Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Oct 12, 2021; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (6) during the game against the Golden State Warriors at Staples Center. The Warriors won 111-99. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports
SF/PF LeBron James $9100
LAL vs MEM
LeBron James is generally never a popular fantasy play because he is always priced close to better fantasy players such as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Doncic. Today, those players are not on the slate. This is a small 5 game slate so James is very much in play. He should not be popular because as of now, Russell Westbrook and Anthony Davis are all playing. For teams that have multiple stars, those players do not garner high ownership unless someone is out. There is Stephen Curry as the highest-priced player in a fantastic matchup at 11k. Jaylen Brown and Joel Embiid both are listed as questionable. If they both were to miss their games, their teammates, Jayson Tatum and Tobias Harris would be the chalk plays. Both of them are only forward eligible. This will naturally lower LeBron’s ownership.
James’ usage is never in question. To put away the concerns of adding another star to the team, James had a 32.2% usage rate on opening night, a game in which Russell Westbrook was awful and only had a 19.3% usage rate. In the next game vs Phoenix, Westbrook came close to a triple-double and had a 27.2% usage rate. James still led the team in usage at 28.3%. This matchup vs Memphis seems like the spot where the 19-year veteran gets his team in the win column. The Grizzlies are coming off of a win vs the Clippers. Though there is no travel involved, this is still a back-to-back for the Grizzlies. There is already a lot of media attention surrounding the Lakers after their loss vs the Suns. It should be time for James to crush in this matchup and outperform that price tag.
PG/SG Jordan Poole $5700
GSW @ SAC
Poole was mega chalk on opening night due to his cheap price tag on all sites. He is now coming off of a game in which he shot 4-14, 1-6 from 3, with 7 turnovers. Despite his poor performance, he had an elite usage rate of 35.2%. With the increase in price along with that previous stat line, Poole’s ownership should be much lower. He actually led the Warriors in usage vs the Lakers at 31.8%. His mins are being staggered with Curry. Poole has played 10-12 mins in the first 2 games without Curry alongside him. These stretches are where Poole can dominate the ball. Hence, his high usage rate. This will continue to be the case until Klay Thompson comes back from injury.
The Warriors want to play with pace. This matchup against the Kings is to their liking. With a 231 total, there will be more opportunities than usual for Poole to rack up fantasy points. He is more than just a shooter right now. The offense is being run through him for those mins Curry is getting a breather. Poole is a streaky shooter, but that is what you can target for tournaments. When he is on, he can put up 20+ real points. A fast-paced game will boost his peripherals especially with the Warriors lacking an inside presence, With no James Wiseman, there are more rebounds to grab for everyone. Andre Iguodala is currently questionable which if he were to miss this game, Poole could play around 30 mins since Iguodala has closed the first 2 games.
C Mitchell Robinson $5300
NYK vs ORL
This is contingent on whether Taj Gibson plays. If Gibson is in, Robinson is still in play because of his price, but I would rather go up to Richaun Holmes. If Gibson is out though, Robinson would be in store for a lot of minutes at center. Jericho Sims is not someone who Tom Thibodeau trusts. Thibs has gone to staggering Robinson and Julius Randle’s mins and giving Obi Toppin more playing time. The Knicks are coming off of a 25 point victory vs this Magic team. With a 215 total and being 12 point favorites, some may be scared off of Knicks players. In the event this game does stay close, Robinson would play well over 30 mins if Nerlens Noel and Gibson both were to be ruled out. Thibs loves to run his starters into the ground. He played Robinson 5 mins in the 4th last game. When Robinson subbed out, Thibs put Randle in for 2 mins.
Last season, Robinson averaged 0.88FPM with Noel and Gibson off the floor. That number goes up to 0.94 if Elfrid Payton and Dennis Smith Jr are taken off the court as well but I kept them on since Robinson’s game is not altered significantly by their play. At $5300, he is too cheap for this matchup vs Orlando. The Magic start 2 centers in Wendell Carter Jr. and Mo Bamba, but both are not particularly threatening at this stage in their careers. There will be a lot of missed shots despite the slow pace because the Magic are not a good team right now. Robinson should have ample rebounding chances in this one. He should also contribute in the blocks category, something he was shut out in, in the last matchup.
SF/PF Otto Porter Jr $3900
GSW @ SAC
The value on this slate is rough. De’Anthony Melton and Desmond Bane should be chalk because they are still too cheap at $4200. Porter’s role so far has been smaller than expected. Playing only 12 and 18 minutes in close games is not what we are looking for. He has only shot the ball 3 times in each game. The shot attempts and steals all should increase because he is too talented to be putting up those type of stats. If Iguodala misses, this would also boost Porter’s chances of closing the game. Damion Lee is no lock to get the crunch time mins every game so both Poole and Porter could end up playing more mins.
A fast-paced game leads to more shots for both teams. Whether the shots make or not, fantasy points will be put up at the very least by more rebounds. The game could be a bit sloppy which would lead to more turnovers and steals. Holmes is a bit foul-prone so in the event that he does get into foul trouble or fouls out, the Kings go small and play Harrison Barnes at center. The Kings used Barnes vs Rudy Gobert last game. With the Warriors lacking an inside threat, it should be easy for this game to go small. If Porter is able to close this game, he has 30+ point upside. He will be single-digit owned after a dud on opening night. Nothing below 4k looks great right now. Porter looks the best because there is at least a path and proven track record for him to put up an upside game.
Just missed the cut: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Richaun Holmes, RJ Barrett, Davion Mitchell
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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