5/14 NBA DFS Optimal Picks Advice
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Steve aka @Mutt18 on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. We also have NEW pricing options, where you can sign up for WEEKLY access as opposed to be committed for a full month, so you have no excuse to try us out! With that said, let’s get it started!
Washington’s Russell Westbrook (4) shouts before an April 23 game against the Thunder.Lx12074
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 228
Vegas Spread: Wsh -8
Starting with the Cavaliers, Darius Garland is going to miss this one meaning Sexton should see a nice boost in the backcourt. Collin Sexton has a 30.3% usage rate and 1.12 fantasy points per minute with Garland and Nance off the court this season but I do like his price a bit more on FanDuel. I am okay getting to some Jarrett Allen as well here, the Wizards don’t exactly have a great interior defense. Kevin Love has been solid as well, but I don’t think they’ll push him here. Then you can round this team out with Isaac Okoro and Cedi Osman, Osman has more upside but Okoro’s minutes are more locked in, Osman also missed last game, so that is something to keep an eye on as well. Now for the Wizards, Russell Westbrook just keeps going, as he triple doubled again the other night and I don’t see him slowing down as the Wizards have jumped close to the 8 seed and are looking to sneak in to the play in tournament. Bradley Beal has missed the past few games, but if he is in then he is very much in play here as his price has come down a bit. The Wizards are generally pretty easy to break down because it’s pretty much those two studs and then a bunch of dart throw GPP guys. Raul Neto has been starting and will see a bigger role if Beal is out, and if Rui Hachimura suits up for this one he’ll be a premier play as well. My favorite being that center position with guys like Daniel Gafford, Alex Len, and Davis Bertans if they go small. That being said, it’s pretty clear Gafford is the guy as he’s the most talented of that bunch. Bertans has also been solid off the bench and he’s dirt cheap as well.
5-star play: Russell Westbrook
4-star play: Collin Sexton, Bradley Beal (if in), Rui Hachimura, Jarrett Allen
Deeper Value: Isaac Okoro, Raul Neto, Daniel Gafford, Davis Bertans
GPP Sleeper: Isaac Okoro
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Denver Nuggets @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 219
Vegas Spread: Den -9.5
Starting with the Nuggets, things pretty much always start with Nikola Jokic. He is has been smashing all year long but with MPJ back he has a lit bit more of a limited ceiling if he even plays tonight. Michael Porter Jr. continues to put up good numbers as well, he has at least 42 DraftKings points in three straight games. Aaron Gordon just feels like he’s going to be a tough guy to predict for the rest of the season, he’s more of a deep NBA GPP guy for me but he is dirt cheap on FanDuel once again and has put together 2 great games in a row. PJ Dozier and Will Barton will continue to miss time and it sounds like Monte Morris is questionable, so Facundo Campazzo’s are secure as ever here, but we should see a good amount of Austin Rivers with these guys out. Both Rivers and Campazzo have looked really good as of late and are probably still too cheap here given the matchup. I would prefer the price tag on both of them on DraftKings, the FanDuel prices are less friendly especially on Rivers. From the Pistons, they’re going to be without their usual frontcourt guys in Mason Plumlee and Jerami Grant along with Cory Joseph, Hamidou Diallo, and Wayne Ellington. Then the two Jackson’s come in as questionable so keep an eye on the NBA Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding their status. Killian Hayes is coming off one of the better games of his career last time out in 38 minutes against the Bulls and is a guy you can go right back to here, they’re going to give these young guys some run to round out the season. Sekou Doumbouya is another guy that has shown some good spurts as of late, if he gets the start here I’ll have some interest at this price tag in a great matchup with the Wolves. Saddiq Bey and Isaiah Stewart are probably the two most consistent guys on this team if you’re looking for some cash game options.
5-star play: Michael Porter, Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Killian Hayes, Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Stewart
Deeper Value: Frank Jackson, Austin Rivers, Aaron Gordon
GPP Sleeper: Aaron Gordon
Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 218
Vegas Spread: Phi -14
Starting with Magic, Cole Anthony has not been all that impressive as of late after looking really good since returning from injury. That said, he did score well last night despite the blowout. Wendell Carter Jr. should be good to go in this one as Mo Bamba comes in questionable with an illness. If Bamba ends up sitting it helps secure those minutes on Carter and makes him a solid option at this price tag. Dwayne Bacon has been fine as of late, but the price has caught up to him a bit, more of a secondary filler option if you land on him. I would prefer just to find the money for RJ Hampton if you’re looking to get exposure here, he’s shown the higher ceiling as of late. Mo Wagner is coming off a big game last time out and now has at least 30 DraftKings points in two of his last three games. I like getting to him as a tournament option in hopes he can get hot from the field. Then you can round this team out with Ignas Brazdeikis who I think makes for an interesting tournament value option. Now for the Sixers, Joel Embiid comes into this one as questionable and they’re not going to push him here, they all but have the number one seed in the East locked up, so there is no need for him to go out and play 35ish minutes. For that reason, he’s more of a NBA GPP guy for me simply because I don’t see him playing the huge minutes you would like to see from him. Ben Simmons is a guy I would have interest in if Embiid ends up sitting, he had a nice outing last time out with Embiid out going for 42 DraftKings points in 37 minutes. Tobias Harris is in that same boat, he would see his rebound equity increase if he’s not fighting for boards with Embiid. Outside of those three, I have a tough time finding a piece that I like from the Sixers, this game should be one of the slower ones and there should be a ton of value here in this game.
5-star play: Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris
4-star play: Wendell Carter, Dwayne Bacon, Mo Wagner
Deeper Value: RJ Hampton, Shake Milton
GPP Sleeper: RJ Hampton
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Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 222
Vegas Spread: Uth -13.5
From the Jazz, Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley will continue to be out for this team. Rudy Gobert should have a field day against this Thunders interior, the floor is safe for him in NBA cash games tonight. Jordan Clarkson will continue to be a solid option, I just don’t love the price tag, but he feels pretty safe and has a solid ceiling with Mitchell and Clarkson off the court. Bojan Bogdanovic and Joe Ingles have been the guys to own lately, they’re both in really good form, and guys you can get to here while Royce O’Neale is more of a GPP guy. Now for the Thunder, Lu Dort just continues to look good from a fantasy perspective, but he is a GTD again here, so if he misses then it opens up a lot for other guys. Darius Bazley has looked pretty good over his last handful of games, but I like the price tag much better on FanDuel. Theo Maledon has been solid but a bit underwhelming. Moses Brown has seemingly disappeared since signing that multi-year contract with the Thunder, he’s a deep MME guy for just because we know the ceiling is there somewhere and this could be a nice spot for him in a pace up game, but he played well in their last game. Isaiah Roby has been grabbing some of those Brown minutes and has looked pretty good as of late, I would rather take the chance on him and he doesn’t use up a center spot but I hate the price on FanDuel. Aleksej Pokusevski is in here as well, and Gabriel Deck who has secretly been a FPPM monster when given the time. Ty Jerome also played solid minutes and can put up some nice FP performances when given time.
5-star play: Rudy Gobert, Jordan Clarkson
4-star play: Darius Bazley, Aleksej Pokusevski, Bojan Bogdanovic, Joe Ingles
Deeper Value: Moses Brown, Ty Jerome, Gabriel Deck, Isaiah Roby
GPP Sleeper: Ty Jerome, Gabriel Deck
Toronto Raptors @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 222
Vegas Spread: Dal -13
Starting with the Raptors, they’re likely going to be without their main guys again here including Siakam, VanVleet, Lowry, and Anunoby. I would assume the starting lineup looks something like Malachi Flynn, Gary Trent, Stanley Johnson, Boucher and Khem Birch. I would have interest in pretty much all of these guys except potentially Trent as he just didn’t play last night and Stanley Johnson basically scored more FPs than he did all year in one game. I do like Jalen Harris coming off the bench though, he has looked really good the past two games playing 25 minutes in both games. You can make a case for Freddie Gillespie as well, he’s been playing solid center minutes behind Birch but he needs Boucher to be out. The Raptors are a team that isn’t playing for anything so they’re going to let these younger guys go out and show off what they can do and earn either a contract or some playing time next season. From the Mavericks, Kristaps Porzingis comes into this one as questionable, but I’m just going to operate under the assumption that he’s out until we get definitive word that he’s playing, so we can go right back to Luka Doncic. Luka has a 36.9% usage rate and 1.53 fantasy points per minute with Kristaps off the court this season. As weird as it sounds, he’s about as far as my interest goes on the Mavs. The frontcourt is a disaster, but if you want to throw a dart and see if you can pick the correct guy between Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell, and Willie Cauley-Stein, go for it, I’ll find somewhere else. That said, you can get to some of these ancillary pieces in NBA GPP if you have an interest in guys like Dorian Finney-Smith, Jalen Brunson, and Tim Hardaway Jr., you can probably throw Josh Richardson in that group as well, but it’s not pretty. I will say, Hardaway Jr. has been really good and consistent as of late but the price has caught up on him.
5-star play: Luka Doncic
4-star play: Malachi Flynn, Stanley Johnson, Chris Boucher, Khem Birch, Tim Hardaway Jr.
Deeper Value: Jalen Brunson, Jalen Harris, Dwight Powell
GPP Sleeper: Jalen Harris, Stanley Johnson
Los Angeles Clippers @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 227
Vegas Spread: Lac -12
I don’t have an issue with going to either Kawhi Leonard or Paul George here, as they’re prices are low especially on FanDuel, but they are on the 2nd half of a B2B and playing one of the worst teams in the NBA, so they may rest here. I really just haven’t played these Clippers guys all that much this season when they’re both healthy. I think we can find better options on this slate. They’re fine if you fall on them as a filler piece, but I’m not prioritizing either of them. Honestly, with them both in there I don’t have a whole lot of interest in anything from the Clippers, you can make a case for a guy like Ivica Zubac, but I think you’re reaching at that point on an 8 game slate. If PG and Kawhi are out then it’ll open up a ton of value for guys like Terence Mann and Reggie Jackson. Now for the Rockets, this team is going to be a bit of a mess for this final week, Christian Wood comes in as questionable but I’m just going to operate under the assumption that he’s out until he’s not anymore… as obvious as that may sound. Let’s run some data with Wood, Kevin Porter Jr., and Eric Gordon off the court over the past four weeks:
- Kelly Olynyk – 25.6% usage rate; 1.43 fpm
- KJ Martin – 19.6% usage rate; 1.01 fpm
- Jae’Sean Tate- 25.5% usage rate; 1.18 fpm
These three would be my favorite options on the Rockets along with DJ Augustin who should continue to start for them here.
5-star play: Kawhi Leonard, Kelly Olynyk
4-star play: KJ Martin, Jae’Sean Tate, Ivica Zubac
Deeper Value: Anthony Lamb, Reggie Jackson, Terence Mann
GPP Sleeper: DJ Augustin
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Sacramento Kings @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 226.5
Vegas Spread: Mem -5.5
Starting with the Kings, we’ve got some injury stuff to sort out here, De’Aaron Fox will continue to miss as well as Harrison Barnes and Marvin Bagley are both doubtful here. This leaves Richaun Holmes and guys like Buddy Hield, Moe Harkless, and Chimezi Metu to man the frontcourt. Metu should get the start in this one and has looked really good lately, he has at least 27 minutes in his past two games and is cheap enough on both sites for me to have interest in him here, Holmes also left the game with an injury last night as well, so if he is out that puts Damian Jones into play as well. Delon Wright should continue to start and see big minutes as well, he’s been playing really well and gets a revenge game against his old squad in this one. Terence Davis is another guy that has looked really good as of late, he has at least 35 DraftKings points in 3 of his last 4. The price has come up on him but for good reason, he’s another guy you can get to pretty comfortably here. From the NBA Grizzlies, Ja Morant has cooled down a bit from about 2 weeks ago when he was dropping 60 point games left and right but he’s still been good and with it the 2nd half of a B2B I can see them resing JoVal here as he barely made it last night. On FanDuel he is very much in play at that tag given the matchup against this bad Pelicans defense. Jonas Valanciunas has a great matchup here as well, as he’s been playing really well and without Holmes the Kings are horrible against bigs, but like I said he may sit here. If Grayson Allen ends up missing we can go back to guys like De’Anthony Melton and secures the minutes on Dillon Brooks and Kyle Anderson a bit.
5-star play: Buddy Hield, Delon Wright
4-star play: Ja Morant, Kyle Anderson, Dillon Brooks, Terence Davis
Deeper Value: De’Anthony Melton, Terence Davis, Chimezi Metu, Damian Jones
GPP Sleeper: Chimezi Metu
New Orleans Pelicans @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 230
Vegas Spread: Gsw -4
Starting with the Pelicans, the big news here is that Zion is out for the foreseeable future with that finger fracture, and Brandon Ingram is doubtful again so this opens up a lot for the Pels in terms of usage, it breaks down like this:
Eric Bledsoe: 24.4% usage rate; 0.95 FPPM
Lonzo Ball: 28.9% usage rate; 1.28 FPPM
Willy Hernangomez: 22.4% usage rate; 1.39 FPPM
Jaxson Hayes: 22.7% usage rate; 1.32 FPPM
I would think that the Pels want to continue to get their younger guys some experience, so I’d roll with Jaxson Hayes over James Johnson once again here, and we even saw Eric Bledsoe come back to life yesterday as well, he’ll be a strong GPP play here tonight.
Now for the Warriors, Kelly Oubre is likely going to continue to be out here, so let’s run some NBA numbers with Oubre off the court this season:
- Stephen Curry – 35.5% usage rate; 1.58 fpm
- Andrew Wiggins – 22.3% usage rate; 0.87 fpm
- Draymond Green – 13.2% usage rate; 1.07 fpm
- Kent Bazemore – 18.2% usage rate; 0.87 fpm
- Jordan Poole – 27.7% usage rate; 1.1 fpm
Curry and Green both went over the 60 point threshold on DraftKings the other night and are guys you can go right back to in this one. As a whole I think you can target the Warriors a decent amount, and we have one of the higher totals on the night, and this should be one of the more competitive games on the night as well and there are playoff implications here as well.
5-star play: Stephen Curry, Draymond Green
4-star play: Andrew Wiggins, Eric Bledsoe, Jaxson Hayes, Willy Hernangomez
Deeper Value: James Johnson, Kent Bazemore, Jordan Poole
GPP Sleeper: Jordan Poole
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