Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Oct 29, 2021; Portland, Oregon, USA; Portland Trail Blazers point guard Damian Lillard (0) moves to the basket against LA Clippers center Ivica Zubac (40) during the second half at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
PG Damian Lillard $9400
POR @ CHA
Though this is a small 4 game slate, there are still quite a few stars to choose from. That should keep Lillard to 20% or lower. In the event that LeBron James is ruled out before lock, Lillard would likely be in the teens as Russell Westbrook would be the clear spend-up PG. Both the Blazers and Hornets rank in the middle of the league in terms of pace of play. This game does not have a total yet but is a pick ’em. Hornets games tend to be high-scoring and stay close till the end. There have been social media posts about Lillard’s supposedly poor start to the season. He has not eclipsed 50 DKpts yet this year. This recency bias should suppress Lillard’s ownership today. All of this is just fluff as there is no reason to be concerned that Lillard cannot break out for a ceiling game.
He had a 31.1% usage rate last year but is at 29.5% right now. This should increase to over 30% as the season goes on. The Blazers once again were in a blowout. With this projected to be a close game, Lillard should finally be forced to play into the high 30s in mins. His playing time is being staggered with CJ McCollum which helps both of them. There are no lockdown defenders to be worried about on the Hornets. Rather, Lillard should be able to cook Mason Plumlee in the pick and roll. It is a question of when and not if Lillard can have a big game. He should be someone to target and get over the field for tournaments.
SF/PF Bojan Bogdanovic $5200
UTA @ MIL
Taking shot-dependent players is fine as their ownerships are always going to be low. This is DAILY fantasy so it only takes one hot shooting game to pay off the price tag. The 3pt bonus works in Bogdanovic’s favor. This matchup vs Milwaukee sets up well for shooters. The Bucks have been a funnel defense for years as they allow a lot of 3pt attempts. Bogdanovic is putting up a consistent amount of shots in the mid-teens to start the year. He has contributed decently with the rebounds and has gotten 1stl every game. Aside from the first game, he has not shot the ball particularly well. On a small slate, my interest for taking chances on shooters increases. This matchup fits perfectly with what Bogdanovic does well.
Bogdanovic is a bit cheap today. He generally is in the high 5k range. Even though Mike Conley will be back for this game, Bogdanovic’s shots have been consistent throughout the year. This actually could benefit Bojan because having that extra playmaker to set him up is key for a player who does not excel at creating his own shot. A 4 game slate does not require every player in your lineup to go for 7-8x. All the players in Bogdanovic’s price range do not stand out. You are not building your lineup around him. He is useful as a last guy in type of play to complete your lineup.
PF/C Blake Griffin $4600
BKN vs DET
Paul Millsap and Nicolas Claxton have been ruled out for this game. It is possible that James Johnson enters the rotation, but he should not be too much of a factor. Last game vs Indiana, Millsap was active and Griffin started and ended up playing 20 mins. LaMarcus Aldridge was on fire in the 2nd half so once he entered for Griffin, he never left the floor. With that 21pts, 8reb, 34.5DKpts performance, Aldridge likely will be chalky. It is not ideal that Griffin has been hovering around 20 mins and is not closing games. However, he has shot poorly. If he plays a bit better, he could certainly pick up more mins. This is a spot where Griffin can do that as the Pistons do not provide much resistance.
For the narrative watchers, this is a revenge spot for Griffin. He spent 4 seasons with the Pistons although they treated him well by granting his wish to compete for a ring. There should not be any ill-will here. Griffin is also someone that you should not be building your lineup around. He is a useful piece to complete your lineup if you happen to land in this price range. His PF/C position flexibility is also helpful. Due to his recent games, he should be at most, owned in the teens unless someone else is ruled out. Be sure to keep an eye on this as the Nets should easily handle the Pistons even if one of their stars rests.
SF/PF Larry Nance Jr $3500
POR @ CHA
There are some interesting sub-4k options for this small slate. Cade Cunnigham and if LeBron James is ruled out, Malik Monk would be the best value plays. There really are not any cheap forwards so Nance should be a good source of value to fill out this position. Nance averaged 0.85FPM last season as a member of the Cavaliers. Of course, this rate increased in his spot starts. He should play in the high teens in mins every night. This spot is sneaky. The Blazers ran Nance at center for a bit over 4mins vs the Clippers. Though that is not a lot of time, it does show Chauncey Billups’ willingness to do it if needed. PJ Washington is back from injury with the Hornets. He plays as the small-ball center. With both of these teams having solid pick and roll ball handlers, both teams could be forced to go away from using a traditional center.
Nance would be the better matchup over Jusuf Nurkic and Cody Zeller for Washington. The Hornets have done a good job limiting turnovers to begin the year, but LaMelo Ball does have trouble taking care of the ball. They had the 7th most turnovers last season so unless they somehow fixed this problem that drastically, there should be more steals for their opponents. Nance does produce solid defensive stats. There is a chance for increased playing time in this matchup that the field will not see. This is my favorite value forward as of now for this slate.
Just missed the cut: Donovan Mitchell, Jalen Green, Jae’Sean Tate
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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