What’s up guys it is your boy @LowOwnedWR here to break down the chalkiest NFL plays at each position for DK and see if they are worth everything you are paying for them. Cash games are all about finding value and squeezing every last drop out of the salary you are using. Cash is also about understanding what you are building for, our goal here is to be better than 50% of the field minimum, we are not trying to win GPPs here.
When that is understood it makes building your LU easier because you begin to understand that you are trying to make sure your DFS build is based around value and pricing and not upside and stacks, you are going to let other players make the mistake of being cute and severely crippling their LU and over the course of the season you are going to be up $$$ from letting others hurt themselves and putting yourself in positions to succeed. Having good projections is a BIG boost as well.
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QBs:
Josh Allen ($8000): Allen, outside of garbage time beneficiaries Big Ben and Jacoby Brissett, leads the slate in passing attempts per game and the Bills boast the highest total this week. Josh Allen is game script proof and should be absolutely dunk on the Texans with Davis Mills not being able to sustain drives and just giving the ball back to Allen, no one has a better floor than Allen to me at QB this week. SMASH
Dak Prescott ($6700): Without a doubt the best value option this week at QB, the game total is good and Dallas is home and Jaycee Horn broke his foot and Carolina has a good front seven so I am expecting Dallas to be attacking through the air this week. Amari Cooper is also a cash game lock so being gifted a cheap stack with great upside is a great problem to have on any given Sunday, so the slate is basically begging you to play Dak this week is my point. I have no problem going up to get Allen if you can but in cash this week Allen and Dak are really the only options I would be considering. SMASH
Patrick Mahomes ($8100): I love Mahomes in GPPs this week because I think Allen will be stealing a lot of his ownership, especially in the single entries, but for fair reason as Allen will be out there throwing the ball no matter the game environment and has better rushing upside than Patty does as well. PASS
Pivots: None
RBs:
Derrick Henry ($8800): With other value RBs on the slate and a good bit of WRs who are cheap for their floor/upside (get into that later) this is not a hard week to get Derrick Henry in your LU, and I think you should. The Titans are missing Julio and AJ Brown, so Henry is in line to get even more work than normal, the issue is can the Jets stack the box and contain him since they will focus on him but the sheer amount of touches he is going to see this week should help offset that fact. We know Derrick Henry is the big play king and he potentially could have 30+ shots at breaking 1 big one off this week, he has also seen more receiving work this year which is also encouraging for his floor. All signs are pointing to go for King Henry this week. SMASH
David Montgomery ($5800): We do not even know who the Bears are starting at QB this week until game time, this team is at the bottom of the barrel right now and justifying playing Montgomery when there are other great options in his price range who are on way better teams is just bad process to me. He is the lead back going up against the lowly Lions but you could argue the Bears are just as lowly, so for that reason, I am out. PASS
Najee Harris ($6400): Everyone is excited about the feeling of playing a back with as many potential targets as Harris could get but the issue is Diontae and JuJu are going to hopefully both be playing the full game this week which is going to hurt his pass game upside. The Steelers have the worst OLine in the league and with how Ben is playing, one of the worst QBs. I do not want any part of this offense in my cash game LU this week. PASS
Pivots: I am absolutely sold on the Panthers are the best place for fantasy production for RBs and Chubba Hubbard is coming in at only $5900 against the Cowboys lack luster defense, he has risen to almost project 3x when he started the week much lower, so the models are learning to love him as well. Darrell Henderson at only $5600 is ridiculous if he gets anywhere close to his normal workload this week, LAR vs ARZ should make for a high scoring game and with Hendos passing game work if he gets into the end zone just once I find it very hard to believe that he is not hitting value this week.
WRs:
D.J Moore ($6600): No one has a better points per dollar this week at WR than DJ Moore and for fair reason. He is the bonafide #1 option in this passing offense, especially with CMC out and the Cowboys are not exactly known for their ability to slow down opposing passing games. He is in lock and load category for cash this week with how low his price is for his volume and upside. SMASH
Cooper Kupp ($7800): Getting up to $7800 Kupp this week is going to be a tall task in cash, and he is not even in my top 2 guys in that price range at WR this week, he is finally priced accordingly to what he can do and those just are not the type of plays we are looking to jam into our cash LU. PASS
Amari Cooper ($6000): $6000 for Cooper is outrageous for how we know this Cowboys offense can operate. The last 2 weeks have no been stellar for him but that will not keep up forever and neither will this price, so take him on clearance while you can because $6000 Amari Cooper will not be the norm this year I assure you. SMASH
Dec 15, 2019; Glendale, AZ, USA; Cleveland Browns wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (13) against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Pivots: Robert Woods at only $5200 is a lock for me as it allows you to get other big name plays and Woods should see more production at some point with how well that Rams offense runs. Odell Beckham Jr. is in the most underrated game on the slate to me for scoring, and is the only real WR the Browns have to offer right now and the Vikings secondary is horrible, I am expecting him to get force fed in this one. If you can get there Stefon Diggs is beyond due to explode in this Bills offense and the matchup could not be better for it to happen this week.
TEs:
Travis Kelce ($8100): There are two stellar pay down options at TE this week and you need them to be able to get all the higher priced value guys. It is really hard to be able to make Kelce viable for your build this week in cash. PASS
George Kittle ($5900): Same logic from Kelce goes to Kittle, nice play this week but the build just is not going to allow for it to happen if you approach this slate from the cash perspective I feel like you are supposed to. PASS
Evan Engram ($3000): With Shepard and Slayton missing, I feel like it is safe to say Engram will be getting an uptick in passing work this week, at only $3000 and him potentially being the #2 target in the offense, he is a safe salary relief play. SMASH
Pivots: Will Dissly is in line for more work with Metcalf and Lockett being dinged up, I think he has a much lower chance at good volume than Engram does, but Dissly for sure has the TD upside and if all he catches this week is the TD he is still hitting over 3x this week.
Defense:
Lions ($2200): A lot of potential plays over the last 4 weeks and I have only called one auto lock which was Kyle Pitts in the season opener, the Lions are going to be my second auto lock. The Bears starting QB is a game time decision, not because of injury, but just because they are the Bears and find the need to not run their best QB out there after getting him destroyed in his first career start. I think the Bears are deflated and the Lions will have no problem hitting value this week, especially at that price. AUTO LOCK
Falcons ($2300): Auto Lock Lions
Colts ($2700): Auto Lock Lions
Pivots: Auto Lock Lions
Follow me on Twitter @LowOwnedWR with any questions! As always, run hot, Space Cowboy!
