5/15 NBA DFS Optimal Picks Advice
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Steve aka @Mutt18 on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. We also have NEW pricing options, where you can sign up for WEEKLY access as opposed to be committed for a full month, so you have no excuse to try us out! With that said, let’s get it started!
May 7, 2021; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; New York Knicks forward Julius Randle (30) reacts against the Phoenix Suns at Phoenix Suns Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Chicago Bulls @ Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total: TBD
Vegas Spread: TBD
Starting with the Bulls, Nikola Vucevic came down to Earth a bit last time out but doesn’t seem too bothered by having Zach LaVine back in there. It’s an elite matchup for both of these Bulls guys against a pretty bad Nets defense, so you can make a case for both Vuc and LaVine in this one. Coby White continues to produce, but I can’t stomach this price tag on him with LaVine back in there, I think we can be picky tonight and White just isn’t in the cards for me. I do like Thad Young and Daniel Theis, and I’ll like Young even more if Theis ends up missing, so keep an eye out for that news. Overall, this is a pretty nice matchup for the Bulls against this Nets team that isn’t going to play a whole lot of defense. From the Nets, we’re going to need some news on this team before we can really break them down as both Kyrie Irving and James Harden come in as questionable here. If I had to guess I would think Irving sits and Harden gets limited run to help get his legs under him for the playoffs, but they don’t have much reason to push Kyrie if he’s not good to go. The Nets are a game up on the Bucks for the two seed in the East, but the Bucks have the tiebreaker, so they’ll be out there trying to win, but they’re not going to mortgage the playoffs to do so. Outside of that big three, I do think Blake Griffin is interesting. He’s been getting much more work than I expected when he came over from Detroit at a nice price tag. Lastly, Bruce Brown can have a big game from time to time especially if Kyrie and Harden do miss this game.
5-star play: Nikola Vucevic, Zach LaVine, Kevin Durant
4-star play: Kyrie Irving, Coby White
Deeper Value: Thad Young, Daniel Theis
GPP Sleeper: Lauri Markkanen, Blake Griffin, Bruce Brown
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Los Angeles Lakers @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: TBD
Vegas Spread: TBD
From the Lakers, it sounds like LeBron James should return in this game. I wouldn’t be surprised if they eased him back a bit just to get the legs under him, but this team needs to fight like hell to get out of that play-ingame, so I could be off on that thinking. Anthony Davis came down to Earth last time out and now will have to deal with LeBron taking usage from him as well, as weird as it sounds, it’s kind of a stay-away spot for me in cash. That being said, it’s an elite matchup for both of these guys, so no issue with going to them in GPP or even SE tournaments if you’re feeling risky. LeBron James especially on FanDuel is far too cheap at under $9k. Dennis Schroeder is still out and Alex Caruso comes in as questionable after leaving last game early. I would have some interest in Talen Horton-Tucker if Caruso ends up missing, he played 34 minutes last game on his way to a big fantasy night. Then you can round this team out with Andre Drummond and Kyle Kuzma as deeper GPP options. From the Pacers, Domantas Sabonis is on a tear right now, he has at least 55 DraftKings points in four straight games and playing around 40 minutes per game. He has a tough matchup but is still a great play. Part of that production increase has been due to Malcolm Brogdon being out as of late, he should miss this one as well. Caris LeVert is another guy that has benefitted from Brogdon being out, he has been great lately as well but man it’s hard to stomach that price tag on him, more of a GPP guy, but I won’t talk you off of him in cash due to the matchup. TJ McConnell hasn’t done enough with Brogdon out lately for me to really have all that much interest but I suppose you can make a case for him GPPs if you really want to get some exposure to this game at a discount. Kelan Martin should also see big minutes off the bench here, especially if Holiday were to miss as well.
5-star play: Domantas Sabonis, Caris LeVert
4-star play: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kyle Kuzma, Andre Drummond
Deeper Value: TJ McConnell, Kelan Martin, Alex Caruso
GPP Sleeper: Kelan Martin
Charlotte Hornets @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 212
Vegas Spread: Nyk -6
From the Hornets, Terry Rozier came down to Earth last time out but still got his minutes into the 40’s, I have no issue going back to him at this price tag. LaMelo Ball has been pretty underwhelming the past two games relative to his price tag, a price tag I like a lot more on FanDuel where he’s $1k cheaper, he was much better last game but the pace of this game is going to be slow. Miles Bridges should continue to sit here which will open up minutes for wings like Jalen McDaniels and Caleb Martin (questionable as well coming in). PJ Washington has been pretty good lately and similar to the rest of these guys, getting huge minutes. Lastly, Devonte’ Graham returned the other night to drop 46 fantasy points on the Nuggets, he’s priced way up on FanDuel, but a very reasonable play on DraftKings where he’s under $6k. From the Knicks, Julius Randle is always a guy that I have an interest in due to the minutes he sees on a nightly basis. It’s hard not to like a guy that is going to play around 40 minutes in a really nice matchup, especially since the Hornets don’t rebound well. RJ Barrett is coming off a great game last time out, but yet another guy that is going to play an insane amount of minutes and gives you an option at SF if you’re struggling to find someone. Derrick Rose is cookin’ right now, he has at least 45 DraftKings points in two straight but missed last game, but I’ll have interest in him if he plays. Talk about a guy that is playing absolutely massive minutes right now, Reggie Bullock has 46 minutes in each of his last two games… I think I could go out there and do what he did in 46 minutes last time out though. He’s not a great per-minute guy, so you’re banking on him getting hot from the field a bit, so more of a GPP guy than anything. Nerlens Noel has been held under 20 fantasy points in three straight games, but he is in play on a small slate
5-star play: Julius Randle
4-star play: RJ Barrett, LaMelo Ball, Devonte’ Graham, Derrick Rose, PJ Washington
Deeper Value: Reggie Bullock, Nerlens Noel
GPP Sleeper: Derrick Rose, Caleb Martin
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Boston Celtics @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: TBD
Vegas Spread: Min -3.5
Starting with Boston, they got the news that Jaylen Brown will be out for the rest of the season while Robert Williams, Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum are all out here. Evan Fournier is likely going to be a premier play here today if he does suit up, as the Celtics will be very shorthanded. For the rest of this Celtics team, we’re really going to need news on who is actually playing and a starting lineup before I can really get too far into it, so keep an eye on the News Channel. From the Wolves, Karl-Anthony Towns isn’t a guy I’m afraid to get to here, I like playing guys that are going to play big minutes with little risk of being pulled early, and that’s pretty much all these Wolves players due to their record.. Anthony Edwards is a guy I’m going to keep getting interested in due to the number of shots and peripherals he’s able to rack up especially in a good matchup against this Celtics 2nd team. D’Angelo Russell is finally back in that starting five which helps secure his minutes, he’s coming off a nice game last time out and a guy I’ll have some exposure to in tournaments here. We can jump off Jarred Vanderbilt now that Jaden McDaniels is back, the minutes won’t be as secure as this frontcourt can run pretty deep with guys like Vanderbilt, McDaniels, Reid, and Hernangomez. Then you can round this team off with Ricky Rubio as a GPP guy but I don’t think you need to go there on a slate this big
5-star play: Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, Evan Fournier
4-star play: D’Angelo Russell, Ricky Rubio
Deeper Value: Celtics…TBD
GPP Sleeper: Celtics value…TBD
Phoenix Suns @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: TBD
Vegas Spread: TBD
Starting with the Suns, Devin Booker has done really well the past few games and the Spurs are horrible against guards, so you can play him with confidence today. You can get to both him and Chris Paul here, both have been really consistent as of late and flashing some big ceilings. DeAndre Ayton is probably a guy I’ll stay away from due to the matchup with Poeltl and he’s not exactly coming in in great form, so I’ll likely stay away from him on this slate. Then you can round this team out with Jae Crowder and Mikal Bridges as deep GPP guys in this one. Now for the Spurs, DeMar DeRozan has been a fine option as of late, but we really haven’t seen much of a ceiling from him and this game should be a slower one as well, with the Suns being a good defensive team. Jakob Poeltl has a nice price tag on DraftKings, but I think he’s a bit too high on FanDuel. He scored 28.5 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season. We got the full Keldon Johnson experience this week, he goes for 30+ fantasy points against the Bucks then drops a 9 spot on the Nets last night. The minutes just aren’t there for him for whatever reason right now. Lastly, Lonnie Walker is a solid value option if you need one, his minutes should be pretty secure with Derrick White out for the remainder of the season.
5-star play: Devin Booker, Chris Paul
4-star play: DeMar Derozan, Dejounte Murray, Jakob Poeltl, DeAndre Ayton
Deeper Value: Keldon Johnson, Lonnie Walker, Cam Payne
GPP Sleeper: Dario Saric
Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 231.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -2.5
From the Heat, Jimmy Butler comes into this one as questionable after having an eye injury last time out. If he plays he won’t be limited at all and gets a really nice price tag here at under $9k on DraftKings. Bam Adebayo has been solid as of late and the matchup here is fantastic as well. I don’t really think you need to get to him on this slate, but he can flash some upside every now and then. Tyler Herro had a huge game last time out and a guy I would go right back to should Butler end up sitting, more of a GPP guy if Butler plays, however. Then you can round this team out with guys like Kendrick Nunn and Goran Dragic in GPPs as filler guys. Now for the Bucks, they do still have a chance at the two seed if they win out and the Nets lose a game, they have the tiebreaker, so they do have incentive to win here. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been on a tear the past few games, and I really like him in this spot as it is a pace up game and he has the highest ceiling on the slate. They’re essentially keeping him fresh for the playoffs at this point, so I don’t think they really need to push him all that hard, but he’s an elite per-minute producer so a solid GPP option at the very least. I haven’t had a whole lot of interest in Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton as of late, they’re both really priced up. The matchup is a good one so I don’t hate them for tournaments, but I would prefer to get my exposure to them over on FanDuel where they’re both under $8k. Donte DiVincenzo has continued to look good though, he’s a guy I would think they want to get on the right track heading into the playoffs and so far so good on him, I’m good with him in tournaments considering the matchup. Then you can round this team out with GPP guys in Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez. Lopez will see more minutes but Portis has been more productive on a per-minute basis.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday
Deeper Value: Brook Lopez, Kendrick Nunn, Tyler Herro
GPP Sleeper: Tyler Herro
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