What’s up guys it is your boy @LowOwnedWR here to break down the chalkiest NFL plays at each position for DK and see if they are worth everything you are paying for them. Cash games are all about finding value and squeezing every last drop out of the salary you are using. Cash is also about understanding what you are building for, our goal here is to be better than 50% of the field minimum, we are not trying to win GPPs here.
When that is understood it makes building your LU easier because you begin to understand that you are trying to make sure your DFS build is based around value and pricing and not upside and stacks, you are going to let other players make the mistake of being cute and severely crippling their LU and over the course of the season you are going to be up $$$ from letting others hurt themselves and putting yourself in positions to succeed. Having good projections is a BIG boost as well.
SPEAKING OF GOOD NFL PROJECTIONS:
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QBs:
Nov 17, 2019; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson ($7400): This is the cheapest Lamar has been all year and he is coming off of a game that made you remember that he is a former MVP and not just some guy who can barely throw and run fast. He is 2nd (by a hair) in our projections FPP$ (Fantasy Point Per Dollar) and being that high as QB usually means you are very cheap, so the fact that he is almost 1st place while being $7400 is quite a feat. It is hard to imagine with the Ravens Ds fall from grace this year that Lamar should not be going toe to toe with Herbert this game, resulting is a fantasy gold mine. Fade Lamar at your own risk this week. SMASH
Patrick Mahomes ($8300): I think Mahomes goes out there this week and balls out against Washington Football Team defense that does not look close to the form from last year. The issue is Lamar is almost $1000 cheaper and is just barely projecting more raw fantasy points than Patty, so there is no need to pay $900 more for less points. PASS
Taylor Heinicke ($5800): Heinicke should see a very favorable game script against the Chiefs this week but with the value we have at RB this week there is no need to be paying down at QB on this slate. I think Heinicke is in a great spot too but if you end up on him I do feel as though the rest of your build may be out of sorts. PASS
Pivots: None
RBs:
Darrell Henderson ($6000): The RBs that opened up this week are crazy, we have 5 inexpensive guys that are all offering tremendous value for their salary, and Henderson is one of those guys. The Rams are projecting for the 2nd most points on the slate and are an 8 point favorite, Michel has been eating into the work more than we would like but Henderson is the clear cut better player to me and at only $6000 you can live with him not getting all the carries. The Giants are also horrendous. SMASH
Austin Ekeler ($7900): As mentioned we have 5 guys who are projecting amazing who are all less than $6500, there is no reason to have to consider going up to Ekeler this week when that fact is taken into consideration. PASS
DeAndre Swift ($6300): The Bengals are -3.5 favorites and anytime the Lions are down that bodes well for Swift. Cephus found his way to the IR and TJ Hockenson is battling a knee injury, so Detroit should be needing Swifts pass catching skill set this week for more reasons than just the game script. At only $6300 and DK having PP scoring, Swift will be hard pressed to not have scored at least 13 fantasy points this week. SMASH
Pivots: With no CMC again this week that bolts Chubba Hubbard into highly viable territory after getting 30 total touches between targets and rushes last week. We have seen RBs come in and just get the CMC role and not look back, so I am looking for Hubbard to make an impression in what looks to be his final week in this role. Kareem Hunt is an auto lock with no Nick Chubb this week, play him and do not think twice about it in your H2Hs and 50/50s. Khalil Herbert is the last man standing in the Bears backfield and is a mere $4600, he is locked into a minimum of 15 touches this week and projecting well over 3x because of it. Darrel Williams should see 10-15 touches this week and the Chiefs are implied the most points on the slate, at only $4900 he is worth the consideration because he has a ceiling that Herbert for does not have, but his floor could be shaky.
WRs:
Davante Adams ($9000): In cash this week, Adams is priced where he should be. You do have the ability to use the value RBs to get up to him with relative ease, but I think with how much you have to pay for him you are better going down from him and having two good WRs instead of using a middle tier one to help you pay for Adams. PASS
Amari Cooper ($6000): DraftKings is getting a kick out of making us consider Cooper every week at this price in cash I swear. The Cowboys have been bet up 2 points since open this week and while Cooper has been banged up and not getting the massive volume we want from him, he absolutely has the ability to produce at $6000. SMASH
Terry McLaurin ($7100): As long as Terry is able to suit up this week he is in the game script of a life time against a shaky Chiefs secondary, he is also averaging over 11 targets a game over the last 4 weeks. If the RBs you play allow you to get him with relative ease this week who am I to tell you no? SMASH
Pivots: You will have salary to pay up for WRs this week if you do everything correctly in my opinion and compared to the other 2 bonafide stud WRs on this slate Cooper Kupp at $7900 is cheap and is well worth a look. Mecole Hardman is only $4200 and has looked to be more involved in the Chiefs offense this season than in years past, Kansas City also is implied to most points on the slate so getting a piece of that while using a small amount of salary is nice. The Ravens/Chargers game has all the makings of a shootout and Keenan Allen at $6400 is a great mini stack with your Lamar this week. Mike Williams has been stealing the ceiling games from Keenan but that is why he is $8100 and Allen is not, with the work Allen gets the big fantasy points are due to come his way.
TEs:
Mark Andrews ($5200): I will lead off with if the slate was not out prior to the Monday game, this would not be Mark Andrews price, so he is without a doubt cheap here and is in what looks to be a good game. Issue is that there is another chalk man on this list who is in a prime game script spot and is basically min price, love Andrews this week but for what I feel like it takes to get you to the best build, he is not a part of it. PASS
Travis Kelce ($7000): This is an amazing price to get Kelce at and if you feel like you want the cheaper WRs to help you get up to him by all means do it, but I do feel like it is going to result in you getting off better plays and that is not what we want to do in cash. PASS
Ricky Seals-Jones ($3000): We are going back to the Seals-Jones play once again this week. He racked up a whopping 9 targets in Logan Thomas’s absence last week. With Sims and Samuels out as well as Thomas, it is hard to find to think that Seals-Jones is not in for a big role this week in a game where his team should be down by plenty. SMASH
Pivots: None
Defense:
Colts ($3500): We do not pay $3500 for a D in cash. PASS
Browns ($2600): With Kyler shoulder banged up and the Browns boasting an impressive defense, I do not hate them at $2600, but with 2 other defenses being near min price, I am not looking to spend $600 over it. PASS
Chiefs ($2800): With Washington looking to be garbage time galore I am not looking to roster the Chiefs who should be giving up a decent amount of points this week. PASS
Pivots: Pick your poison between the Lions and the Texans this week, edge to the Lions ever so slightly but do not sleep on the almost min price Texans going up against Wentz who loves to take sacks.
Follow me on Twitter @LowOwnedWR with any questions! As always, run hot, Space Cowboy!
