Back by popular demand, NFL DFS Box Checkers shows you to quickly identify key players for this week’s fantasy football slate in minutes. The DFS Army NFL Research Station is a very powerful suite of statistical analysis with fully customizable, filterable, sortable functionality. What used to take days or hours now takes mere minutes to discover! Follow along as @Choppodong rips these core plays to shreds every week in less than 15 minutes…
At the bottom, see a secret video normally only available to our VIPs! How to setup the optimizer to crush the top 1% and 2% in contests like leagues and microboosters. As the self-proclaimed “king of the smallaballa,” Chop has uncovered another easy to follow system capable of building bankrolls for anyone struggling on Fanduel or Draftkings.
Week 6 NFL Box Checkers
Quarterbacks
5 categories lead to making value historically. Home NFL QBs perform better than road QBs. Favored teams are implied to score more points, and their QBs do the scoring. Game totals make sense to follow, the higher the better. And, efficiency trumps volume! Volume is nice, but efficient QBs are proven to put up more fantasy points than those banking on volume alone. To finish, salary. You can price yourself out of making value unless putting up a true ceiling performance. In the NFL, we find staying under $8000 in Draftkings salary helps…in fact, the cheaper the better.
Lamar Jackson sweeps the board this week. Next in line are Dak, Stafford, and Baker Mayfield.
That doesn’t mean avoid everyone else, obviously. And, ownerships will matter in a cash game. This simply means if Herbert is the highest owned QB, Lamar is a phenomenal pivot this week in a matchup to test his ceiling again. But, avoiding Mahomes or Murray in a gpp is also just as senseless. Their matchups/situations aren’t as strong as this week, but they are studs. And, studs often gonna stud.
Running Backs
Once again, home teams matter for RBs, and being favored obviously affects game scripts in a positive way. High scoring game environments help push those touchdowns around, landing on running backs. We want volume at all positions not QB. 18 touches (rushes + receptions) is the goal here. Passing game work gives us safety when the game script flips. Red Zone work matters…especially inside the 10. And, salary works here again. Staying under $8000 like our NFL QBs helps the running backs, too.
Chubb, Taylor, and Henderson make very strong plays. Ekeler is slightly stronger than even CMC and Dalvin Cook (not that CMC and Cook shouldn’t be on your radar). What you should also pick up on here is how quickly RB drops off…and why we pay up for a floor in a lot of cases. The rest quickly devolves into a crapshoot.
Wide Receivers
Home field advantage proves negligible for NFL WRs. But, being favored is still important to hitting fantasy value. High totals matter, but when favored, we want team totals over 25 points. When the dog, we want UNDER 22 points indicating garbage time potential. Volume matters again. We’d like to see more than 7 targets per game on the average, and we want to see more than about 25% usage in the Red Zone…especially on Fanduel. Salary is key again, so we stay under $7000 here. Remember, this position is volatile as hell. But, we have backtested 250+ contests and found the top 3 Milli-Maker lineups contain someone meeting these criteria almost 60% of the time…..good odds for a crapshoot like WR.
Now, things get interesting. First, notice names like DeAndre Hopkins and Amari Cooper aren’t even on this list. Why? They aren’t averaging even 7 targets a game right now…sort of a travesty sure to correct itself as the season goes. But, for now, at their price points, they aren’t trustworthy enough to be considered in your lower risk contests. Big tourneys? Of course!! I never said this list is the Bible and if someone isn’t on it they are trash. I’m saying keep them to the tournaments because you can’t trust them to pay off their salaries consistently right now.
Second, why are all the colors towards the bottom? Mostly simple pricing again. Why pay for some $7500 NFL WR when you can get the same criteria met for $5800? You are going to build a better overall lineup by avoiding costly receivers with no discernable advantage at such a volatile position. Pay up for your RB and down for your WRs. As long as the WR is in a quality situation, and getting targets and RZ work, you are going to build a stronger lineup that has better winning chances than paying all the way up for the brand name your buddies are talking about. Be smarter than your buddies.
Tight Ends
Here we go with the home and favorite stuff again. NFL TE depends on it. We want volume, so focus on 7+ targets again, too. Red Zone work goes without saying at TE. And, we’ve discovered they also benefit from closer games, under 7 point spreads. If favored, you want ITTs over 26 points, and if the dog, under 24 points. Cheap plays, too!! On Draftkings, $3000-$5000 seems to be landing in the Milli a ridiculous 68% of the time…..and until week 1 this year, we had no recorded example of an 8k TE appearing in the Milli winner. That changes with Travis Kelce, and you can speculate all the previous slates he might not have been a part of due to prime time or Monday Night games. Fact is….the super high-priced TE is rare and likely cost prohibitive most times. Tend to pay down.
Again, no TE is “safe.” But, if you can’t find someone checking every box, you might as well pay down for someone close at half the damned price. Until Dalton Schultz’s price climbs, I mean wtf?
Where to Use These DFS Players
Box Checkers players are typically obvious, chalky (see our NFL Chalkboard Tool) and highly owned. Occasionally, we get some that slip under the radar (see our Leverage Stacks components).
However, these players can be used in ANY format from NFL cash games to big tourneys (or “Ladder Lineups” combining both!). The key to tourney play is using a core of these players and adding in some other lower owned pieces to give your lineup some uniqueness and creativity with the upside to beat a lot of competitors. As the DFS NFL world becomes more and more advanced, sometimes simplifying our process actually goes a little against the grain.
Now, How Would You Set Up an Optimizer?
I have backtested my own contests looking for the elusive “top 1%” and found a very fast and easy way to set up optimizers. Gone are the days of hours and hours of research. Make your own tweaks, but start winning more money this week.
Imagine how openly I share with our VIPs? Ask any question, and I will dive into YOUR game and help turn things around. (See how to join DFS Army below.)
Box Checkers Setup NFL Week 6
We will inject the optimizer setup video later in the week. For now, narrow you player pool using sorting and filtering. Here’s how…
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