DFS Main Slate Injury Report Week 4

One of the biggest edges you can get in DFS is understanding fantasy football injuries on a weekly basis. Many times DraftKings and FanDuel don’t have enough time to adjust the price tags on backups when the starter gets ruled out creating massive value on a backup player in a starting role. However, sometimes the opposite happens and the backup gets priced for the role they’re in, but is obviously a weaker player than the starter, that’s when we can determine which players are “bad chalk” and can get some leverage on the field. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get the week 4 injuries report started!

Sep 19, 2021; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey (22) runs as New Orleans Saints cornerback Paulson Adebo (29) and defensive tackle Shy Tuttle (99) defend in the second quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Christian McCaffery:

The biggest fantasy football injury of the week is Christian McCaffery who will miss the next few games due to a hamstring injury. This injury happened on Thursday Night Football in week three which gave DraftKings and FanDuel enough time to price up his backup, Chuba Hubbard. He’s up to $5.9k on DraftKings and $6.3k on FanDuel which does leave a little meat on the bone if he gets the role that we’re expecting. Hubbard was the guy when McCaffery went down in week three and saw 55% of the snaps with McCaffery eating into that a bit at 30%, so the numbers don’t look quite as good as you might think. It’s pretty clear he’ll be the guy in this offense with Royce Freeman being his primary backup. The nice thing with Hubbard is he has pass-catching ability too which will keep that snap count up, he saw five targets last week and we know how much this Panthers offense likes to dump the ball off. My one concern with Hubbard is the game script may not exactly be in his favor as they match up with the Dallas Cowboys. We saw the Eagles have this issue last week where the Cowboys got ahead early and essentially had to ditch their run-game. Now, I don’t think it will be to the extent of two carriers like Miles Sanders saw, but something to keep in mind. Overall, I do like his potential production relative to some other guys in this price tag. There are some direct pivots you could get to like Antonio Gibson, Kareem Hunt, or Chase Edmonds for tournaments, but at the moment the Domination Station projects Hubbard to be a top-five point per dollar option at running back on FanDuel and a top ten point per dollar option on DraftKings.

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Julio Jones and A.J. Brown:

A.J. Brown ended up missing last week’s game due to a hamstring injury and has yet to practice this week, making it sound like the Titans will be without him again this week. Julio Jones didn’t play in the fourth quarter in week three and now sounds like it was due to suffering a leg injury. He has yet to practice this week either, so we will need to keep an eye on his status for practice on Friday heading into week four. At the moment, I’m operating under the assumption that the Titans will be without at least one of these guys and the biggest beneficiary being Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and probably the guy I would have the most interest in from a DFS perspective due to the price tag. Westbrook-Ikhine is $3.2k on DraftKings and $5.3k on FanDuel and played a season-high 78% of snaps in week three. Not to mention he caught all four of his targets for 53 yards and a touchdown against a good Indianapolis defense. At the moment, the Domination Station below has him projected for just 7.75 DraftKings points, but that’s with Julio Jones still projected as in, this projection will rise if he’s ruled out at some point.

The Jets defense has not been good this season even though they rank third in DvP, but oh man is there some regression coming on that. They played the New England passing attack in week two and the Broncos last week, both teams don’t exactly thrive through the air so that DvP ranking will come way down at some point. The other guy that would likely see an increase in snaps is Chester Rogers but he’s probably not a guy I’ll get to on the main slate, I’d rather just play Westbrook-Ikhine at a similar price tag and grab a bit more upside.

Quick Hitters:

Dalvin Cook – Cook turned in a limited practice on Thursday which makes it look like he’ll be good to go Sunday against the Browns. Assuming this is the case, you can safely go back to fading Alexander Mattison at $6.8k on FanDuel and $6.6k on DraftKings, don’t let the game logs fool you.
Antonio Gibson – This one is a bit concerning, Gibson was a late-week non-participant in practice due to a shin injury. I do like this Washington offense this week against a bad Atlanta defense, so maybe J.D. McKissic becomes an interesting DraftKings option at $5k due to the pass-catching upside with him. That being said, there really isn’t a direct handcuff to Gibson, so more of a watch-out than anything for DraftKings purposes.
George Kittle – I’m not sure how serious this injury is or if it’s just maintenance on Kittle, but if he were to miss it would open up a bunch of targets in the middle of the field for the Niners. He’s second on the team with a 17.9% target share on the season, so look for guys like Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel to take full control of the receiving duties.
Elijah Mitchell – We’ll stick with the Niners here, Mitchell was a non-contact participant in practice today. If he ends up being a go on Sunday, the Niners backfield will likely become a full fade for me as we saw Trey Sermon get the start last week and not do a whole lot. I would probably just go to a Mike Davis or Zack Moss type in the Sermon/Mitchell price range if you land in that spot unless we get clarity from the Niners on who the workhorse will be.
Darrell Henderson Jr. – It sounds like the Rams are anticipating Henderson to play here, keep an eye on his Friday practice session. If he is a full-go I wouldn’t expect him to be limited at all on Sunday and makes for an interesting tournament option in his price range. In the first two weeks, he averaged 16.5 DraftKings points per game and has looked solid in a high-flying offense.
Chicago Quarterbacks – I talked about this at length in my Full Week 4 – Breakdown, but this is probably a stay-away spot for me considering how bad this offense was last week. You can make a case for Fields as a cash option due to the rushing floor but probably not a spot I want to go to until he proves he can be a competent NFL quarterback. He actually hurts the ancillary options such as Allen Robinson and David Montgomery as well, so a boost to them if Dalton or Foles starts.

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