What’s up guys it is your boy @LowOwnedWR here to break down the chalkiest NFL plays at each position for DK and see if they are worth everything you are paying for them. Cash games are all about finding value and squeezing every last drop out of the salary you are using. Cash is also about understanding what you are building for, our goal here is to be better than 50% of the field minimum, we are not trying to win GPPs here.
When that is understood it makes building your LU easier because you begin to understand that you are trying to make sure your DFS build is based around value and pricing and not upside and stacks, you are going to let other players make the mistake of being cute and severely crippling their LU and over the course of the season you are going to be up $$$ from letting others hurt themselves and putting yourself in positions to succeed. Having good projections is a BIG boost as well.
SPEAKING OF GOOD NFL PROJECTIONS:
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QBs:
Lamar Jackson ($7400): Well, Lamar did not work out last week like we intended, but even so I feel comfortable going back to him this week. He is the 2nd highest PP$ QB on the slate and with rushing ability anything is possible on any given week, all it is going to take is one more blow up game and I think Lamar gets catapulted past $8000. The Bengals have the weapons to make this a game and even though the defense stood up last week, they are still banged up, so I think we can get a beneficial game script out of this one. SMASH
Matthew Stafford ($7100): Stafford has hit over 3x in every game but one this year and would be talked about more if not for his lack of rushing upside. The Rams are implied the most points on the slate and their offense is good yet their QB is not priced like it, so he seems like value to me. Cash QB this week should be Lamar or Stafford no questions asked. SMASH
Patrick Mahomes ($8400): There is no reason to not like Mahomes this week as the Chiefs boast the 2nd highest implied points on the slate, the issue is Lamar only projects for 1 less fantasy point and is $1000 less and Stafford has a better FPP$ and is $1300 less.
Pivots: None
RBs:
Oct 26, 2020; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams running back Darrell Henderson (27) carries the ball as Chicago Bears defensive end Roy Robertson-Harris (95) makes the tackle during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Darrell Henderson ($6600): The game script is very beneficial for him as the Rams should not be forced to air it out this week as 16 points favorites against the Lions. He has proven that he is without a doubt the bell cow of this offense, of which you can argue is the best in the league. Henderson projects great and should be the highest own RB in H2Hs and Double Ups so there is zero reason to be fading him this week. SMASH
Leonard Fournette ($6400): Fournette has shown to be the runaway favorite in this backfield this year and is getting great rushing and passing volume. The Buccaneers have the 3rd highest implied total on the slate and a RB1 on a team that boasts that at only $6400 is a great bargain. There are plenty of solid RB plays in this price range on the slate but making the argument for Fournette in your LU this week is valid. SMASH
Chuba Hubbard ($6100): Carolina had a floor game last week, they looked downright awful on every drive. Hubbard did manage to turn in another 20+ touch game and 13.5 fantasy points in that game though. So if the offense can take a step forward against a measly Giants team, I assume he is coming out with more than 13.5 fantasy points this game. As mentioned you have a fair amount of good options in the price range at RB on this slate but Hubbard is another fine one to load into the LU. SMASH
Pivots: There is no reason to believe that Darrell Williams is not the #1 RB on this Chiefs offense. He got 20+ touches last week and looked good in doing so and now the Chiefs are implied the second most points on the slate and he is only $5800. Miles Sanders is only $5100 and has looked to reestablished himself as the #1 in the Eagles backfield, he is a good option to help pay up at other positions. The Rams are 16 point favorites so this looks to be another DeAndre Swift game as this projected game script is as good as it gets for his fantasy usage.
WRs:
Davante Adams ($8900): You should only have enough money to pay up for 1 stud WR this week and it seems pretty clear it is either Adams or Kupp. With Kupp being $500 less and the Rams being projected to score almost a TD more than the Packers, I am going back to the Cooper bucket yet again this week. PASS
Cooper Kupp ($8400): 6 games this season for Cooper Kupp and 6 games with over 10 targets, this man is a machine. He and the scheme manage to keep him open almost every play and the Rams are projected the most points on the slate. Kupp is also the #1 WR this week in PP$ so no reason to try to get cute and not play him this week. SMASH
Tyreek Hill ($8600): Hill is a tremendous play this week but with him projecting a good bit lower than Adams and Kupp he should also be lower owned as well and there is no reason to be losing projected points and ownership while playing cash. PASS
Pivots: Calvin Ridley has not seen less than 10 targets a game the last 3 games he suited up for the Falcons and any WR with that volume, and especially with the pedigree of Ridley should be that cheap in price. Rashod Bateman burst on to the scene last week with 6 targets in his first career NFL game, the Ravens should have to pass more than last week and with no Watkins again this #2 WR role could hold up for Bateman, who at $3400 is tremendous salary relief to your roster. Sterling Shepard has a good path to double digit targets again with Golladay and Tooney out, he just needs to suit up for the game, monitor his status as it gets closer to lock. With no Gronkowski or Antonio Brown I love the price of Chris Godwin this week at only $5900 and him being in line for more volume.
TEs:
Mark Andrews ($6000): Andrews is not even in the top 5 FPP$ TEs this week and the builds aren’t really allowing you to go $6000 at TE this week. PASS
Travis Kelce ($7600): Kelce projects well from the FPP$ standpoint but getting up to a $7600 TE this week while getting in one of the those very high owned and high projected WRs really is not possible without sacrificing more than you should. You should never be willingly sacrificing ownership and projection for 1 player. PASS
Darren Waller ($6700): Since Week 1, Waller has come nowhere close to touching 2x, there is no reason to pay $6700 for the shaky production that he is bringing to your line up. PASS
Pivots: With the WFT still down Logan Thomas and no real WR threats outside of McLaurin I do not mind going back to Ricky Seals-Jones for the third consecutive week at his nice price of $3700. Cameron Brate and OJ Howard should remain relevant with no Gronk and the Buccaneers are implied 30 this week, so hoping one of them get into the endzone as your punt play is not a terrible move. Cole Kmet gets enough volume to be relevant and is great relief at only $3000 and no Jimmy Graham should be good for his snap count.
Defense:
Cardinals ($3100): This price is too cheap for a good a team with a good pass rush going up against the Texans. SMASH
Patriots ($3400): I never want to spend more than I have to on a defense and I think the Cardinals are great at $3100 so there is no need to pay up anymore than that in cash. PASS
Packers ($3300): I like the Cardinals more and they are cheaper. PASS
Pivots: Washington Football Team at only $2200 can open up a lot for your line up and have scored at least 5 points in the last 3 games.
Follow me on Twitter @LowOwnedWR with any questions! As always, run hot, Space Cowboy!
