Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Oct 23, 2021; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) reacts against the New Orleans Pelicans during the first quarter at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
C Karl-Anthony Towns $9900
MIN vs DEN
Though not to the same degree as Rudy Gobert, DFS players do not like to roster centers against Nikola Jokic. This is due to Jokic’s massive role on the offensive end forcing opposing centers to guard on-ball more, leading to increased foul risk. Looking at KAT’s games vs Jokic, he has not had these problems. Towns fouled out in 2 meetings but 1 went to OT. He has played 35+ mins in many of these matchups, some not quite due to blowout. Looking at his performances, KAT has been a double-double machine vs Jokic, including multiple 30-10 games. New Timberwolves coach, Chris Finch, is not afraid to let Towns play heavy mins. In the first 2 Wolves games of the season, one was a blowout, while KAT fouled out in the 2nd. There is no denying there is foul trouble risk here. Knowing that KAT has been able to stay on the floor and play well should provide more confidence in rostering Towns today.
Towns has a 29.6% usage rate averaging 1.52 FPM through 4 games. He should lead his team in usage as it is a 4 game sample size in which Towns fouled out in 1 leading to increased usage for D’Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards. The Wolves are rested and playing at home while the Nuggetts are on a back-to-back travelling into Minnesota. Though, the Nuggetts blew out the Mavericks on Friday night so the starters did not have to play heavy mins. This game has a solid 221.5 total with a 2.5 spread in favor of the Wolves. Similar to Embiid, when Towns is under 10k, I have interest in him when he is in a good spot. This matchup does not stand out since there are Giannis, Curry, and Jokic as pay-ups. Towns should be at a fraction of their ownerships, with savings, and similar upside.
SF Khris Middleton $7800
MIL vs SAS
Another game with Jrue Holiday out means a chalky Giannis Antetokounmpo. Yes, Giannis would be a core play. For tournaments though, finding a way to get away from the chalk stud should always be on your mind. It is very straight-forward here with the Bucks. Middleton benefits as well and because people are already rostering Giannis, that leaves Middleton on the board still. For a 10 game slate, it is not optimal to roster both Giannis and Middleton. Even on smaller slates, they rarely will be optimal in the same lineup. As the clear #2 option, Middleton is the easy pivot off of Giannis on every slate the Bucks play in. Plus, Middleton is the preferred option in the final minute if they need a jump shot or to make free throws. The Bucks just played the Spurs last week where both of these players did not play that well.
With Holiday and Bobby Portis off the court this season, Middleton has a 31.1% usage rate averaging 1.10 FPM. Middleton played 35 mins vs San Anotonio and had a rather uncharacteristic game. He kept turning the ball over to start the game, finishing with 6 turnovers in total. He had only 3 asts and 2 rebs but was able to salvage the day by scoring 28 real pts. Both the asts and rebs should increase with Donte DiVincenzo, Brook Lopez, Holiday, and Portis all out. Now close to 8k, and coming off of a poor shooting performance, Middleton’s ownership should be low considering where we usually expect it to be when the Bucks have key players out. With Mike Conley resting, Joe Ingles should be a chalky SF option, along with Josh Giddey.
PG Devonte’ Graham $6000
NOP vs NYK
I generally do not target players vs the Knicks. This slate seems chalky already and considering there are many teams on a back-to-back, it should get even chalkier. This matchup is not easy for the Pelicans. They are one of those teams on a B2B but are at home. The Knicks have played multiple OT periods so their possessions per game are inflated. Of course, this means the stats are all inflated as well due to the increased minutes played compared to other teams. The Knicks have allowed the 2nd most 3pt attempts this season. Looking at the last 3 games (taking away the double OT vs BOS), the Knicks allow the 10th most 3s attempted which is a high number for the pace the Knicks play at. Graham has attempted at least 10 3s in 4 of his 6 games. His peripherals have been decent and he does not have the same minute concerns as his teammate, Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
Graham has a 23.1% usage rate, averaging 1.04 FPM. His rotations are staggered in his favor. He is playing alongside low usage players who do not handle the ball in his 2nd stint of each half. Josh Hart is back but he relies on his teammates to set up his baskets as well as rebounds. With Zion Williamson still out, everyone will continue to benefit. NAW should be the better FPM player out of the 2 guards in the long run but actually is not right now. With the additional mins, I prefer Graham if I had to choose between the 2. There should be some chalky PGs such as Derrick White, TJ McConnell, and Cade Cunningham. Graham is volatile but that includes a ceiling of 8x at this price. Targeting him at single-digit ownership in tournaments is a sneaky play today.
PG/SG Alex Caruso $4200
CHI vs UTA
Patrick Williams is slated to miss the rest of the season with a wrist injury. During the preseason, Javonte Green started while Williams was out. I would expect that to be the case again at least for this game. Though Green might start, that does not mean he will close. DeRozan is capable of playing PF so it is easy for the Bulls to slide everyone down which allows Caruso to pick up those closing mins. He played 33 mins last game. With a weak bench, the Bulls should continue giving big mins to Caruso. His steal rate is unsustainable. Recording 4+ steals in 3 of the 5 games played is not going to continue. Caruso has a low usage rate (13.3%) because there are 4 big dogs on his team and he does not need the ball to be productive. He averages 0.82 FPM. Now with an increase in playing time, he should continue to produce at a similar rate.
By coming off the bench, Caruso should be able to dish out his usual assists as he plays with a few starters when he subs in. Caruso is a better rebounder than his 1.8 season average suggests. Though his steals will drop down, his rebounds can compensate for that. Mike Conley has been ruled out for this game so not having to deal with his defense is a plus. Though the Jazz have a reputation of a team that has strong fundamentals, they have allowed 9 steals a game to their opponents, which is 10th most in the league. Conley is a sure-handed facilitator. With him out, the Jazz could have more trouble taking care of the ball. This is a small sample size but it works in the favor of Caruso with his steal numbers.
Just missed the cut: Domantas Sabonis, RJ Barrett, Bojan Bogdanovic, Derrick Favors
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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