What’s up guys it is your boy @LowOwnedWR here to break down the chalkiest NFL plays at each position for DK and see if they are worth everything you are paying for them. Cash games are all about finding value and squeezing every last drop out of the salary you are using. Cash is also about understanding what you are building for, our goal here is to be better than 50% of the field minimum, we are not trying to win GPPs here.
When that is understood it makes building your LU easier because you begin to understand that you are trying to make sure your DFS build is based around value and pricing and not upside and stacks, you are going to let other players make the mistake of being cute and severely crippling their LU and over the course of the season you are going to be up $$$ from letting others hurt themselves and putting yourself in positions to succeed. Having good projections is a BIG boost as well.
SPEAKING OF GOOD NFL PROJECTIONS:
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QBs:
Josh Allen ($7000): Allen should be good value at $7000 since all the Bills do is pass and the offense runs through him every step of the way. The issue is there are other better value QBs (we will get into that later) and he is playing against Washington who is very stout on defense, he can produce here but I feel his ceiling is limited and I am not looking to pay up in cash games for a QB going up against the Football Team. PASS
Lamar Jackson ($7800): In a dome, coming off a great week, things are pointing up for Lamar and he can very well produce the QB1 week in this matchup, the issue is you are paying the absolute full price for it and we are not supposed to be paying for all of the potential production in cash games. PASS
Matthew Stafford ($6400): The Bucs pass more than any other team in the league so baring them coming out completely flat which I severely doubt they do while having the best QB of all time surrounded by his best core of weapons ever. Stafford is going to have to pass the ball this Sunday. At $6400 I think it is alright that he does not offer you the rushing upside that I feel is needed in QBs these days since there is a good chance he is going to have to consistently pass the ball. I am expecting a very back a forth game here. SMASH
Pivots: Justin Fields ran the ball 10 times in limited action last week and now he has a full week of practice in with the first week. At $5200 there is no QB that has better value to me and his upside can really get up there since he is capable of having a 100 yard game just on the ground, while he is remaining the starter this is the cheapest I think you ever see him and I think he is almost worthy of auto locking into your cash LUs this week.
RBs:
Dalvin Cook ($8400): This really all comes down to confidence in him playing and him getting his full load if he plays, him not practicing all week is not a sign in the right direction by any means but we will know more closer to game time. Him getting his full production he is without a doubt a smash play at only $8400 against a not great Seahawks defense, no one without access to the coaching staff is going to be able to predict that right now is the problem. I would heavily monitor Cook close to lock and make my decision then, but with the risk to him you are probably better off not trying to predict this mess. PASS
Derrick Henry ($8600): There is no doubt that Henry has this next level ceiling that no one besides CMC really has, but there are 13 other RBs this week who are projecting better from a FP/$ standpoint and I am not rushing to jam the 14th best value back who is really pricy to boot into my LUs. PASS
Chris Carson ($6400): Carson really comes down to line up construction, I am not making my build for the purpose of fitting him but if he can ease into your LU after you nail down your core of players I do not have a problem with ending up on him. I think last week he got their in an ass backwards way and I think you can see more volume driven production this week and hopefully he gets to run one in from the redzone. SMASH
Sep 28, 2020; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (25) rushes during the first half against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tom
Pivots: Clyde Edwards-Helaire while being on anyones who drafted him shitlist, is price low even for his standards. I am by no means expecting him to come out smashing here but you just need to play guys who can produce value easily at their price and it doesn’t even take 50% of what we thought he was capable of doing to produce value this week. I do not think that most people saw a point in the near future that Saquon Barkley would be $6500, especially against a defense that isn’t even good, I get why he is priced there with the volume he has been getting but I do not think it will be that low forever, this seems like a great spot for him to smash that price, he in my opinion has no where to go butup from here. Mike Davis gets a ton of passing work and he can get there from that alone, if he manages to get in the endzone this week he should have absolutely no problem paying off value this week. If it was a lock that Carson Wentz was starting all week I think people would be singing a very different tune about Jonathan Taylor this week, he started the year at $8000 which was for sure too much, but he has been continually stuffed at the goal line, which is to me the sole reason why he price has fallen this far.
WRs:
Cooper Kupp ($6800): With how he is being used by the Rams I wouldn’t be surprised to see him smash through the 7k price range, highest total game on the slate and is going up against a team with a secondary who’s offense should be pushing the ball all game. Point being, Rams are going to have to pass this week and he is the #1 option and the Bucs secondary stinks. SMASH
Chris Godwin ($6100): Godwin is a great play my only gripe is that AB is out and that is good for him and Evans (who in my book should be projecting around the same) and Evans is going to go way lower owned than him despite being just as good of a play value wise to me. Lock and load Godwin by all means since Evans should not kill you if he goes off but Godwin can if you do not have him, the Bucs pass catchers still being this cheap is ridiculous. SMASH
Keenan Allen ($6600): The Cowboys game was great but there was a reality where that game could go the way it went because it did not have to be a back and forth shoot out, going up against Mahomes, I think the odds of it being that back and forth shoot out is higher. At $6600 it is hard to argue against Allen being great value because as soon as he produces his price will exceed over $7000, he is the #1 target in this offense, which is a good offense, good luck finding someone who bring to the table what he brings at that price. SMASH
Pivots: Mike Evans bring to the table almost exactly what Chris Godwin brings and is basically the same price, there is no reason for him to be projecting this bad with no Antonio Brown. Robert Woods while not having the success or floor that Kupp has, is still facing the same bad Bucs secondary as Cooper and is way cheaper, he does not have the anywhere near the floor that Kupp does right now but that is exactly why he is over $1000 cheaper. If your build brings you to needing a near min price WR, I can live with Van Jefferson but I do not think your build will need that, same logic goes for MeCole Hardman. The Colts secondary is not good and to expect AJ Brown to continue to produce on this subpar level isn’t sound logic to me, for what we all thought (and know) he can be, $6500 is too low of a price in this matchup.
TEs:
Travis Kelce ($8200): Another situation of does the build allow for it to happen. I am not rushing to build my LU around Kelce but if I have the salary left and no other spots I am really looking to move, I am all for jamming the TE who no one can touch in terms of his upside or floor on a weekly basis. SMASH
Mark Andrews ($5000): I know they gave him that big contract, but that old offense of just jamming the ball to him has not been there this year and this is not a matchup where they should be having to throw it constantly. PASS
Darren Waller ($7400): If I am paying this much for a TE I am just finding the extra $800 to get to Kelce, Waller still projecting to be chalk like this to me is solely because of Week 1. PASS
Pivots: TJ Hockenson is basically the #1 WR on the Lions and they are projecting to be playing from behind a lot this game, the matchup is not amazing but the $5200 price tag for what he has shown he is going to be in the Lions offense this week is just too low. Nothing in these first 2 weeks should make you think Kyle Pitts is anything less than what we thought he was going to be this year, he has averaged 7 targets a game this season and the Giants are a great spot for him to let the truthers finally take a victory lap on him. Jared Cook is just as good as a play as last week without price being considered and he is literally the same exact price. Tyler Higbee should also be benefitting from how pass heavy his game is and that partnered with his heavy snap share is why he projected to be the #1 value TE this week.
Defense:
Titans ($2400): You could honestly argue that Wentz playing is better for them since you know he is good for over extending plays and in return it results in him taking a lot of sacks. Regardless of who starts I think Titans D is a great upside and value play this week. SMASH
Bengals ($2100): Ben is absolutely terrible and so is the offensive line, unless they just get dunked on and this is the breakout game for Pittsburgh, I find it hard to believe they are not going to hit value this week. SMASH
Cardinals ($3000): Bengals and Titans offer basically the same thing Arizona does, you just do not have to pay up for it. PASS
Pivots: Titans and Bengals offer enough, you do not have to get crazy here.
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