What’s up guys it is your boy @LowOwnedWR here to break down the chalkiest NFL plays at each position for DK and see if they are worth everything you are paying for them. Cash games are all about finding value and squeezing every last drop out of the salary you are using. Cash is also about understanding what you are building for, our goal here is to be better than 50% of the field minimum, we are not trying to win GPPs here.
When that is understood it makes building your LU easier because you begin to understand that you are trying to make sure your DFS build is based around value and pricing and not upside and stacks, you are going to let other players make the mistake of being cute and severely crippling their LU and over the course of the season you are going to be up $$$ from letting others hurt themselves and putting yourself in positions to succeed. Having good projections is a BIG boost as well.
SPEAKING OF GOOD NFL PROJECTIONS:
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QBs:
Justin Herbert ($6700): Chargers/Cowboys projects to be the highest scoring game on the slate and Herbert is not priced for that being the case. The worry with him is that the Cowboys come out flat and he doesn’t have to air raid it out all game, but as long as Dak Prescott can continue to do Dak Prescott things that should be of no worry in this game to me. Cowboys defense is still abysmal and their offense should always be able to keep them in the game, playing against the Cowboys is a fantasy blessing for any passing attack. SMASH
Josh Allen ($7200): For Josh Allen, is this a cheap price? Yes. Does it matter this week for cash? No. Herbert and Dak offer the most upside this week and they are both almost $500 cheaper than Allen is. This is also not bringing into account that the Dolphins defense is good. PASS
Dak Prescott ($6800): What it is going to come down to this week for you is picking between Dak or Herbert, there is no way around that. My logic is, if Herbert hits, Dak is also hitting because he is what is going to make Herbert hit with him keeping the Chargers pushing the pace. Herbert could not hit and Dak still does if the Chargers pull ahead enough at any given point causing them to stop pushing the pace resulting in less opportunity for him. All signs point to Dak is what you need to take away from this. SMASH
Pivots: While I am not moving off of Dak/Herbert, you can argue that the Seahawks game is just as good for Russell Wilson as this game is for them. The only issue is you have to pay to get Russ and it costs a pretty penny to pay up for the WRs I feel we need from the DAL/LAC game. If you are willing to come down a little bit at WR, I can see the logic in playing Wilson if you are ceiling chasing with your QB.
RBs:
Najee Harris ($6300): The Ravens are really banged up, like really banged up. While Oakland did beat Baltimore I am putting zero weight on that in terms of my thinking for Oakland, they stink. Najee was the only RB who ran the ball for the Steelers last week and I have a feeling Pittsburgh is going to hone in on Waller leaving a very sub par skill group to pick up the slack against a very good defense, point being the Steelers should have a lead most if not all of this game and Harris is the only RB who should be touching the ball in a very positive game script. SMASH
Chris Carson ($6100): If this game goes the way everyone thinks it is, Carson is set up for success with a very beneficial game script, a good price and good volume. Will the Seahawks do what they say they will and let Russ continue to cook with the lead or will they go back to the ways of old and pound Carson as soon as they can is the question. Either way I think Carson offers a great floor this week, the answer to that question is more so a problem for Russ than it is Carson as he could succeed either way. SMASH
Darrel Henderson ($5700): Indy has the means to control the run a lot more so than to control the pass, so I think Henderson hitting here is tough because the matchup is not good and the best way for his coach to attack this defense is through the air and not through Darrel, the value is there though. PASS
Pivots: Javonte Williams basically got to split the touches 50/50 with Gordon last week, some people are saying it could be because of game script, new flash, if that is the case it should also be applying to this game, at $4400 he is going to let you get your WRs and very well could be the only punt on your roster. Kareem Hunt could be seeing a lot more usage than I feel like people are projecting him to get and with the Browns being 12 point favorites, Hunt can absolutely snag a goal line TD and some passes and easily pay off his price tag along with some rushes to boot.
WRs:
Cooper Kupp ($6000): The Rams should be attacking the Colts through the air here and while it is only a 1 game sample, I think over his time with the Rams, McVay has made it so he is the WR1 there. Stafford allows this offense to do a lot more than it used to with Goff and Kupp is the biggest beneficiary of that, at only $6000 and with the Colts secondary being below league average, it is very easy to see the value Kupp brings to your LU. SMASH
CeeDee Lamb ($6400): If the Cowboys offense can keep up even remotely close to their average last year before Dak went down, Lamb very well could be pushing well passed the $7000 price range in a matter of no time. The Chargers defense is good but so was Tampas and with how bad Dallas is on defense they should have to air it out all season long and Lamb is going to thrive off of that. This price is just way too low for his floor and upside he brings. SMASH
Keenan Allen ($7000): I have brought up how bad Dallas D is enough in this article already so I think you get the point. He is the #1 WR on an offense that is committing to a much more pass dominant offense than last year and the matchup could not be any better and his price does not adequately adjust for these factors. SMASH
Sep 20, 2020; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys receiver Amari Cooper (19) runs with the ball after a reception against Atlanta Falcons linebacker Dante Fowler Jr. (56) in the fourth quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
Pivots: Robert Woods should not be getting as little looks as he did last week all year and is cheaper than Kupp is and is capable of the same things, if you need to pay down a little bit or even just come off of Kupp because you need a few hundred, it is an understandable pivot. Emmanuel Sanders is only $4000 and the Bills over the last 2 seasons have shown no interest in running the football, so Manny is baked into decent volume on a weekly basis and I do not think you are going to see him continue to be this low in price. Amari Cooper is the #4 in projected ownership so he is just barely missed being in the player section, he will be over $8000 this year, get him at this price while you can. Mike Evans is not properly priced up for this matchup and the DK pricing is placing too much weight on his Week 1 performance, this is an amazing spot for him and I really do think he is a value at $6100. Tyler Boyd should not continue to be the odd man out like he was last week, at $4700 against a Bears D that looks to have lost form, I consider him pretty good value.
TEs:
Tyler Higbee ($4100): He played 100% of the offensive snaps last week and looks to be a component in this passing attack, he will have a harder time against the Colts LBs getting open but the value for him is tremendous. SMASH
Noah Fant ($4200): With no Jeudy it would seem Fant is due for a bigger role and all signs point to Denver just laying it on a terrible Jacksonville defense this week. All signs point up for Fant this week I just slightly prefer Higbee to him. SMASH
Darren Waller ($7600): Zero chance I am paying almost $8000 for a TE that is not Travis Kelce, especially against a good Steelers defense. Not a chance. SMASH
Pivots: Jared Cook at only $3900 seems like he is going to be involved in the passing game for the Chargers and he is a nice way to get a piece of the highest total game on the slate.
Defense:
Saints ($3100): In cash it is important to view defenses in terms of solely the FP/$ they can bring you, more so than other positions. With the Steelers being $3000, there is no reason to play the $3100 Saints who are in a worse spot. PASS
Jets ($2200): This is a solely if you need the salary play as the Patriots shouldn’t win this game because their rookie QB and bad skill core lay down the points on the Jets, so the floor is intact. SMASH
Bears ($2800): Did you see them last week and do you see the skill corps of the Bengals? PASS
Pivots: Steelers are only $3000 and are at home against a pretty bad Oakland offense. The Panthers while playing the Jets, look to have put together a good defense, Winston has no real weapons outside of his RBs so Carolina is not exactly in for a field day going up against them.
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