NBA DFS Slate Breakdown Strategy, Picks, and Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Apr. 6th, 2021

NBA DFS Strategy starts with a quality slate breakdown full of tips, picks, plays and strategy. Join MadnessDFS as he...

NBA DFS Slate Breakdown Strategy, Picks, and Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Apr. 6th, 2021

Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 4/6:

Mar 16, 2018; Nashville, TN, USA; Missouri Tigers forward Michael Porter Jr. (13) controls the ball against Florida State Seminoles guard Terance Mann (14) during the first half in the first round of the 2018 NCAA Tournament at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!

I want to give a quick shoutout to VIP Member “TheSoprano12” on their $100,000 win earlier this season!! Better go buy a Boban jersey after that one!

Chicago Bulls @ Indiana Pacers

Vegas Total: 224.5

Vegas Spread: Ind -1.0

We’ll kick this slate off with the Bulls, they’re just not a team I’m getting all that much of as of late with the acquisition of Nikola Vucevic. That being said, the price on Vuc and LaVine has come down a nice amount. It’s a really small sample size (86 minutes to be exact), but Zach LaVine has just 0.78 fantasy points per minute with Vuc on the court. Obviously, this will come up but it just goes to show that he’s going to take a bit of a production hit. Thad Young continues to produce nicely and his price isn’t all that bad, but I don’t love the matchup. Lastly, Lauri Markkanen is really cheap here but he’s also been pretty volatile as of late. He’s been held under 15 DraftKings points in two straight games, but man that price tag is intriguing. From the Pacers side, we’ll need some news before we can break this one down fully. Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon come into this one as questionable so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding their status. I like the price on both of them if they end up playing. Caris LeVert is coming off a 51 point fantasy outing last time out, I’m good with going back to him if one of these guys sits. Lastly, Myles Turner has been serviceable as of late, but he’s more of a filler, GPP guy.

5-star play: None

4-star play: Domantas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Thad Young, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, Caris LeVert, Myles Turner

New Orleans Pelicans @ Atlanta Hawks

Vegas Total: 225.5

Vegas Spread: Atl -3.0

Starting with the Pelicans, Lonzo Ball returned to action last game while Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram remain questionable. The price on Ball here is a large one but if those two end up missing again you can go right back to him coming off a 52.5 DraftKings outing. Eric Bledsoe has been pretty consistent as of late and getting huge minutes, with Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Josh Hart out, this should continue. James Johnson has continued to look great as well, he’s got at least 28 DraftKings points in three straight, but I would want one of Zion, Ingram, maybe Steven Adams to be out for him to be viable at this price tag. Lastly, it sounds like newly signed Isaiah Thomas will make his Pelicans debut tonight, I don’t think you can play him at this price tag… maybe if he was like $2k cheaper. Although the more I look at it… he may get forced into some decent run with NAW, Hart, and Kira Lews all out tonight, flyer option at best. From the Hawks, Trae Young returned last game to play 28 minutes, I would expect those to get back over 30 here. The price tag did come down on him so I think he’s a viable option for GPPs at the very least. Clint Capela continues to crush with John Collins out, he has at least 43 DraftKings points in three straight games and gets a solid matchup again here. We saw Bogdan Bogdanovic come down to Earth last game, but the minutes were still there on him. I wish he was a little cheaper, but he’s a fine GPP guy with Young back. Danilo Gallinari has at least 36 DraftKings points in two straight games and benefits a good deal with Collins out, he’s more of a GPP guy for me though, I do like the matchup, however. Lastly, guys like Kevin Huerter and Lou Williams are fine GPP options but nobody I’m prioritizing.

***The below is assuming Zion/Ingram are out***

5-star play: Lonzo Ball, Trae Young, Clint Capela

4-star play: Eric Bledsoe, James Johnson

Deeper Value: Naji Marshall

GPP Sleeper: Isaiah Thomas, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Danilo Gallinari, Kevin Huerter, Lou Williams

Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics

Vegas Total: 223.0

Vegas Spread: Phi -1.5

Starting with the Sixers, Joel Embiid should be a go here, he played 29 minutes in his first game back so I like his chances of getting his full minutes back here. If that’s the case, his price tag is too cheap considering the matchup. The Celtics are going to struggle inside even with the emergence of Robert Williams, he’s an awesome play if we hear he’s no longer limited. Ben Simmons just has not been good as of late, maybe Embiid coming back helps him, but I won’t be paying this price tag for him. Tobias Harris will see his production go down a bit with Embiid back, so I think we can wait for his price to come down a bit as well. The same can be said for Dwight Howard who will move back to the bench. Then the trio of Danny Green, Shake Milton, and Seth Curry are all GPP flyers at best if they can get hot from the field. From the Celtics, Jaylen Brown played just 26 minutes last time out but it was a pretty large blowout, the price is a bit down on him but it’s a really tough matchup. Jayson Tatum has been pretty consistent as of late but the price on him has come up a bit, and again, I don’t love the matchup enough to want to force him in. Kemba Walker continues to look solid, but I just don’t see the upside at this price range, I don’t see him going out there and dropping a 45-50 point game with consistency. Robert Williams has been great since getting this starting center job, he has at least 32 DraftKings points in five straight games, but he will have his hands full in this one trying to battle with Embiid down low. Evan Fournier looked solid again last game going for 33 DraftKings points in just 22 minutes, you can make a case for him in tournaments. Lastly, Marcus Smart is a solid last piece for all formats at this price tag.

5-star play: Joel Embiid (If he’s not limited)

4-star play: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Robert Williams, Kemba Walker

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Danny Green, Shake Milton, Seth Curry, Marcus Smart, Evan Fournier

Los Angeles Lakers @ Toronto Raptors

Vegas Total: 215.5

Vegas Spread: Tor -2.5

Starting with the Lakers, Kyle Kuzma should continue to see heavy minutes while LeBron and Davis are out, the Raptors are sneaky bad against opposing power forwards as well. Montrezl Harrell bounced back nicely last time out and is a solid GPP option yet again here. Andre Drummond comes into this one as questionable and could hurt his minutes a bit, so keep an eye on his status. Dennis Schroder had a stinker last time out going for just 23.75 DraftKings points, I don’t think I like the pace of this one enough to have much interest in him. Other than that, I guess you can take a shot on Markieff Morris, but it’s basically just those three for me. From the Raptors, Fred VanVleet missed yesterday’s game as we saw DeAndre Bembry and Malachi Flynn fill in nicely for him, if he’s out again you can go right back to these guys. Pascal Siakam had a dud last night, but I’m willing to overlook it if VanVleet misses. Gary Trent Jr. was another guy that had a down night but has at least 40 DraftKings points in two of his last three games. Lastly, Chris Boucher started as well but saw just 20 minutes in a great matchup, he’s a risky GPP option. I should touch on VanVleet, if he’s a go you can go to him here as well with Kyle Lowry continued to be out.

***The below assumes Fred VanVleet is out***

5-star play: DeAndre Bembry, Malachi Flynn

4-star play: Kyle Kuzma, Montrezll Harrell, Pascal Siakam

Deeper Value: DeAndre Bembry, Malachi Flynn

GPP Sleeper: Dennis Schroder, Markieff Morris, Chris Boucher, Gary Trent Jr.

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Memphis Grizzlies @ Miami Heat

Vegas Total: 217.0

Vegas Spread: Mia -5.0

Starting with the Grizzlies, Ja Morant has been really up and down as of late, which hurts him as a cash game guy. I’ll leave him for GPPs due to the volatility and the tough matchup. Jonas Valanciunas has been in great form as of late, it’s not exactly the greatest matchup with Bam and company but he’s pretty matchup-proof and carries a huge ceiling. Dillon Brooks was pretty solid last time out and could see a few extra minutes with De’Anthony Melton out and Brandon Clarke coming in as questionable. The same can be said for Kyle Andreson, he has at least 30 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. From the Heat, Jimmy Butler has at least 42 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and has a nice price point in this one to go along with a nice matchup. Bam Adebayo has been solid as well, he has at least 41 DraftKings points in three of his last four, he also scored 41 fantasy points in this matchup earlier this season. Victor Oladipo hasn’t looked all that great in his Miami career (two games), he’s going to have to share the usage with Bam, Jimmy, and the rest of these guys in the backcourt, so I think I’ll wait for that price tag to come down a little more. Then I think you can lump the three of Tyler Herro, Goran Dragic, and Duncan Robinson all into the tournament options category. I will say, Duncan Robinson is in great form, he’s shooting lights out.

5-star play: Jimmy Butler

4-star play: Ja Morant, Jonas Valanciunas, Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson, Bam Adebayo

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Kyle Anderson, Tyler Herro, Goran Dragic, Duncan Robinson

Detroit Pistons @ Denver Nuggets

Vegas Total: 215

Vegas Spread: Den -13

Starting with the Pistons, we should get Mason Plumlee back here after he was out yesterday. However, I don’t know how much interest I’ll have in him, he feels like someone they’re going to take it easy on during this final stretch of games. We’ve seen his minutes trend in the wrong direction as of late, I think we can find better options. Jerami Grant looked solid last night in short-run due to a blowout, this is a tougher matchup and a low implied total, again I think we can do better. Outside of those two, I really don’t have any interest in this Pistons team with everyone available. They are running really deep right now which kills pretty much all the fantasy value here. From the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic should do whatever he wants in this one, my main concern is a blowout, I don’t see how the Pistons keep this one close. That said, the Nuggets surprised us last game by letting the Magic hang around, so he’s a solid GPP option at the very least. Jamal Murray continues to play huge minutes but I don’t love the price tag, of course, he has a huge ceiling but the floor isn’t there for me to want to play him in cash at this price. Michael Porter Jr. continues to be a very consistent option, ever since the all-star break you can basically pencil him in for 30+ DraftKings points. Aaron Gordon followed up his 40 point fantasy night with a 39 point night last time out. I’m still going to consider him a GPP option as he is one of the last options on this team when Murray, Jokic, and Porter Jr. are on the court. Lastly, Will Barton is in that same GPP boat, no issue with getting to him here.

5-star play: Nikola Jokic

4-star play: Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr.

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Jerami Grant, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Will Barton

Milwaukee Bucks @ Golden State Warriors

Vegas Total: 234.5

Vegas Spread: Mil -6.5

Starting with the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo scored just 37.75 DraftKings points in this spot earlier in the season but he played just 26 minutes due to a blowout. He should do what he wants here and is an elite raw option. Jrue Holiday enters this game in great form, he has at least 47 DraftKings points in four straight games and has a good shot at keeping it up in a good matchup. His price has come up, but it’s certainly warranted. Khris Middleton put up 50 fantasy points in this spot earlier this season in just 25 minutes, I have no issue going right back to him here. Donte DiVincenzo is coming off a 40 point fantasy game last time out against the Kings, you can get to him here as well but he would be more of a tournament option due to the volatility he comes with. Between Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis I would want Portis in GPP and Lopez in cash, Portis has a huge ceiling but the minutes will fluctuate. From the Warriors, Steph Curry struggled in this spot a bit earlier this season, it’s a nice-paced game so I like getting to him at sub-$10k. The price on Andrew Wiggins has come down to a more playable level, he’s still more of a tournament option, but I do like this game environment for him. Draymond Green has at least 44 DraftKings points in two straight games and his production is night and day with Curry on the floor. As long as Curry is out there I’ll have interest in him. Lastly, Kelly Oubre Jr. is a solid GPP option as well, but he needs to be knocking down shots to get you there.

5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Steph Curry

4-star play: Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, Donte DiVincenzo, Kelly Oubre Jr., Andrew Wiggins

MLB is upon us! DFSArmy VIP Members had a big season last year and are in for some big things again this season! We will have cheat sheets, breakdowns, and many other tools to help make you successful in one of the more volatile fantasy sports.

Portland Trailblazers @ Los Angeles Clippers

Vegas Total: 229.5

Vegas Spread: Lac -5.5

Starting with the Blazers, Damian Lillard struggled in this matchup earlier this season and with CJ back his production will come down a bit. That said, his price has come down as well, he’s in play for GPPs due to his ability to take over a game. Speaking of CJ McCollum, he’s been in great form since returning from injury, he’s a solid play yet again here. It looks like Jusuf Nurkic is going to miss this game so the minutes on Enes Kanter should come up, I’m good with him here as the Clippers can get beat down low. Then you can round this team out with GPP options in Norman Powell and Robert Covington. From the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard is in great form and dropped 51 DraftKings points on the Blazers earlier this season. Or, you can take the savings on Paul George who also had a 50 burger on the Blazers this season, they’re both great options against this bad defensive Blazers team. I do like going right back to Ivica Zubac tonight, his production has come down as of late, but the minutes are still there. With Nurkic out, Kanter is not a good defender. Then you can round this team out with GPP guys like Marcus Morris, Terance Mann, and Reggie Jackson.

5-star play: Kawhi Leonard, Paul George

4-star play: Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Enes Kanter, Ivica Zubac

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Robert Covington, Norman Powell, Marcus Morris, Terance Mann, Reggie Jackson

NBA Lock of the Day: Cheat Sheets

We’re waiting on some pretty substantial injury news with teams like the Pelicans and Pacers that will change the way we look at the slate, so I’m going to keep the lock of the day for VIP Members so grab that promo code below and come join us! The lock of the day in our Cheat Sheets/Coaches Notes for tonight, as we know news tends to pop up out of nowhere on these big slates, come join us! These notes include a Core, player ranks, and tiers notes, so come check them out! Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your lock predictions and if your player gets over 5x tonight I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

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Editor’s Note – However, if you are more interested in simply betting the games, NBA is full of crazy action.  And, our dynamic modeling over at SportsBetArmy adjusts in real time to help identify Vegas inaccuracies you can exploit.  Follow Ryan, Anthony, and Statsational for models and coaching advice that help you build any bankroll for any sport…

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Written byMadnessDFS

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