Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Oct 23, 2021; Portland, Oregon, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Chris Paul (3) dribbles the ball as Portland Trail Blazers center Jusuf Nurkic (27) defends during the first quarter of the game at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports
PG/SG Fred VanVleet $7800
TOR vs IND
VanVleet will not be single-digit owned but he should not be too high because OG Anunoby is the top play on the Raptors. There is always hesitancy in the DFS community to roster the 2 top dogs from the same team. Guard is always a stacked position while fewer forwards stand out. With Anunoby at $6500, in this fantastic matchup, he will be the higher owned of the 2. There is no question he is a core play. Factoring in ownership, why not pivot to his teammate in the same exact game environment? VanVleet is not going to get 17 assists every game. However, he has not had a big scoring game yet. We know it is coming. He will not shoot poorly forever. Always get there before the field does.
Taking Kyle Lowry, Norman Powell, and Pascal Siakam off the floor, FVV had a 34.1% usage rate averaging 1.15FPM. Though the production is not at the same level, that usage rate is higher or close to fantasy studs such as Giannis Antetokounmpo, Stephen Curry, and Luka Doncic. For the way that VanVleet is shooting the ball right now, his DK pts output has been solid. When he puts it all together, he is going for 60+ and breaking the slate. It very well could be today against this fast-paced Pacers team. Myles Turner is not enough to slow the Raptors down. Plus, he has significant foul trouble risk and has not closed the last 2 games. FVV will be able to get his on the perimeter.
PG Chris Paul $7600
PHX vs SAC
I could write about Devin Booker but CP3 is the better FPM player and he is cheaper. Cameron Payne has been ruled out for the next few games. This might seem minor, but when Payne missed games last year, one of Chris Paul or Devin Booker was always on the court. Elfrid Payton is back on the Suns so it is a bit different of a situation this season. In the Suns last game, they only played 3 key minutes without the 2 star guards. The game turned into a blowout so Payton got the extended run. Without Payne, the Suns have to rely more on CP3 and Booker. That will lead to more usage and assists. On top of that, the Suns are playing the Kings. Sacramento games are always a track meet and they play not a lick of defense.
Chris Paul sits at a 22.8% usage rate averaging 1.22FPM with Payne out. Booker has a 32.3% usage rate but averages 1.1FPM. Booker takes a lot more shots while CP3 rebounds extremely well for his size so the FPM favors Paul. This game has a 226 point total with an 8 point spread in favor of the Suns. Even if it gets out of hand late, CP3 should have already put in the work. The Payne injury will go overlooked and will be buried even more as more injury news comes out before lock for this huge slate. Paul is rarely a popular DFS play and that does not look like it will change tonight.
PF/C John Collins $6300
ATL @ NOP
John Collins should NOT be $6300. In the first 3 Hawks games, Collins has been in a blowout vs Dallas and then gotten into foul trouble vs Clevland and Detroit. Yet, he has put up 40.75, 25.5, and 38.25 DKpts in limited time in these games. These performances came in 30, 27, and 24 minutes played. Collins is not this foul-prone. This matchup vs New Orleans should not be tough. Clint Capela will have to battle with Jonas Valanciunas. Collins on the other hand will be able to bully Brandon Ingram, Herbert Jones, and whoever else the Pelicans put on him. The Pelicans have not looked the best with Zion Williamson out. They were able to beat the Wolves last game. With this one being played in New Orleans, hopefully, this will not be a blowout.
Danilo Gallinari has yet to make his season debut. He is dealing with a shoulder injury and is listed as questionable for this game. If he returns, Collins is still in play because he is too cheap. It might knock him from my core, but I would still have exposure to Collins. Typically prices drop because a player has returned less than 5x value. Collins is still putting up great numbers so it is puzzling as to what DraftKings is doing. He might end up between 15-23% owned but I am putting him here because he should be higher than that. I might be overshooting that number because Collins is only a target for when he starts at center. With Capela healthy, Collins might be lower owned than he should be.
SG/SF Malik Beasley $4400
MIN @ MIL
Even though there are 10 games, the wing position is weak aside from the likely chalky Khris Middleton and Anunoby. This is a 1% owned play on a big slate. There is no need to go to Beasley for small field GPPs. This play is targeting the Bucks funnel defense. Even though the stats do not reflect it right now with Milwaukee 15th in the league in opponent 3pt attempts, they have not been in any overtime games. The Bucks have been in 2 blowouts. Expect them to be top 5 in allowed 3s this season as the days go by. Beasley shot 40% from 3 last season on nearly 9 attempts per game. The puzzle pieces fit together and he will not be anyone’s radar.
Beasley closed the last game ahead of Josh Okogie. He played 29 mins which would be great if he were to get that amount of playing time again. Beasley had a 24.4% usage rate averaging 0.96FPM. He lacks in the peripherals but that FPM rate is solid for a $4400 player. The Wolves tend to favor their offense in late-game situations which allows Beasley to be on the court alongside D’Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards, and Karl-Anthony Towns. With the Bucks still without Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez, their defense will not be the same. The Bucks play at one of the fastest paces in the league. This should be a high-scoring game so getting a piece of it makes sense.
Just missed the cut: Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Richaun Holmes, Myles Turner, Anfernee Simons, Elfrid Payton
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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