Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Oct 10, 2021; Orlando, Florida, USA; Orlando Magic center Wendell Carter Jr. (34) guards San Antonio Spurs center Jakob Poeltl (25) during the second quarter at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports
SF Jimmy Butler $8500
MIA @ IND
Kyle Lowry is currently questionable for this game with a left ankle sprain. I think he sits this one out because he is 35 years old, it is early in the season, and this should be a game the Heat can win without him. Since Lowry has only played 1 game with the Heat, we do not have a large enough sample size to see the impact of this injury. However, it should be massive as the Heat do not have another capable point guard. Tyler Herro is basically the ball-handler off the bench. He would be a terrific play but chalky. Butler and Bam Adebayo should both take on more on-ball duties. This would boost Butler’s assist % and give him more shots. The Heat play at a slow pace so this would be a pace-up spot for them.
In their first game of the season, the Heat blew out the Bucks by 42 points. Butler played 29 mins and did not even step back onto the court in the 4th quarter. The Pacers have the talent to keep every game close. Though this is a back-to-back for the Pacers, the Heat will possibly be without Lowry for this game, and this one is being played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, all are positive signs for Butler to log his regular mins. Butler contributes in all facets of the stat sheet and would be set up well if Lowry were to miss this game. In the event Lowry plays, I would go with someone else.
SF Khris Middleton $7400
MIL @ SAS
Our first returning player to this article is Khris Middleton. Even though Jrue Holiday is listed as probable for this game, he ended up missing the last game with the same injury designation. In that game, Middleton had a team-high 33.7% usage rate (yes higher than Giannis). He shot 4-14 from the field and 1-6 on 3s. That was a back-to-back after receiving their championship rings the night prior to this game. Now rested, Middleton and Giannis should both have strong games if Holiday were to be out. It is no secret that Giannis will be around 40% owned. That is why going to Middleton and using those savings to pay up for someone like Luka Doncic is a strong tournament move on this slate.
Middleton has had 8 assist opportunities and 7.5 rebounding chances through 2 games this season. Brook Lopez is already confirmed out. The Bucks will need Middleton to crash the glass with Bobby Portis out too. If Holiday were to miss, then Middleton gets a boost in another category. The Spurs should be tired on the 2nd leg of a back-to-back. Anytime one of the main Bucks players is out, the other 2 are always in play. Monitor the ownership on Middleton but Giannis will for sure be much higher owned than him.
PF Jerami Grant $6700
DET @ CHI
This is pretty much the same Detroit Pistons team as last season. One key addition, Kelly Olynyk is running with the 2nd unit. Dwane Casey runs his 2nd unit together so there is no staggering in mins. With Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin off the court last year, Grant had a 30.2% usage rate averaging 1.06FPM. In the first game of the season vs the same Bulls team, he had a 30.8% usage rate, which is right on par as last season. Maybe Cade Cunningham changes that but he has yet to make his debut. Though he is not an elite FPM player, getting someone with a usage rate over 30% at $6700 is difficult to find.
In Grant’s first game of the year, he shot 8-20 resulting in 24pts to go along with 6rebs and 2asts. He had 13 rebounding chances that game so that rebounding total could go up especially since the Pistons are playing the Bulls again. This is a back-to-back for the Bulls, who blew the Pelicans out, but the starters still played 30+ mins with the exception of Patrick Williams. It could possibly be a letdown game for Chicago tonight. The Pistons were able to keep their last meeting close. They will have the rest advantage in this one. If Grant has a good game, the score should stay close. Pistons and Grant are never in the spotlight. His ownership should be in the single digits.
C Jakob Poeltl $4900
SAS vs MIL
For all the reasons mentioned in the Middleton section of this article, it applies to Poeltl as well. Poeltl is one of the better rebounders and rim protectors in the game. By taking Lopez and Portis out of the equation, Poeltl should have an easier time on the glass in this one. He was in foul trouble for Friday’s game so he only played 26 mins despite it being a close game. Anytime Giannis is on the other side, teams use a rim protector to try to contain him. Poeltl is the Spurs’ best option for this. There are certainly foul trouble concerns as he did pick up 2 fouls within 4 mins vs Nikola Jokic. If he is able to stay on the floor, he should exceed 30 mins in this one.
Poeltl is not a high-usage player but is a good FPM guy. He had a 15% usage rate averaging 1.08FPM with DeMar DeRozan, Rudy Gay, and LaMarcus Aldridge off the floor. Using the 1.08FPM, if Poeltl were to get 30 mins, he would be at 32.4 DKpts. That would be over 6x and there is potential for more given that this matchup is softer than it appears. With another value option in Steven Adams at $4600, the field could prefer to go to him over Poeltl. There are several strong midrange centers with Bam Adebayo, Jusuf Nurkic, Jonas Valanciunas, and DeAndre Ayton. Poeltl has shown massive upside in the past and he should be low-owned on this 7 game slate.
Just missed the cut: Luka Doncic, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Marcus Morris, De’Anthony Melton
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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