a bad Jags defense. Things start to get interesting from the Jacksonville side. The Titans defense has been bad all season and this offense showed signs of life last week on Thursday Night Football. I probably won’t be fully stacking Trevor Lawrence with his receivers because I’m not sure the upside is there on him without much running in his game. I do like some of his receivers though, the Domination Station shows the Titans to be ranked 30th in DvP against opposing receivers, so guys like Laviska Shenault and Marvin Jones are interesting and should see an expanded target share with DJ Chark out. Lastly, James Robinson has really come on over the past two weeks and is a guy I’ll have some interest in here as well. His price hasn’t come up all that much even after posting back-to-back 20 point outings on DraftKings.
5-star plays: Derrick Henry
4-star plays: AJ Brown, Laviska Shenault, Marvin Jones, James Robinson
GPP Note: I would like these stacks better if I had more faith in the upsides of these quarterbacks, but I just don’t see it right now.
Denver Broncos @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Vegas odds:
Total: 39.5
Line: Pit -1.0
Rundown:
Talk about a snoozer… this game is right there with the Pats/Texans game as the lowest implied totals on the slate at 39.5. We’ll start with the Broncos where we’re not even sure who will be behind center on Sunday as Teddy Bridgewater is still in concussion protocol. It does sound like they’re hopeful that Bridgewater can get cleared and start this game, but for now, Drew Lock is handling the snaps in practice. Regardless of who starts this one, I won’t have any interest in what should be a low-scoring game relative to others on this slate. I wish I could say I had an interest in this running game, but that’s not true either. Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon are essentially splitting snaps right now and this Steelers run-defense is no joke, so another fade spot for me. Really the only piece I can see getting some of is Courtland Sutton if you want to get different as a one-off, he has some upside but is still not a guy I’m going crazy on. It doesn’t get a whole lot better on the Pittsburgh side of things, as Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t look capable of running an NFL offense right now, but not getting a ton of help from his offensive line. You can make a case for Diontae Johnson on DraftKings due to the PPR bonus, as he’s the guy Ben goes to on those little two-yard dump-offs. Najee Harris is somewhat interesting but the Domination Station shows the Broncos to be the top-ranked team in DvP against opposing running backs. The one saving grace that Harris has however is his ability to catch the ball and the targets he’s been seeing. Harris is tied for the team lead with Johnson in target shares and another guy receiving those dump-offs from Roethlisberger. He has at least seven targets in back-to-back games, but overall, not a game I’ll have much exposure to at all.
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, Courtland Sutton
GPP Note: Yuck.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Vegas odds:
Total: 49.0
Line: Min -9.0
Rundown:
We’ll start with the Lions in this one, as they head to Minnesota. Jared Goff hasn’t been a guy I’ve had a whole lot of interest in this season partially due to his lack of pass-catchers, but seems like he could be a solid value option here against a bad Vikings secondary. TJ Hockenson would be the main stacking piece I would want here but no issue pairing him with D’Andre Swift either. Swift was frustrating last week but got his snap percentage up to 73% which is a season-high over Jamaal Williams 30%. Swift has at least five targets in each game this season and is one of the better pairing options with Goff should you go this route. Then we go to Minnesota where fantasy points are no stranger with this offense year in and year out. The fantasy production is pretty concentrated on Cousins, Cook, Thielen, and Jefferson with a sprinkling of Tyler Conklin as of late. They had a bad week as a whole against a tough Browns defense last week but get a perfect bounce-back spot here against a bad Lions defense. I think the full stack is in play here for the Vikings starting with Cousins who has at least 25 DraftKings points in three of his four games this season, his one dud being last week. Jefferson and Thielen combine for a 47% target share, so we kind of know where he wants to go with it. The Cousins/Jefferson/Thielen stack is certainly interesting or you can throw Dalvin Cook in there as a one-off as well, the Lions have not been able to stop running backs all season.
5-star plays: Dalvin Cook, D’Andre Swift, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen
4-star plays: Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, TJ Hockenson
GPP Note: I like the Vikings stack in this one quite a bit, but think Goff/Swift/Hockenson is certainly interesting as a cheaper route for GPPs.
Check out Geek’s “First Look Lineup” construction video as well as you prepare for week 5!
Green Bay Packers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas odds:
Total: 51.0
Line: GB -3.0
Rundown:
We’ll stick in the NFC North with the Packers as we get our highest implied total yet at 51. This Packers offense looks really nice from a raw point perspective against a bad Bengals defense in this one. Davante Adams has a 96 rating in the Domination Station which is tough to beat and probably had near a floor game last week going for 12 DraftKings points which is always good from a floor perspective. He should have no issue doing whatever he wants in this one and has over a 36% target share in this Green Bay offense. On the other end of those throws is Aaron Rodgers who I have no issue with stacking with Adams, we know the upside is there with him and a guy I’ll have interest in in all formats if spending up at quarterback. Lastly, Aaron Jones had a down game last week against a good Steelers run defense, but gets a great bounce-back spot here. James Robinson tore up this Bengals defense last week and I like Jones’ odds of doing the same thing here. From the Bengals, the biggest news will be if Joe Mixon will be able to go here or not. He didn’t practice today and sounds like he’s truly questionable, so keep your eyes on his status as the week goes on but Samaje Perine stands to benefit should Mixon miss this one. It does sound like they’ll get Tee Higgins back in this one which will be a boost to their receiving game, not to mention it looks like the Packers will be without Jaire Alexander, one of the more shutdown cornerbacks in the league. I like these receivers for the Bengals, especially Higgins if he’s able to go at that price tag. Tyler Boyd had the big game last week going for 118 yards and leading this team in target shares. Then Ja’Marr Chase feels like more of a GPP option as he has the big-play potential. Then we get to Joe Burrow, who I do think is viable here as the Bengals will likely be behind and needing to throw for most of this game. Lastly, don’t chase that game from CJ Uzomah, he won’t do that again, and if he does… well I’ll buy his jersey or something because that was the biggest outlier game there could be.
5-star plays: Davante Adams, Aaron Jones
4-star plays: Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Ja’Marr Chase, Samaje Perine
GPP Note: I think you can stack up both of these sides pretty comfortably. The Packers are the much more expensive stack but for good reason. On the other end, the Bengals will likely need to throw more often to keep up and like the value on these receivers with no Jaire Alexander for the Pack.
New Orleans Saints @ Washington Football Team
Vegas odds:
Total: 44.5
Line: NO -1.5
Rundown:
Starting with the away Saints in this one, it’s hard to have any interest in this offense outside of Alvin Kamara. At the moment, they rank dead last in the NFL in pass plays run, so that essentially takes Jameis Winston and his pass-catchers out of consideration for me not to mention he’s been held under 14 DraftKings points in three straight games. I can’t even say I love Kamara here either, he’s not getting the targets we’re used to him getting with Drew Brees at quarterback, in fact, he had a zero target game last week. Kind of a stay-away team for me outside of Kamara for GPPs simply because we know he has the upside to break a slate. From Washington, Taylor Heinicke has been really good as the starting quarterback for this team. He has at least 21 FanDuel points in each of his starts. The only issue is the Saints defense is pretty solid against the pass and should be a lower scoring game. That being said, one of his pass-catchers is jumping off the page for me if he’s able to play. Curtis Samuel projects out as the top point per dollar play at the wide receiver position on DraftKings according to our NFL optimizer below.
Not only that, but he’s projecting to be under 7% owned on the main slate. He’s a pretty clear value option in all formats for me, but keep an eye on his status as he wasn’t a participant in practice on Wednesday. I suppose you can make a case for Antonio Gibson as he has been pretty solid over the past two weeks, but I just hate playing running backs against the Saints defense. The same can be said for Terry McLaurin, the upside is there but pretty meh for me even off a big game last week.
5-star plays: Curtis Samuel (DraftKings)
4-star plays: Alvin Kamara, Taylor Heinicke
GPP Note: Just one-offs in this one for me.
Chicago Bears @ Los Vegas Raiders
Vegas odds:
Total: 44.5
Line: LV -5.5
Rundown:
On to the afternoon slate, where hopefully the games get a bit sexier for DFS purposes. We’ll start with the Bears where we finally have some clarity on who the starting quarterback will be from Coach Nagy. Justin Fields will be the guy this week after a pretty below-average week last week and even though you probably don’t want to start him as your quarterback, he kind of kills the options around him as well. Allen Robinson has been pretty non-existent since Fields took over, as he’s looked to Darnell Mooney when he needs completion. Mooney got a price bump this week but is still a fine GPP guy, he has at least seven targets in three of his four games this season. The big news from the Bears is David Montgomery is going to be out for a few weeks which will open the door for Damien Williams to be the workhorse in this offense. There really isn’t anyone behind Williams either that we need to be worried about taking his snaps, so I do like him in this spot as he’s proven to be a nice pass-catching running back in his career and has performed well when given the opportunity. From the Raiders, Derek Carr came down to Earth last week against the Chargers but will look to bounce back against a middle-of-the-road secondary. His main stack pairing should be Darren Waller as usual here and is even fine as a one-off considering the landscape of the tight end position. He has at least seven targets in each game this season and even better, has 32% of the team’s red-zone targets on the year. He’s one of the safest tight-end options there are on this slate. Outside of him, draw up some names and put them in a hat from this Raiders offense. Bryan Edwards, Hunter Renfroe, and Henry Ruggs are all GPP dart options with Renfroe giving you the highest ceiling. Lastly, Josh Jacobs returned last week, and was pretty clear he’s going to be the workhorse going forward after some odd Peyton Barber speculation. I don’t actually hate the price tag on Jacobs especially if he can get targets in the passing game like he saw last week.
5-star plays: Darren Waller, Damien Williams
4-star plays: Darnell Mooney, Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs
GPP Note: If you’re going to stack an offense it will be the Raiders, but I would probably leave it as a single stack with Carr and Waller, unless you want to take a shot on one of these dart receivers to throw in there for large field GPPs.
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Cleveland Browns @ Los Angeles Chargers
Vegas odds:
Total: 47.0
Line: LAC -2.5
Rundown:
We’ll start with the Cleveland side of this one and I touched on it a bit last week in my breakdown article, but it’s going to be hard for me to love this Browns stack at all this season. Baker Mayfield is a solid real-life quarterback, but man he’s hard to trust for DFS purposes especially from a GPP standpoint where you need the upside that he doesn’t appear to have. For that reason, I’m going to continue to fade this Cleveland stack and stick to one-offs in the receiving and running game. Nick Chubb is going to be the most consistent option on this team and a guy I have no issue getting to here. We haven’t seen him have one of those 100+ yard 2 TD games yet this season but came close in week 1, so hey, maybe he’s due here. The receiving game is just too hard to predict for me to have a ton of interest. They have five guys over a 10% target share with none of them getting over the 20% mark, so it’s probably Chubb and potentially Kareem Hunt from this team and that’s about it. The Chargers are a different story, Justin Herbert can sling it and keep this offense moving. His receiving options make him a really appealing stacking option each week as well. We saw Mike Williams have a dud last time out but has been a freight train in every other game this season and we know what we’re getting with Keenan Allen for the most part. Austin Ekeler is the type of back that you can pair with your quarterback too due to his pass-catching skills. He has at least 22 DraftKings points in three straight games and had one of the better games of his career on Monday Night Football last week. Lastly, I don’t have an issue with using Jared Cook as a value tight end option either, he caught six of his seven targets last week with a touchdown to put the cherry on top.
5-star plays: Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen
4-star plays: Justin Herbert, Mike Williams, Nick Chubb
GPP Note: I love the upside you get with a Chargers stack. The only thing I don’t love is how methodical this Browns offense can be which keeps the ball out of Herbert’s hands. That said, the upside is there for GPPs and a stack that I will definitely have exposure to.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Vegas odds:
Total: 52.0
Line: Dal -7.0
Rundown:
To the NFC East, where we should have a fun matchup for both real football and DFS purposes, as this game has the highest implied total on the main slate this week. We’ll start with the Giants where we’re going to need some clarity on the wide receiver situation with Darius Slayton and Sterling Shephard both missing last week’s game and have yet to practice this week. At the moment, I’m just going to operate under the assumption that they’re out again. In week 4 we saw Kadarius Toney lineup opposite Kenny Golladay and John Ross get extra looks as well, here’s how these three shook out from a fantasy point perspective last week.
- Kenny Golladay – 14.6 FanDuel points; 20.6 DraftKings points
- Kadarius Toney – 10.9 FanDuel points; 13.9 DraftKings points
- John Ross – 15.2 FanDuel points; 16.7 DraftKings points
Ross may stand out as the best from a price perspective, but it’s because he got the touchdown. He only played on 44% of the snaps while Toney and Golladay were both over 78%, so these three would be the guys I would go back to if Slayton and Shephard need to miss again, with an emphasis on Golladay and Toney (who looked really crisp). Then of course I don’t have an issue throwing Daniel Jones in and stacking this offense up, it’s the highest total on the slate, so don’t shy away. Lastly, it feels like Saquon Barkley is starting to look like Saquon Barkley again. He has at least 21 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and passes the eye test. I wish he was getting more rushing attempts but the pass game work is making up for it. From the Cowboys, we may have a bit of an issue on our hands with Amari Cooper who didn’t practice on Wednesday with a rib injury and only played in 48% of the team’s snaps last week. Unless he gets a full practice in before this game, I will likely fade and just throw my deck and CeeDee Lamb. Lambs fantasy production has fallen each week since week one’s monster game, but we know the talent is there and the price tag is inviting. Ezekiel Elliot is just the opposite, he’s turned up the gas since week one and is running his strongest right now. The Domination Station gives him a 90 rating in this one and a running back that will definitely make my player pool. Lastly, Dak Prescott had a nice bounce-back game last week with only 14 completions, four going for touchdowns which is crazy to think about. You can go right back to him in this spot and stack up this offense. The offense actually can be cheapened by going to guys like Cedric Wilson and Dalton Shultz who both caught touchdowns last week. They should continue to see an expanded role with Gallup out and Cooper banged up.
5-star plays: CeeDee Lamb, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliot
4-star plays: Daniel Jones, Dak Prescott, Dalton Shultz, Kadarius Toney, Kenny Golladay
GPP Note: This game has the highest total on the slate so you won’t be the only one on these stacks, but they’re good options in what should be a nice fantasy game. If you do stack them up, make yourself different – throw Barkley in your stacks with Jones or Elliot in with Dak, give yourself some leverage.
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Vegas odds:
Total: 50.0
Line: Ari -5.0
Rundown:
We’ll round out the slate starting with the Niners, and at the moment we don’t know who will be behind center for them as Jimmy Garoppolo is dealing with a calf injury. DraftKings and FanDuel got ahead of this and priced Trey Lance up so he wouldn’t be massive chalk at a $4k price tag which is nice, so with that said I will likely just avoid the quarterback situation until Lance shows what he can do out there. Deebo Samuel continues to produce with another 35+ point fantasy performance, you should have exposure to him probably every week if you’re entering 150 lineups. Although, Lance being inserted into the starting lineup may shake this offense up a bit. Then we get to George Kittle who missed practice on Wednesday, but we saw this last week where he didn’t practice all week then went out and got 11 targets against the Seahawks. If he’s active on Sunday morning, I have no issue throwing him in as your tight end at a reasonable price tag. Then from the backfield, I will probably just fade it if Elijah Mitchell is a go, which sounds like it will be the case. Shanahan has no issue giving multiple guys looks and they haven’t been able to run the ball as they have in years past. I’ll just wait until we know who THE guy is. Lastly, it’s worth noting that Brandon Aiyuk’s snap share fell back down to 67% last week, he’s hard to trust right now until those snaps come up and are consistent. From Arizona, Kyler Murray projects out as the highest-scoring quarterback in the NFL Optimizer below at 25.62 fantasy points. I’m not going to have any issue with you getting to him at this point. He’s got a rushing touchdown in three of their four games this season and getting it done through the air as well, and this Niners secondary isn’t what it use to be.
The main stacking option I would go to would be DeAndre Hopkins for obvious reasons, but I like throwing Chase Edmonds in this stack. Edmonds has at least five targets in three straight games and looked great on the ground last week. He’s got a floor because of the receiving ability and if he can find the endzone will be in for a nice week. Outside of those two, you can take a tournament shot on guys like AJ Green, Christian Kirk, and Rondale Moore considering this team has the most passing yards in the league at the moment, they’ve gotta go to somebody!
5-star plays: Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins
4-star plays: Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Chase Edmonds, AJ Green, Christian Kirk
GPP Note: The Cardinals are the side I want in this one, I’ll make Trey Lance show it to me before I fully stack that Niners offense.
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