What’s up guys it is your boy @LowOwnedWR here to break down the chalkiest NFL plays at each position for DK and see if they are worth everything you are paying for them. Cash games are all about finding value and squeezing every last drop out of the salary you are using. Cash is also about understanding what you are building for, our goal here is to be better than 50% of the field minimum, we are not trying to win GPPs here.
When that is understood it makes building your LU easier because you begin to understand that you are trying to make sure your DFS build is based around value and pricing and not upside and stacks, you are going to let other players make the mistake of being cute and severely crippling their LU and over the course of the season you are going to be up $$$ from letting others hurt themselves and putting yourself in positions to succeed. Having good projections is a BIG boost as well.
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QBs:
Sep 14, 2020; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) scrambles as Pittsburgh Steelers outside linebacker T.J. Watt (90) pursues during the second half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Daniel Jones ($6000): Jones has basically 4xed in every game this season but one and is in a matchup this week that should make the ball be in his hands more often than not with the Giants likely trailing most of the way. He is averaging almost 7 carries a game and is a real threat to run the ball in in the RZ. All things considered Jones is a great play this week and might just be the #1 overall QB this week for me in cash. SMASH
Dak Prescott ($6900): The Cowboys while still an amazing offense are not the Cowboys of last year where they were down all the time and constantly had to throw, this team, sadly, has shown they are much more willing to run the ball if they do not have to air it out, which if this game goes the way Vegas is saying it will, it is looking to shape up as a Zeke week. Dak is a fine play as he projects well and the projection model is a lot smarter than I am but I do worry about his upside and floor if the Cowboys start out hot and command a lead most of the game. PASS
Kyler Murray ($8000): It will be very easy this week to get the most expensive player at QB RB and WR because of the uber value on this slate but that does not mean we have to rush in to playing a QB not even in the top 10 of FPP$ this week. Kyler has looked amazing and in my book is the current league MVP but you do not have to rush into playing him this week with cheaper options on the board who project much better from a value standpoint. PASS
Pivots: Trey Lance will be intriguing to some of us but with no Kittle and the Cardinals being legit, do not rush into playing him this week.
RBs:
Derrick Henry ($9000): I was really hoping CMC would be active this week giving us a pivot off of $9000 Henry but that will not be happening. It is just too easy to get to him this week and despite being pricy he is still in the top 5 for FPP$ and with that being the case he should just be loaded into your cash LU this week, especially against the train wreck Jaguars. SMASH
James Robinson ($6000): With us already playing Henry and Carlos Hyde being back, it is taking away some of my love for JRob this week. If and in my opinion when the Jaguars are down the passing work seems to be his, and with Chark gone I can see him getting a little more of those vacant targets, but I do w
orry about his carries this week because of Hyde. All things considered however if the Jags get down and stay down he has the capabilities to almost 2x just from his passing work alone, so he is more than viable this week. SMASH
Leonard Fournette ($5200): Lock and load. The Bucs are projecting to blow the breaks off of Miami and it is hard to argue against that. Fournette is clearly the guy in this backfield these days and he is also getting a fair share of targets as well, at $5200 there is nothing besides an injury that can keep him from 2xing. SMASH
Pivots: Damien Williams is in line for all of Montgomerys work and is way too cheap at $5600. Fields adds a whole other element to this offense which should open up some space for Williams who has shown when he gets the work, he will produce with it. If Hockenson ends up missing, DeAndre Swift should be in line to get peppered with even more targets than usual while they are trailing the Vikings this week, even if Hockenson plays, Swift should still have a clear cut path to a game with 5+ targets.
WRs:
Davante Adams ($8200): Same situation as Henry, projects very well from a FPP$ standpoint and we are without a doubt going to have the salary to do it, so we do it, simple as that. SMASH
Amari Cooper ($6100): Cooper is pretty banged up right now but is expecting to suit up, but the question marks that are in the air even if he does so is too much for me when you can just go to CeeDee at $100 more, if you want to try and jam both of them this week because you love the Cowboys side of the ball and they both project well I can live with it, but if it comes down to only playing one of them you should without a doubt be going Lamb over Amari this week. PASS
CeeDee Lamb ($6200): With Amari being banged up and Lamb having a couple of down weeks, this is a prime blow up spot for CeeDee this week who is the #4 FPP$. As mentioned if the Cowboys are leading do not expect him to be getting peppered with targets late in the game but to have a lead they must first score and Lamb is a prime suspect to do that for them this week. SMASH
Pivots: Curtis Samuel is min price and if he is able to suit up this week is going to be easily hitting 2x as Washington is down a lot of pass catchers right now. Jaylen Waddle has shown to be a favorite of Brissetts and the Dolphins will most likely be playing from behind most of the game here, so the game script is on his side and he has 3xed from this price in 2/4 games this year so we know he has the capabilities of doing it. Antonio Brown looks to have a better role in this offense with no Gronk and the Bucs are boasting the 2nd highest implied team total this week, not to mention Brown is only $5200.
TEs:
Evan Engram ($3200): Sterling Shepard coming back is a slight downgrade to Engram to me this week but the Giants should be passing a lot against the Cowboys and after Shepard, Engram could be 2nd in line for the passing work out of their guys who do not line up in the backfield. The game script looking to be heavily in his favor this week helps bully him into playable territory from me this week. SMASH
Jared Cook ($3600): I would rather just pay slightly less for Engram or over $1000 less for Jones, Cook is not cash game worthy this week. PASS
Ricky Seals-Jones ($2500): With no Logan Thomas and the WFT needing receivers this week, Seals-Jones should be locked into a decent role this week and at mine price is well worth the stab. SMASH
Pivots: None
Defense:
Eagles ($2200): Only defense this week to project over 3x and is almost min price. SMASH
Jaguars ($2100): If you can play the Eagles instead I would much rather just take the chance on Philly. PASS
Raiders ($2900): It will be a cold day in hell before I am saying roster the $2900 Raiders D in cash this week. PASS
Pivots: Houston is at home and is going up against a rookie QB who is down a good chunk of his OLine and playing against a coach who should not look to be running up the score, not to mention how bad the Pats skill group is.
Follow me on Twitter @LowOwnedWR with any questions! As always, run hot, Space Cowboy!
