What’s up guys it is your boy @LowOwnedWR here to break down the chalkiest NFL plays at each position for DK and see if they are worth everything you are paying for them. Cash games are all about finding value and squeezing every last drop out of the salary you are using. Cash is also about understanding what you are building for, our goal here is to be better than 50% of the field minimum, we are not trying to win GPPs here.
When that is understood it makes building your LU easier because you begin to understand that you are trying to make sure your DFS build is based around value and pricing and not upside and stacks, you are going to let other players make the mistake of being cute and severely crippling their LU and over the course of the season you are going to be up $$$ from letting others hurt themselves and putting yourself in positions to succeed. Having good projections is a BIG boost as well.
SPEAKING OF GOOD NFL PROJECTIONS:
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QBs:
Josh Allen ($7400): With their being plenty of value on the board because of it being Week 1, we are not forced into anything, especially $7400 Josh Allen against the Steelers. That is about as tough as a defensive matchup can be and with you not even getting a good discount for the matchup being as tough as it is, this is an auto fade to me this week, not even considering it. PASS
Patrick Mahomes ($8100): The matchup is not nearly as bad as Allen’s but I would say the value Mahomes brings is worse which is hard to do. I will dive into some other potential QBs shortly but Mahomes value compared to them is very lack luster. You get a great floor and ceiling every week from #15 but having to pay a premium for it is the problem, there will be weeks where it is worth it but this week is not one of them. PASS
Joe Burrow ($5700): The whole Bengals offense is a treasure trove of value on this slate and Burrow is a shiny gold coin in that treasure box. With him you get access to all the Bengals WR value that a lot of users are going to be locking in this week which will be helpful for sticking with the field. With the value at WR this week, I do not really feel like you need to pay down at QB to help your LU, but if what you are going with requires a cheaper QB, I think Burrow is a fine option. SMASH
Pivots: As mentioned, I do not think you have to pay down at QB this week because auto locking Kyle Pitts and the WR value lets you do basically anything you want if you let it. Kyler Murray is in the 2nd highest projected total game of the slate which features two defenses that are not going to be locking everyone down, with his shoulder injury gone he should be back to rushing the ball as well as he was to start the season last year, which raises his floor exponentially. The slate is gifting you the ability to play him and I think it should be taken advantage of. Jalen Hurts gets the Falcons on the road to open the season in what should be a sloppy back a forth game, his price doesn’t factor in his rushing upside well enough yet so to me he is the best bang for your buck QB this week. Zach Wilson and the Jets are a way better team than last year and have a much better coaching staff, for only $5000 against the Panthers shaky D in a game where I feel like the total is too low, he is the best QB with the lowest salary.
RBs:
Joe Mixon ($6200): We know what Mixon can do when fully healthy and $6200 is too cheap for him being fully healthy. The Vikings were a bottom 10 run D last year and with the Bengals having 3 good WR threats, Mixon should have some room to run. Plenty of good RB options but if you end up on Joe that is the opposite of a problem. SMASH
Antonio Gibson ($5900): Without question the best value RB on the slate, the only downside to him is the matchup with the Chargers but $5900 for a guy who will likely be touching the high $6000s this year, it really does not matter. I will say you have options and could get some leverage on the field in not playing him if he 2xs or less, but I am just taking the value he is gifting me and calling it a day. SMASH
Alvin Kamara ($8600): With Latavius being gone I can see why people are going to be gravitating towards Kamara. The issue with me is they have never really shown they want this man to be ran into the ground, so someone is still going to be taking work away from him, which is nothing new, but I think people have this idea it isn’t happening. Taysom will also always be a threat to steal the RZ work which hampers Kamara’s floor and upside on a weekly basis. Long story short, in cash the only RB I am breaking the bank for is CMC since the middle tier of RBs offers a lot of value. PASS
Pivots: The slate is begging you to take the opportunity to play Christian McCaffrey and you should just take it, a year removed from him really being seen on a football field is making people forget the crazy floor he has and how much he is used on the field. You are paying a hefty price for him but this slate makes it easy to do that which is not always the case, take the blessing. The Texans are terrible and so is the Jags D, meaning James Robinson has tremendous potential regardless of how this game script goes, he should be able to pick up right where he left off last year as Etienne going down leaves the whole backfield for him. He may lack the TD upside if the Jags cannot find consistency but at only $6400 he is going to get some insane volume that is going to make it hard for him to bust at that price regardless of TDs.
WRs:
Marquez Calloway ($3400): Jamies Winston slings the ball without a care in the world, this guy is the only decent WR playing for the Saints and he is only $3400 and the whole field is going to lock him in, do not risk it and just play him, he allows you to pay up for better options elsewhere and offers you no real downside in the cash streets, he is lacking the upside of being leverage and that is his only real negative for cash this week. SMASH
Stefon Diggs ($7600): Same thing as Josh Allen, he will be worth it at some point but it is not this week with basically every $7000+ WR being in a better spot than him. PASS
Tee Higgins ($4700): Higgins is the value within the value that is the Bengals this week. He should be locked into good volume and is in a good matchup and is probably about $700-$1000 cheaper than he will be at his peak this season, there are other options but I think you play them along with Tee rather than instead of him. SMASH
Pivots: The best minimum price WR is Elijah Moore and I say that with full confidence, the only reason I am not smashing him in is because of the value at RB and then Calloway, I do not need another min price WR, but if your build could use another WR relief he is the first player you should be considering. Corey Davis is the WR1 on the Jets and with Wilson at the helm I think being the #1 WR on the Jets is actually a good thing to have going for you. I know $4900 might seem a little steep with how many good options there are at WR but he should be leading the Jets in targets this game and all season, if the Jets are even an average offense I think $4900 is way too cheap for their top option.
TEs:
Kyle Pitts ($4400): It is not too often where there is an actual auto lock in cash but Pitts in his first ever NFL game is going to fit that mold, he has been going in around the 4th round of drafts this off season which that alone should make him a $5500 player. Add playing maybe the worst team in the league in the Eagles while at home on an offense that should pass heavily and feature him while doing it, he is just the perfect storm. Gotta love them playing in a dome too! AUTO LOCK
Travis Kelce ($8300): It is Kyle Pitts week and this is not a slate where playing 2 TEs is beneficial in cash. PASS
TJ Hockenson ($4900): Kyle Pitts week. PASS
Pivots: K Y L E P I T T S
Defense:
Falcons ($2000): Paying up at defense unless the slate is just forcing you to do it is really never a great option. Hurts is turnover prone and Falcons D looked better down the stretch last year, at the cheapest a D could possibly be, I don’t hate taking a swing. SMASH
Bills ($2500): I think Matt Canada will do a better job making Pittsburgh operate the offense, but the offensive line is still terrible and Ben makes extremely questionable throws constantly, so the Bills have potential turnovers and sacks going for them. They are at home and only $2500 and they are actually a good defense, they are who I am trying to play unless salary restraints forces me down to Atlanta. SMASH
Broncos ($3300): With the value and upside of the other 2 defenses mentioned here, I just do not see the reason in paying basically $1000 more for the privilege of playing Denver. PASS
Pivots: None
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