Get your NFL DFS research started with a full game-by-game breakdown of this week’s NFL slate. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for NFL DFS Week 1:
Dec 6, 2020; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) against the Los Angeles Rams at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
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Los Angeles Chargers @ Washington Football Team
Vegas odds:
Total: 44.5
Line: Lac -1.0
Rundown:
We start things off with a bit of a boring game in terms of fantasy production and interest for the main slate. This one comes in with just a 44.5 implied total and even though I do think this Washington offense is going to be much improved this season, I don’t really see a ton to love here for cash games. You can make a case for a few pieces or one-offs for tournaments in guys like Antonio Gibson or if you want to get silly for the Milly stacking one of these NFL offenses. Gibson stands out to me due to how bad the Chargers were against the run last season, ending 26th in the league against opposing running backs. I also just like Gibson as a breakout candidate in general this season, but not a guy I’ll go all that heavy on in cash games or even single entry. Although I do prefer his price tag on DraftKings a bit more. If you wanted to stack up this offense I would probably do something like Fitzpatrick, Gibson, and McLaurin and run it back with Keenan Allen, but that’s about as ugly as it sounds in a game with a 44.5 implied total. I would probably prefer going the other way and stacking the Chargers with Herbert, Ekeler, and Allen then running it back with McLaurin… but again, I don’t think you need to go there in anything more than a deep GPP.
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas, Keenan Allen
GPP Note: I just don’t see the need to stack up these offenses, but I have no issue with a one-off or two.
New York Jets @ Carolina Panthers
Vegas odds:
Total: 45.0
Line: Car -5.5
Rundown:
This game gets things a bit more exciting as Sam Darnold will host his old team and their new shiny toy at QB in Zach Wilson. This implied total isn’t much higher than that first game, but I have a heck of a lot more interest in one of these sides in particular. The Darnold revenge lives strong! I really like him this season getting away from Adam Gase and actually having some NFL-level talent around him for a change. The Jets made a few moves on defense, but not enough to scare me off stacking up this new look Panthers offense. One thing in particular that stands out to me is the pressure rate that the Jets will put on Darnold… which will be minimal. He should have all the time in the pocket and if he gets in trouble, he has the best dump-off RB in the NFL game in Christian McCaffery. Something that I think gets overlooked in stacking up offenses, is people always look at a QB/WR pairing and sometimes forget about these pass-catching running backs. Darnold comes into the Domination Station as the second-best point per dollar quarterback on the DraftKings slate, and his salary allows you to throw McCaffery right into that lineup as well. He’s a bit more expensive on FanDuel but still manageable. I think starting your stacks with Darnold and McCaffery, choosing one of those WRs, and running it back with a Jets wideout is completely viable on this main slate. I don’t know that I would make a main Jets stack, but again, in those millionaire-maker contests you have to get different, so it’s not out of question, I just don’t see it yet.
5-star plays: Christian McCaffery
4-star plays: Sam Darnold, Robby Anderson, DJ Moore, Corey Davis
GPP Note: If you’re looking for an unowned game stack, you can do a lot worse than the Panthers mixed with a Jets one-off. If you really want to get crazy instead of an Anderson or Moore paired with Darnold you can even go down to Terrace Marshall Jr. as well, but that’s not for the faint of heart.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons
Vegas odds:
Total: 48.0
Line: Atl -3.5
Rundown:
The implied totals keep climbing as we continue to work our way through this slate, and this one has shootout potential between the youngster, Jalen Hurts and the vet Matt Ryan. Generally, when I’m looking to play at QB I immediately run to the NFL Research Station and check out their pass catchers, but you don’t NEED to with Jalen Hurts, you can play him naked and feel completely fine with it due to his rushing upside. Hurts looks like a great value quarterback option on both DraftKings and FanDuel and a guy I think you can make some interesting lineups around. Matt Ryan is probably a NFL guy I would get more of on DraftKings just due to his price, but he has some upside as well and has some nice WR options to pair with. Russell Gage in particular is a guy that should see a target boost this season with Julio Jones out of the picture, the only issue is, he’s priced like he should see an increase in targets. That being said, if I’m stacking up this Falcons team I think I’m just going to eat the salary and throw Calvin Ridley in there who projects to be one of the higher owned guys in this game and maybe a sprinkle of the rookie, Kyle Pitts. This is probably a game where I’m not stacking my QB with either RB, you can make a case for Miles Sanders I suppose, but the Falcons were solid on RB all season last year, and I don’t have a ton of faith in Mike Davis’s ball catching abilities. All in all, I like the upside in this game on both sides of the coin. One thing I didn’t mention is the Falcons D on DraftKings is $2k flat and is interesting against a young QB with a bad offensive line.
5-star plays: Calvin Ridley
4-star plays: Jalen Hurts, Matt Ryan, Kyle Pitts
GPP Note: Both sides have some stacking upside, if I was leaning out I would lean with the Falcons and just play Hurts naked in different lineups because of his rushing upside.
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Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans
Vegas odds:
Total: 52.0
Line: Ten -3.0
Rundown:
Now we really get to the meat of the slate with the second-highest implied total just behind the Browns and Chiefs. The cover boy MURRAYYYYYYY (for you Dan LeBatard fans out there), is quite similar to Jalen Hurts in the previous game where you can run him out there naked and feel confident due to the rushing upside, but I want some of his pass-catchers. He’s shown the ability to move the ball through the air and on the ground, so let’s maximize that upside. First off, Tennesse’s secondary is awful, so DeAndre Hopkins should do whatever he pleases and is one of my top WR options on the slate. The NFL Domination Station below agrees with me, as he comes in with a perfect 100 rating.
This is another stack where I don’t even mind throwing Chase Edmonds in as my third piece or go with one of their newer pieces in Rondale Morre or AJ Green for a little savings. Even if you want to go just Murray and Hopkins and run it back with one of those elite WR’s on Tennesse, I think it’s one of the higher upside stacks on the slate. I do prefer it to the Titans side of the ball, just because of the volatility of Derrick Henry. For some reason, he’s just not a guy that I play that much… speaking from a DraftKings perspective. He’s the type of guy to go 18 for 63 yards and then out of nowhere you check your phone and he has 20 for 120 and a TD. Whatever it is about him I can never get him right, and I say that’s on DraftKings because you don’t really get a receiving upside on him, where that doesn’t matter quite as much on FanDuel. That being said, I do like him as a one-off type of guy, he’s obviously a ridiculous talent.
5-star plays: Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, Derrick Henry
4-star plays: Ryan Tannehill, AJ Brown, Julio Jones, Anthony Firkser (if you need a punt TE)
GPP Note: Love the Cardinals side of this game ran back with either Julio or AJ Brown, this game has some slate-breaking potential.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Vegas odds:
Total: 44.5
Line: Jac -3.0
Rundown:
Welcome to the toilet bowl ladies and gentlemen…and I say that about the previous Jaguars regime as they look to turn things around with Trevor Lawrence and his new squad. The total is ugly, these two teams are ugly (for real football purposes), but I think there are some diamonds in the rough for DFS. There’s a world where you can get whacky and have some interest in this Jaguars offense. Not because I think they’re going to be clicking on all cylinders right away, but more of an attack on a terrible Texans defense. A Texans defense that was 29th against the pass and the run last season. It’s not something I’m going to do a ton of but a Trevor Lawrence stack with one of Marvin Jones, DJ Chark, or Laviska Shenault is certainly on the table. Marvin Jones is actually second on the NFL slate in point per dollar at the WR position on DraftKings according to the Domination Station, so it’s really a cheap stack if you’re looking to go super expensive at your RB position. The Texans side of things is a different story and sort of why I don’t really love the stack as a whole because I want someone to run it back with on the other side, and it’s ugly when Tyrod Taylor is leading the pack. Maybe you can make a case for Brandin Cooks, but do we really trust the ability of Tyrod to put it in his hands?
5-star plays: Marvin Jones (value WR)
4-star plays: Trevor Lawrence, James Robinson, DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault
GPP Note: There isn’t much I would play in cash games other than Marvin Jones and getting some value at the WR position, but this is a really interesting stack if you want to get silly for the Milly against a putrid Texans team.
Minnesota Vikings @ Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas odds:
Total: 48.0
Line: Min -3.5
Rundown:
If we’ve learned anything about the Vikings over the years, it’s that they can be DFS and fantasy goldmines with guys like Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, and even Stefon Diggs in years passed. Not to mention, they get a matchup with a pretty terrible Bengals defense. The only issue with stacking this team up is I don’t trust the ceiling of Kirk Cousins, at that price tag I would just rather go with guys like Hurts, Mayfield, and even Lawrence… but that’s not to say his surrounding pieces can’t still excel. Dalvin Cook might just be the top RB on the slate, and if not, he’s in that top handful where they have slate-breaking ability, love him as a one-off against this Bengals front line. Justin Jefferson took the league by storm last season and should continue to carve up NFL CB’s again here, he comes in as questionable due to a shoulder injury but most of the high-end WR’s have some sort of small injury issue. I don’t expect it to hinder him all that much, he’s a great option here, although you’re paying through the nose for him… just $100 less than DeAndre Hopkins on DraftKings and just $200 less on FanDuel. From the Bengals, I don’t know that there is a whole lot to love, you can make a case for Joe Mixon, but I think there are better options in that range. One guy I do like is Tee Higgins on DraftKings at sub $5k, he makes for a nice value WR option that can provide some nice upside and we’ve seen this Vikings secondary get shredded before.
5-star plays: Dalvin Cook
4-star plays: Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins (DraftKings), Joe Mixon
GPP Note: I probably won’t be stacking up either side here, but there are some solid one-offs all around.
Check out our “Simple Six” article as well, where we run down six glaring facts about this week’s NFL slate!
Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts
Vegas odds:
Total: 48.5
Line: Sea -2.5
Rundown:
We’ll start with the Seahawks who are interesting, but also sort of not at the same time. Yes, there is a lot of talent at the skill positions with Wilson, Carson, Lockett, and Metcalf, but this Colts defense is legit. Guys like Tyler Lockett are better for NFL GPPs anyway due to how volatile he is but I think I would just leave this whole team to GPPs and go elsewhere in cash games, it’ll be a bit too unpredictable for me to have a ton of confidence in playing these guys in cash. In fact, this whole game may be a catchup game for me as the Colts don’t really have a ton that jumps out to me either. It’s still to be seen if Carson Wentz is a competent QB which will impact that wide receiving core and the price tag on Jonathan Taylor is gross as he’s surrounded by guys like Chubb, Ekeler, and Kamara… really not a whole lot that interests me in this one. Before I write off everything in this game, I do like Michael Pittman Jr. at that $4.1k salary on DraftKings, he showed off some nice upside last season and can blow that price tag out of the water.
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf
GPP Note: Kind of a stay away game which is odd for a game with an implied total of 48.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills
Vegas odds:
Total: 48.5
Line: Buf -6.5
Rundown:
I’ll start things off with the Bills side of things because I think Josh Allen is too cheap on both sites. He has a point per dollar projection from the Domination Station of over 3 on DraftKings and just under 3 on FanDuel, which is more than good when you consider the upside he brings to the table on the ground and through the air. He proved that he and Stefon Diggs can make quite the pairing and a stack I like a lot in this spot ran back with one of those Steelers wide receivers. Speaking of the Steelers, I think I’ll do just that and stick to the wide receivers here as run-back plays or one-offs where you see fit. Chase Claypool is probably your boom or bust guy whereas Diontae Johnson will be a target monster yet again but is more of that underneath guy when Ben is in trouble. I think I’ll hold my horses on playing Najee Harris right away, I’d like to see what he can provide at the NFL level first before I dive face-first into rostering him, but don’t let me talk you off of him if you’ve honed in on him in week 1.
5-star plays: Josh Allen
4-star plays: Stefon Diggs, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Najee Harris
GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in the Bills side of things, I don’t have Gabriel Davis listed, but he’s in play if you want to throw him in there with Diggs and Allen and onslaught this Steelers team.
San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions
Vegas odds:
Total: 45.5
Line: SFO -7.5
Rundown:
This game has the highest spread on the main slate with the Niners coming in as heavy favorites over probably one of the worst teams in football in the Lions. This game feels pretty similar to that Colts game where I don’t see a ton from the jump that I really need to have. We do have some NFL TE options in this game for a first, both George Kittle and TJ Hockenson are in play, as I think Hockenson is in for his best year as a pro, we know Goff likes to find those TE’s early and often. They actually both rank inside the top four in our NFL ChalkBoard Tool for both DraftKings and FanDuel main slates.
Side note – the chalkboard is an ownership-driven spreadsheet that highlights where they expected chalk will be at each position and helps you leverage off of those pieces in tournaments to help shoot you to the top of those leaderboards when the “bad chalk” duds.
Outside of those two TEs, it’s really just Raheem Mostert for me and he’s probably a FanDuel only guy for me due to the price tag. I think he will get overlooked from the jump with Trey Sermon in town, but he’s proven to be one of the better RB’s in the league when he’s healthy.
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: TJ Hockenson, George Kittle, Raheem Mostert
GPP Note: I don’t see a whole lot that grabs my interest here outside of the one-offs that I mentioned.
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Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
Vegas odds:
Total: 43.5
Line: NEP -3.0
Rundown:
Onto the afternoon games, and we start with the new look Patriots offense with Mac Jones front and center. It’ll be interesting to see how this offense looks now that they actually have a quarterback that can throw the ball 10 yards, but I do expect some hiccups along the way. The Dolphins defense is someone I’m going to be looking at here as they look to hound the first-year QB and were really one of the better defenses in the league last season. But, you’re not here to read about defensive plays… I would assume, maybe you are, and if so… read no further! I really don’t see a whole lot in either side of the ball that makes me want to go here for DFS however, the implied total is low and I’m expecting growing pains for both offenses. If I had to go somewhere it would probably be in these RB’s, guys like James White, Damien Harris, and Myles Gaskin. Both White and Gaskin can catch the ball which is nice on DraftKings, and I think with Cam gone Harris should see a fair share of TD looks which is beneficial on both sites, but caters a bit more to FanDuel. You can probably make a case for Jaylen Waddle on DraftKings due to the upside he can bring just from his raw talent at sub $4k, but is a GPP only type of guy.
5-star plays: Dolphins D
4-star plays: Myles Gaskin, Damien Harris, James White
GPP Note: Really a pretty gross game all around, play those defenses.
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs
Vegas odds:
Total: 53.0
Line: KCC -6.0
Rundown:
We have arrived, the highest NFL implied total on the slate, and it should be a fun one. We’ll start with the Chiefs who are killing the projection system a.k.a, the Domination Station below. If we look at FanDuel, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill all have DFS ratings over 95 and are drawing some pretty decent ownership as of Tuesday night.
Don’t let that get you off of them, however. This offense is obviously elite and right there with that Murray/Hopkins stack that I was all over earlier. This Cleveland defense is not good, at least not good from last year’s numbers. Go ahead and fire up Mahomes and his pass-catchers with confidence, I don’t have as much confidence in their running game led by Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who comes into this one banged up. I think there’s more risk than there is reward there. Moving to the Cleveland side of things, another offense that is certainly stackable. They won’t grade out quite as good as the Chiefs guys, but mostly because they don’t have Mahomes behind center… sorry Browns fans. I don’t know how much I love Baker Mayfield in this spot but I do like guys like Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Odell Beckham Jr., and even Austin Hooper as run-back options to your Kansas City stacks.
5-star plays: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce
4-star plays: Nick Chubb, Odell Beckham Jr., Austin Hooper
GPP Note: The Chiefs are right up there with the Cardinals for me as a top stacking offense on the slate and has some nice run-back pieces with this Browns receiving core.
Green Bay Packers @ New Orleans Saints
Vegas odds:
Total: 49.5
Line: GBP -4.5
Rundown:
Finally, we get to the best team in football, the Green Bay Packers (no bias here… maybe just a little). I would love to victory lap about Aaron Rodgers starting week 1 for the Packers as I kind of felt was going to be the case all along, and honestly, I think he’s here again next season, but that doesn’t really matter, we’re looking to capitalize on his DFS potential here as both teams head to Jacksonville for this one. It’s really hard not to like the Rodgers and Davante Adams combo here, they were so consistent last season and brings you one of the highest floors and ceilings on the slate, I like these two as a stack and don’t even hate a guy like Marquez Valdes-Scantling as a third man. You heard it here first that he’s going to have a 1200 yard season.. but carry on. From the Saints side of things, one guy is drawing a lot of buzz in the fantasy community due to his recent performance and the boost he should see from Michael Thomas being out and having a complete gunslinger at QB in Jameis Winston, and that’s Marquez Callaway. He is the highest graded point per dollar play on the slate according to the Domination Station at $3.4k, and let me tell you why I’m going to fade him… Jaire Alexander. Opposing WR1’s against Jaire last season eclipsed 50 yards on him just once, and that was week 1 Adam Thielen who had 66 yards. It’s not like Callaway is a guy that has been a super high potential guy either. He was signed as an undrafted free agent after the 2020 draft, and because of a big camp and preseason, he’s getting a bunch of buzz. I’m here to say no thank you, he’s a guy that I’m classifying as bad chalk as he enters Wednesday with a 28% ownership projection on DraftKings. A guy I will have interest in is Alvin Kamara. He probably won’t see as many check-downs this season due to Drew Brees not being behind center, but this Green Bay team has struggled against the run in the past. Yes, they have a new DC, but facts are facts until we see otherwise.
5-star plays: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Alvin Kamara
4-star plays: Aaron Jones, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jameis Winston (value)
GPP Note: The Packers are my much-preferred side here, I would like to run the Rodgers/Adams stack back with Kamara but salary could prove to make that difficult. We’ll see how things shake out as we get closer to Sunday.
Denver Broncos @ New York Giants
Vegas odds:
Total: 42.0
Line: Den -3.0
Rundown:
We finish the slate with kind of a snoozer as we head to New York. We’ll start with the Broncos who officially named Teddy two gloves their starting quarterback, which should help their real-life team, but I’m not convinced it helps their fantasy production all that much. Bridgewater isn’t a highly volatile guy and really known for taking the safe out on most plays, yes he’s going to run the offense likely better than Lock would have, but at least Lock would chuck it down the field. One guy this change helps quite a bit will be Jerry Jeudy, who is going to feast on these underneath throws, he’s a guy I’ll have interest in early on before his price begins to climb. Other than that, you can make a case for Courtland Sutton who is too cheap considering his talent, he’s on an injury discount at the moment, he’s a better player than his price tag suggests. I will go ahead and talk about one more defense that stands out to me, and that’s Denver. Daniel Jones and the Giants are a loose cannon full of turnovers, so I think this sets up well for this Bronco’s D. Speaking of the Giants NFL offense, I don’t know that I’m ready to jump on the Saquon Barkley train just yet, he’s probably a guy that I’m just going to have to see it from first before I go too crazy on him. Similar to the Jaguars offense, I think you can get crazy in the millionaire maker and make a Jones/Barkley/Golladay stack, but it’s not something I would ever consider doing in cash games.
5-star plays: Broncos D
4-star plays: Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley
GPP Note: This game is just kind of ugly, not much I love here outside of a crazy Giants stack.
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