Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 5/5:

Dec 8, 2019; Charlottesville, VA, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Cole Anthony (2) drives to the basket as Virginia Cavaliers guard Kihei Clark (0) defends in the first half at John Paul Jones Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
I want to give a quick shoutout to VIP Member “TheSoprano12” on their $100,000 win earlier this season!! Better go buy a Boban jersey after that one!
Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 218
Vegas Spread: Bos -11.0
We’ll kick the slate off with the Celtics, it looks like Jaylen Brown will miss this game while Tristan Thompson comes in as questionable, let’s run some numbers with Brown off the court this season to see how these other guys grade out:
- Jayson Tatum – 35.3% usage rate; 1.39 fpm
- Kemba Walker – 30.9% usage rate; 1.18 fpm
- Marcus Smart – 21.3% usage rate; 0.96 fpm
These would be the three main guys I have an interest in for the Celtics, you can make a case for Evan Fournier, but he hasn’t exactly benefitted with Brown out at 0.68 fantasy points per minute. That being said, the Magic are a great matchup all around as a struggling defensive team. You can also make a case for Robert Williams here, he’s going to see anywhere between about 22 and 28 minutes, but he’s been a nice point-per-minute guy on the season. From the Magic, Cole Anthony followed up his 50 point game with a dud against the Pistons in just 21 minutes of action, I’m willing to just ignore that game, especially on FanDuel where he’s only $5.8k. Wendell Carter Jr. hasn’t been all that great lately, while Mo Bamba has gotten fewer minutes but been the better fantasy producer. I think you can go back to Bamba here, he looked really good last time out in 29 minutes of action. Dwayne Bacon is playing big minutes and should continue to along with RJ Hampton and Gary Harris due to how shorthanded they are. Of those three, Bacon is your safest for cash games but I love the upside you get in a guy like Hampton who has back-to-back 40 point fantasy nights. Mo Wagner has started the last three games and played at least 28 minutes in both of them, including 41 minutes last time out. The price has come up on him, but no enough if this is the type of run he’s going to see, which is likely due to how shorthanded they are.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum, Cole Anthony (FanDuel)
4-star play: Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart, Robert Williams, Cole Anthony (DraftKings), Mo Bamba, RJ Hampton, Dwayne Bacon, Mo Wagner
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Evan Fournier, Wendell Carter Jr.
Portland Trailblazers @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 229
Vegas Spread: Por -12.0
Starting with the Blazers, Damian Lillard has at least 53 DraftKings points in three straight games and is always a guy I like to ride out hot streaks with, so if you’ve been on him the last three days, go right back to him here. CJ McCollum has been a bit all over the place over his last handful of games, I don’t really have an issue with him, but more of a secondary option in a pace-down matchup for me. Jusuf Nurkic’s minutes WERE trending in the right direction before he saw 23 minutes last time out. I have no issue with him if you want to get some exposure, but on a bigger slate, I think I want more minutes upside. Norman Powell comes in as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for status updates surrounding him and who enters our player pool if he is ruled out. From the Cavaliers, Darius Garland comes in as questionable so we’ll need news surrounding him as well. That said, Collin Sexton has a 30.3% usage rate and 1.12 fantasy points per minute with Garland and Nance off the court this season. I am okay getting to some Jarrett Allen as well here, although I generally hate targeting big men against Nurkic, he plays the paint really tough. Kevin Love played 34 minutes last time out but missed the double-double bonus by three points. I do like this spot for him, as it’s a pace bump that should help his overall DFS production. I do like the price on him slightly better on FanDuel. Then you can round this team out with Isaac Okoro and Cedi Osman, Osman has more upside but Okoro’s minutes are more locked in.
5-star play: Damian Lillard
4-star play: CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic, Collin Sexton, Kevin Love, Jarrett Allen
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jusuf Nurkic, Jarrett Allen, Norman Powell
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Phoenix Suns @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 228
Vegas Spread: Pho -1.0
Starting with the Suns, it’s always tough for me to get to this Suns team when they’re at full strength, but Devin Booker and Chris Paul are both fine options if you’re looking to get exposure here. Paul is coming off a massive game against the Cavs where he dropped 72 FanDuel points. DeAndre Ayton had a nice bounce-back game last time out as well, I don’t generally love targeting big men against Clint Capela though, he can be a bruiser down low. Then we get to these wings with guys like Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, and Torrey Craig. They’ll all see solid run with Jae Crowder off the court, but Bridges is pretty easily your safest option. I don’t really see a way that fading Johnson and Craig can kill your lineups, but they’re solid value options nonetheless. One last name I’ll mention is Cameron Payne, he always gets overlooked because we’ve gotten better value open up lately, but if you’re ever strapped for value, he’s a nice target and a pretty consistent 18-20 fantasy points. From the Hawks, they’re beginning to get a bit healthier with Trae Young back and Bogdan Bogdanovic coming in as probable. That being said, it’s not exactly the best matchup against a really good Suns defense. I’ll consider them more GPP plays than anything for me on this slate. John Collins is more of a GPP guy due to his volatility but this is the type of game where I like to target him, still more of a tournament guy though. I do like Clint Capela a bit, Ayton can be had down low at times, while at other times he can look like an elite defender for few minute spurts. Lastly, Kevin Huerter makes for a solid filler piece in GPPs if you happen to land on him, but not a guy I’m prioritizing.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Devin Booker, Chris Paul, DeAndre Ayton, Trae Young, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Clint Capela
Deeper Value: Cameron Payne
GPP Sleeper: Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, Torrey Craig, Kevin Huerter
Philadelphia 76ers @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 222.5
Vegas Spread: Phi -13.0
Starting with the Sixers, Joel Embiid’s minutes have come up over the last two games, but I don’t know that we can count on that in this matchup against a Rockets team that they should boat race. That said, assuming he gets his usual run, he’s an elite raw play as always. Ben Simmons isn’t a guy I’ve been getting to all that much, he just hasn’t looked that great. We know he has triple-double upside every time he’s on the court, but we just haven’t seen it. I don’t hate him for GPPs if you want to chase that upside, but I won’t go there in cash games. Tobias Harris had a nice game last time out and his price tag is getting to a more playable range, I don’t have an issue with him here. Outside of those three, I have a tough time finding a piece that I like from the Sixers, maybe Shake Milton if you’re thinking blowout? From the Rockets, Christian Wood’s production has come down over the past two games but his price has not, and now he gets a matchup with Joel Embiid down low, which generally doesn’t lead to much success. He’s more of a tournament option than anything. I do think you can get to Kevin Porter here, I just love playing guys that see minutes like he’ll see, he has at least 35 minutes in four straight games and has a real chance to get those into the 40’s. I like his price tag much more on FanDuel, however. Kelly Olynyk has been so good since being traded to the Rockets, he has at least 48 DraftKings points in four of his last five games, but I probably wouldn’t use my center spot on him over at FanDuel. He has multi-position eligibility on DraftKings which makes him a bit easier to roster. Then Jae’Sean Tate is really the only other guy that I’ll have interest in here, he’s never a sexy play, but sees good run and normally produces at a nice rate when he’s out there.
5-star play: Joel Embiid, Kevin Porter (FanDuel)
4-star play: Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, Christian Wood, Kevin Porter (DraftKings), Kelly Olynyk
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Shake Milton, Jae’Sean Tate, Christian Wood
Sacramento Kings @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 239.5
Vegas Spread: Ind -6.5
We don’t have an implied total on this one yet, but I would assume it’s through the roof similar to the Pacers/Wizards last time out. That game went for 295 total points, without overtime, this game has that potential as well with how fast both of these teams are playing. We’ll get started with the Kings, it looks like De’Aaron Fox comes into this one as questionable, while Tyrese Haliburton and Harrison Barnes will all be out here, so let’s run some numbers with these guys off the court assuming that Fox is out again:
- Delon Wright – 25.2% usage rate; 1.24 fpm
- Terence Davis – 19.9% usage rate; 0.88 fpm
- Buddy Hield – 28.3% usage rate; 1.13 fpm
These would be my three favorite options on the Kings, but you can obviously get to some of these other guys like Richaun Holmes, Marvin Bagley, and Moe Harkless. I was all over Wright, Davis, and Bagley last night and it worked out well, I have no issue going back to the well in this matchup. From the Pacers, it looks like the only injury news we’ll be waiting on here is Malcolm Brogdon and Jeremy Lamb who both come in as questionable here. I’m going to operate under the assumption that they play for the sake of this article. I like this game quite a bit for fantasy purposes, both teams have played really fast and loose this season, so there should be plenty of scoring opportunities here. Domantas Sabonis has back-to-back 70+ point fantasy games and has seen his price skyrocket, for good reason. I have no issue going back to him here in another great matchup. Brogdon missed their game on Monday, but had come into that game in great form and had a good game in this spot earlier this season. Caris LeVert has been in good form as well, but I would prefer Brogdon to be out for me to go all that heavy on him due to the price tag he’s carrying. It seems like Oshae Brissett is going to continue to play massive minutes but the price is up on him now, the nice thing about him on FanDuel is you know he’s going to rack up those steals and blocks, hence the price differential from DraftKings.
***Assuming Fox and Barnes are out again for the Kings***
5-star play: Delon Wright, Marvin Bagley, Domantas Sabonis
4-star play: Terence Davis, Buddy Hield, Richaun Holmes, Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Moe Harkless, Oshae Brissett
Memphis Grizzlies @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 237.5
Vegas Spread: Mem -3.0
Starting with the Grizzlies, Ja Morant has cooled down a bit from about a weak ago when he was dropping 60 point games left and right but he’s still been good, I just think the price is a bit too high for my liking. I do like the tag on FanDuel though, so that’s where I would get my exposure in a good matchup with a bad Wolves defense. Jonas Valanciunas is averaging 42.6 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Timberwolves this season, I love the upside you get on him in this spot. The rest of this team is always hard for me to get to when they’re fully healthy because of how deep they can go. Especially with Grayson Allen now back which clogs things up even more for those wings and the backcourt. From the Wolves, Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 55.8 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Grizzlies this season, I have no issue going with him as a spend-up option on this slate. I like Anthony Edwards here as well, the Grizzlies have struggled with opposing wings all season, that being said I do like his DraftKings price much more. D’Angelo Russell has yet to re-enter the starting lineup and I’m starting to think maybe that’s where the Wolves like him, bringing some scoring off the bench. He’s going to play around 30 minutes regardless, so it doesn’t bother me if he’s coming in off the bench. Then the rest of these guys like Ricky Rubio and potentially Jaden McDaniels are all MME guys for me.
5-star play: Ja Morant (FanDuel), Karl-Anthony Towns
4-star play: Jonas Valanciunas, Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell, Ja Morant (DraftKings)
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson, Ricky Rubio
Washington Wizards @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 243
Vegas Spread: Mil -3.5
This is another game that should have a massive implied total, both of these teams like to run and gun. Starting with the Wizards, Russell Westbrook is coming off another big game and is averaging 69.9 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Bucks this season, he should truly be a $13k player right now, and he’s not, not even close. Bradley Beal had a big game in this spot earlier this season as well, but I would rather just find the money to play Westbrook, and I don’t necessarily want to play them together. The Wizards are generally pretty easy to break down because it’s pretty much those two studs and then a bunch of dart throw GPP guys. My favorite being that center position with guys like Daniel Gafford, Alex Len, and Davis Bertans if they go small. That being said, it’s pretty clear Gafford is the guy. From the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 73.5 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Wizards this season and come in with really good form, he’s an elite raw option as usual. Khris Middleton has been really good as of late and scoring much better from the field, I have no issue getting to him here. Jrue Holiday has been a bit more volatile, but he’s still going to play a ton of minutes, similar to Middleton, no issue with getting to him in what should be a great game. Bobby Portis returned last night to play just 16 minutes, but I think that was more due to game flow and the Bucks wanting PJ Tucker’s defense out there, he’s still probably too expensive for my liking here. Lastly, a guy I do like quite a bit is Donte DiVincenzo, his price has fallen too far, and coming off a nice performance last night.
5-star play: Russell Westbrook, Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Bradley Beal, Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, Donte DiVincenzo
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Daniel Gafford, Davis Bertans, Brook Lopez
San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 218.5
Vegas Spread: Utah -6.5
We saw this game last time out between these two teams, so we have something to work off of here. Starting with the Spurs, DeMar DeRozan has been in really good form as of late and a guy I think we can get to here in a pace-up spot even against a tougher defense. That said, I do like him much more on DraftKings, that’s a huge price tag over on FanDuel. This is a tough spot for Jakob Poeltl as he’ll have to deal with Rudy Gobert down low, I do like the price tag, but it’s hard to feel comfortable about the spot. Keldon Johnson came back to Earth last time out, we kind of know the story on him by now, he’s going to be a highly volatile player, so GPP only. Lastly, Lonnie Walker is a solid value option if you need one, his minutes should be pretty secure with Derrick White out for the remainder of the season. From the Jazz, Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley will continue to be out for this team. Rudy Gobert dropped a 50 burger on the Spurs last time out, he should be able to do whatever he wants again in this one, but generally not a guy I love to roster. Jordan Clarkson hasn’t been all that impressive with Conley and Mitchell out, but the Spurs have been struggling with opposing point guards all season long and is a solid option here. Bojan Bogdanovic and Joe Ingles have been the guys to own lately, they’re both in really good form, and guys you can get to here while Royce O’Neale is more of a GPP guy.
5-star play: None
4-star play: DeMar DeRozan, Dejounte Murray, Rudy Gobert, Jordan Clarkson, Bojan Bogdanovic, Joe Ingles
Deeper Value: Lonnie Walker
GPP Sleeper: Jakob Poeltl, Royce O’Neale
New York Knicks @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 214.5
Vegas Spread: Den -3.5
We’ll round out this slate starting with the Knicks, the big news here could be what the Knicks will do at their center position. Nerlens Noel’s x-rays came back negative, he ended up missing their last game but comes into this one as questionable. If he ends up missing we could see more Julius Randle at the center position along with Taj Gibson likely getting the start again. That said, keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding them. Julius Randle is a solid option on both sites, he’s cheaper on FanDuel but still playable on DraftKings, he’s been in good form coming into this one. RJ Barrett is a guy I like here, I would think he gets a good chunk of Michael Porter Jr. on defense, who isn’t in the NBA for his defensive abilities, so if you need a SF don’t forget about Barrett. Derrick Rose is a fine option, but I just don’t know how much you’ll need him on a nine-game slate, more of a filler piece than anything for me. Keep an eye on Alec Burks as well, he returned last game to play 16 minutes, so he’s clearly not in any sort of shape to play huge minutes which should funnel those minutes to guys like Reggie Bullock and Immanuel Quickley. From the Nuggets, things pretty much always start with Nikola Jokic when it comes to this team. He should be able to do whatever he wants in this matchup whether Noel plays or not, he’s an elite raw option as always. Michael Porter Jr. continues to put up good numbers as well, the price has come way up on him, but for good reason, he’s the number two option now with Murray out for Denver. Aaron Gordon just feels like he’s going to be a tough guy to predict for the rest of the season, he’s more of a deep GPP guy for me. PJ Dozier is out for this one as well, so Facundo Campazzo’s locked in minutes become… more locked in, but we should see a good amount of Austin Rivers with him out.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic, Julius Randle
4-star play: RJ Barrett, Michael Porter Jr., Facundo Campazzo, Austin Rivers
Deeper Value: Austin Rivers
GPP Sleeper: Derrick Rose, Aaron Gordon
NBA Lock of the Day: Cheat Sheets/Core 4
We’re at that point in the NBA season where finding a lock of the day happens much closer to lock rather than earlier in the morning due to how fluid the injury reports are, so I’ll keep the lock of the day for our VIP members. Come get signed up and take a look at our Core plays on our Cheat Sheets/Coaches Notes for tonight, maybe take a gander at the DraftKings tiers notes while you’re in there as well! These notes include Core plays, player ranks, and tiers notes, so come check them out! Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your lock predictions and if your player gets over 5x tonight I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!
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