Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Oct 20, 2021; San Antonio, Texas, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward Keldon Johnson (3) dunks as Orlando Magic center Mo Bamba (5) looks on in the first half at AT&T Center. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports
C Steven Adams $5600
MEM @ GSW
Adams was 25% owned on the Wednesday main slate. He picked up his 3rd foul with 2:34 left in the 2nd quarter. He then got his 4th foul at the 9:09 mark in the 3rd quarter. The game then blew out further limiting Adams’ minutes. He only played 18 mins so he will be fresh for this back-to-back vs the Warriors. It is also a short trip from Portland to San Francisco. Looking at Adams’ previous games, he has played 27-34 mins. He only did not close the game vs the Clippers. There is a possibility he gets subbed out late in the 4th so the Warriors cannot target him in the Stephen Curry pick and roll. However, he was not subbed out when having to defend Collin Sexton, Darius Garland, Russell Westbrook, and LeBron James. The counter there would be that both the Cavaliers and Lakers have big frontcourt units. The Warriors most definitely do not.
People will fade Adams because he disappointed the night before. The field has been chasing the big games but even more so fading players who had a bad game. His price is still too cheap that even if he does not eclipse 30mins, he should be able to pay that price off. Ja Morant uses the pick and roll extensively and Adams is the roll man in many of those plays. Daniel Gafford picked up a quad injury Wednesday and likely will be out on this back-to-back making Montrezl Harrell the chalk center play at $5300. Adams does not have the same ceiling as Harrell but is much bigger and stronger than Kevon Looney, whereas Harrell has to deal with Clint Capela and John Collins.
PG/SG Jordan Clarkson $5600
UTA @ HOU
This is only if Bojan Bogdanovic is ruled out. He is currently listed as questionable with an illness. The Jazz should be able to handle this game without him so there is no need to play him. Last year with Bogdanovic off the floor, Clarkson received a 2.1% boost to his usage rate. That is a 31.6% usage at 1.14FPM. He does not do a whole lot else than score the ball but he chucks it when he is out there. The sixth-man has not shot it well from beyond the arc this season going 7-27. Similar to Fred VanVleet, shooting numbers will positively regress for those who have started cold. The Rockets cannot stop anyone. With a great matchup combined with the increased shots, the puzzle pieces fit together for Clarkson tonight.
This game is at 8pm ET, one hour after lock. If we do not get the Bogdanovic news beforehand, Clarkson will be lower owned than he should be. In the event that this game does turn into a blowout, Clarkson will pick up a few additional mins. He will not get all of the 4th quarter run because he is too talented for that. However, coaches tend to let their bench play a bit more in the 4th quarter of lopsided games, not going back to the starters until the reserves come in. Quin Snyder adheres to that philosophy as Clarkson played all but the last 1:34 of the 4th quarter in their blowout win vs Oklahoma City on 10/20.
PF Keldon Johnson $5400
SAS @ DAL
Another player who stands to benefit from injuries on this slate is Keldon Johnson. Doug McDermott has already been ruled out for the next few games. Due to the stellar play of both Lonnie Walker IV and Devin Vassell, Johnson did not close the last game vs the Lakers. Johnson is more likely than not to close Spurs games. Walker and Vassell will not be playing at that level every game. Johnson should benefit from the absence of McDermott as there will be more shots available. Keita Bates-Diop could start for McDermott. He is a defender so there would be lots of shots that open up. Johnson leads the team in usage at 25.8% this season averaging 0.93FPM. These rates should increase with McDermott sidelined.
The Mavericks do not have the lateral quickness and perimeter defense to stop quicker forwards. If Kristaps Porzingis misses this game, the Mavs D could improve a bit, but it is not something that will make me fade Johnson. We have seen Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby take advantage of this Mavs defense this season. With Johnson’s teammates, Dejounte Murray and Jakob Poeltl priced up due to their massive games in OT, Johnson is one of the few affordable options from the Spurs side. Game log watchers fade the players who burned them last time. The same should be true as Johnson was a popular option last game vs the Lakers. If I had to guess, Johnson gets the crunch time run and Walker is the odd man out as Vassell or Diop would be needed to guard Luka Doncic.
PG Killian Hayes $4000
DET @PHI
To put it bluntly, Hayes has been a disappointment since being drafted. He has battled through injuries and is only 20 years old. It feels gross but there are quite a few reasons as to why Hayes makes for a strong play today. Jerami Grant has an elbow infection and was unable to practice Wednesday. He missed that game and the Pistons went with Hayes, Josh Jackson, Saddiq Bey, Kelly Olynyk, and Isaiah Stewart as their starting 5. That game ended in a blowout but Hayes played 27 mins and never entered in the 4th quarter. Olynyk and Bey will have the highest usage rates for this unit but Hayes will handle the ball the most. With their #1 option gone and Frank Jackson moving to the bench, the Pistons will rely on Hayes more than usual. Josh Jackson is not a playmaker. This is a pretty significant lineup change overshadowed by Olynyk replacing Grant.
Taking Derrick Rose, Delon Wright, Jerami Grant, and Blake Griffin off the floor last season, Hayes had a 19.6% usage rate averaging 0.85FPM. The Pistons made many roster moves but removing more players would leave a very small sample size. The 76ers have not looked the best on the defensive end this season. It seems just about anybody can torch Philly right now. From Kemba Walker to Josh Giddey, every guard is having their best game of the year against them. Hayes could be in line for the same considering the circumstances surrounding his own team. $4000 for a starting PG on a 6 game slate at single-digit ownership is a great tournament play today.
Just missed the cut: Bradley Beal, DeMar DeRozan, Clint Capela, Derrick White, John Collins, Kelly Olynyk, Derrick Rose, Jae’Sean Tate
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
Get your NBA DFS season started hot right out of the gate by taking advantage of my coupon code below…
Use code: WILL for 10% Discount on VIP or Core 4 Memberships
