Derby Day is definitely the most hallowed of horseracing days. Post time is 6:57p and features 19 horses running the iconic Churchill Downs track. Essential Quality is the morning favorite and has a perfect 5-0 record entering today; expectations are high from trainer Brad Cox (seeking his first Kentucky Derby win).
Horse racing and betting gurus Treyj989 and Ryan28 dive in and share their thoughts, wins, and longshots for you today through a simple Kentucky Derby betting guide.
Join our FREE Discord Room at Sportsbetarmy and ask them your questions. Both gurus are available to help you make the sharpest bets possible and turn a profit. Ryan’s picks went 7-3 yesterday and he has posted today’s picks for you already…
Kentucky Derby Horses to Win
14 – Essential Quality (2/1)
9 – Hot Rod Charlie (8/1)
1 – Known Agenda (6/1)
17 – Highly Motivated (10/1)
15 – Rock Your World (5/1)
Next tier
20 – Bourbonic (30/1)
Underneath Exotics – Filling exactas and trifectas
19 – Soup and Sandwich (30/1)
13 – Hidden Stash (50/1)
Kentucky Derby Thoughts and Pick Strategies
So everyone knows the 14 Essential Quality is the class of the field and won’t surprise anyone by winning, but there are some other runners that can challenge if they get the right trip. Finding value underneath the chalky favorite helps hedge bets as well as boost ROI if the favorite falters. Assembling a full card of horses can be a very entertaining way to watch a major race like the Kentucky Derby.
9 Hot Rod Charlie – this horse has really been trying to find his racing style and where he fits best so he may go a little overlooked but his last race out in a pretty tough Louisiana Derby showed he does well on the lead and given his post, I think we see him jump out early and run up near the early pace. He pretty much ran wire to wire at 1 3/16 mile with plenty down the stretch. Love to see that heading into the derby.
1 Known Agenda – won the Florida Derby which has produced many a derby champion. If you didn’t watch the Kentucky Oaks day races yesterday, we have seen that late speed can jump in there and make some real noise late. We know this horse has the speed and ability. It also helps having the best jockey in the world on your back. Expect to see a late charge… if he can navigate some traffic.
17 Highly Motivated – this horse gave Essential Quality a serious run for the money in the bluegrass and has shown excellent speed figures. Morning line odds are 10/1, but I fully expect the odds to come down (so, betting this horse early might yield box office value if the line predictably moves lower…get the best pricing now). The horse continues to mature nicely, and I would be shocked if you don’t at least see this horse in the money. If he takes another step forward, look out!
15 Rock Your World – this horse should set the pace. He only just moved off the turf to win the Santa Anita Derby and a ticket to the Kentucky Derby. Despite only 1 dirt race, we can see this horse has a ton of speed and will make it tough on the rest of the field. While it is tough to go wire to wire in a 1.25 mile race we have seen it happen the last 2 years and speed is king at Churchill. Even though the only competition this horse has run into was medina spirit, I believe it has enough pace to be a considered threat.
Those horses are ones I would consider win bets on and will be in my exotic bets, as well.
Longer Shots and Undercard Horses
These next horses are ones I want to consider only for exotic bets. Those are your trifecta and superfecta type bets. Mostly, I would use them in the 3rd and 4th spots with the exception of this first horse.
20 Bourbonic – this horse got in by winning the Wood at 72-1. He is a late runner so don’t expect to really hear his name until you get to the stretch. He has a big late kick and he starts at the outside. For this horse to do well, he would need zero traffic to get into the best position to strike and that’s exactly what he gets today by starting on the outside. What a great post draw! There are a lot of horses that are speed horses that don’t match the big speed horses in Essential Quality and Highly Motivated and that could mean some easier passing for Bourbonic as those horses might get saved for future endeavors. Closers find their way into the bottom of exotics. It’s just how this race works. I wouldn’t rule out a 2nd if things go really well.
19 Soup and Sandwich – this horse is labelled a “presser” for how close to the pace it sits, but what he does really well is conserve that energy for stretch where he has a big kick. He lost the Florida Derby to known agenda by 2 3/4 lengths. That is not a bad loss and deserves some consideration, especially since he can threaten just about any race he desires.
13 Hidden Stash – this is a late addition for me. On the surface, this horse looks like he doesn’t belong and he might not. But, if you look at his workouts prior to April 3rd (Bluegrass Stakes), they weren’t good. He was, however, able to push through for some solid results. After the Bluegrass, though, this horse has had some quality workouts. This tells me the horse could be ready to make a jump and he is a closer. I’m really only expecting him to maybe find that 3rd or 4th spot, but he would do so at a big price.
How To Construct Your Kentucky Derby Bets:
First, assess how much you wish to spend on the derby. It can get expensive fast. The more horses you bring in, the more expensive it gets. But, the reward is like no other race on the calendar.
If you want to make win bets or exactas (top 2), I would bet as few or as many of those first 5 horses. 14 is the chalk but those others have value at bigger prices. If you do bet the exacta, I suggest boxing your bet to remove variance. “Boxing” just means that as long as the top 2 horses are from your pool that you bet then you win. It doesn’t matter what order they finish. A straight exacta bet you would have to get the order right. Boxing is more expensive as it includes all combinations of the horses you select so keep that in mind.
If you want to do trifectas and supers for the big payout:
I suggest doing only what you can afford to box. I can’t tell you how many times I have crafted a trifecta or a super and the literal only scenario that could make my bet lose, turns out to be what transpires. Those closers are listed in my preferred order, and I can say that closers typically find their way in there in the end. Not always, but typically. You can add 1 or add them all.
Feel free to tag me or Ryan with questions about bets, these horses, or other horses we didn’t mention. We will be around all day!
Ryan’s results yesterday, April 30th:
Ryan’s Picks for Churchill Downs Today…
Ryan is much simpler, but does his explaining/teaching in our Discord Channel (don’t forget to jump in today!).
If you are a beginner, that’s fine. If you are an experienced horseracing enthusiast, we want your opinions, too. At DFS Army and SportsBetArmy, we help each other equally so everyone gains an edge.
Churchill Races: May 1, 2021
Race 1- 4,9,6,7….already a winner!
Race 2- 1,10,8,12
Race 3- 4,7,10,8
Race 4- 4,12,1,6
Race 5- 2,5,11,3
Race 6- 6,5,4,2
Race 7- 4,3,2
Race 8- 8,3,6,12
Race 9- 13,1,2,6
Race 10- 9,1,2,5
Race 11- 3,9,5,6
Race 12- 9,14,17,15,1
Alright guys these are my plays for the day. Ask me any questions as the day goes on. These are pinned to go back and look at. Doubles, win bets, exactas. Whatever is best for you.
If you want to know how to play these suggestions, you need to join the rooms and ask Ryan directly. He will explain, but he takes a very systematic approach with his win picks, exacta boxes, and even the occasional longshot when he finds a horse 50/1 or better near post time. Join the fun!!
