Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 4/2:

Jan 12, 2018; University Park, PA, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers forward Isaiah Roby (15) drives the ball to the basket as Penn State Nittany Lions forward Lamar Stevens (11) defends during overtime at Bryce Jordan Center. Penn State defeated Nebraska 76-74 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
I want to give a quick shoutout to VIP Member “TheSoprano12” on their $100,000 win earlier this season!! Better go buy a Boban jersey after that one!
Golden State Warriors @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
We’ll kick this slate off with the Warriors, Steph Curry has returned from injury and appears to be off any restriction he might have been on. He scored at least 51 DraftKings points in back-to-back games since returning. Andrew Wiggins is priced up but he has at least 46 DraftKings points in three of his last four games, I just can’t stomach this tag on him. Draymond Green is much worse when Curry is off the court, so he’s a welcome sight for Green. Kelly Oubre Jr. is more of a GPP option in hopes he can get hot from the field, right there with James Wiseman who struggled last game but is going to be volatile this season, so it’s to be expected. From the Raptors, Kyle Lowry is going to miss this game, so we can run some numbers with him off the court:
- Fred VanVleet – 31.2% usage rate; 1.3 fpm
- Chris Boucher – 21.6% usage rate; 1.24 fpm
- Pascal Siakam – 26.1% usage rate; 1.12 fpm
- OG Anunoby – 22.5% usage rate; 0.95 fpm
The thing I love about the Raptors is we know they’re going to play huge minutes, other than Boucher of course but we know the volatility that comes with him. Guys like VanVleet, Siakam, and Anunoby are all solid options in a great matchup.
5-star play: Steph Curry
4-star play: Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Andrew Wiggins, Kelly Oubre Jr., Chris Boucher
Houston Rockets @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Rockets, we’ll need to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on John Wall who comes into this one as questionable. I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s in for the sake of this article. As long as he’s not limited, he’s a solid option here with a good one-on-one matchup with Kemba on the other side of this one. Christian Wood hasn’t been all that great lately, being held under 40 DraftKings points in four straight games. We know the upside is there on him and it’s a pretty solid matchup for a big man, so I’m good with him in GPPs. Kevin Porter Jr. had a nice game last time out, but I would prefer him much more if Wall were to sit. Jae’sean Tate isn’t a guy I get to all that much because I don’t think he has any legit upside, but he’s been a fine cash option. Lastly, Kelly Olynyk and Danual House Jr. looked good last game, I would have more interest in House, as he’s the starter for the Rockets. From the Celtics, Jaylen Brown looked solid last game and gets a great matchup here with the Rockets who are really struggling right now, he’s a solid option under $8k on DraftKings. Jayson Tatum has at least 45 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and is a solid option here as well, he should do what he wants in this one. Kemba Walker continues to look solid, but I just don’t see the upside at this price range, I don’t see him going out there and dropping a 45-50 point game with consistency. Robert Williams missed their last game but appears like he’s off the injury report tonight, so you can go right back to him in a great matchup. Evan Fournier might be the worst player in Celtics history if he retired today, he’s played a total of 64 minutes with them and has a total of 23 DraftKings points, he’s going to need to prove it to me before I pay nearly $6k for him. Lastly, Marcus Smart is a solid last piece for all formats at this price tag.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum
4-star play: John Wall, Christian Wood, Kevin Porter Jr., Danuel House Jr., Jaylen Brown, Robert Williams, Kemba Walker
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jae’sean Tate, Kelly Olynyk, Marcus Smart, Evan Fournier
Dallas Mavericks @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 213.5
Vegas Spread: Dal -5.5
Starting with the Mavericks, as always, it’s the Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis show for me again from this team. Doncic bounced back last game going for 53 DraftKings points, he should do what he wants in this one, he’s an elite raw option as usual. Kristaps Porzingis has been on a roll lately, picking up the “slack” for Doncic. He has at least 42 DraftKings points in four straight games. With Mitchell Robinson no longer on the inside, it’ll be up to Randle and Nerlens Noel to try and stop the unicorn. Outside of these two, it’s really just Josh Richardson and Tim Hardaway as deeper GPP guys. From the Knicks, both Derrick Rose and RJ Barrett come into this one as questionable, I’ll operate under the assumption that they play for now. Julius Randle bounced back last game against the Wolves and gets a solid matchup here as well, the Mavs have struggled to protect the interior all season long. RJ Barrett has at least 33 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and is a fine GPP option. Alec Burks saw his minutes come down with Bullock and Rose back last game so he’s overpriced right now. Derrick Rose feels like he’ll continue to be in that 25-30 minute range as he works to get his conditioning back and is a solid secondary option at sub-$5k. Lastly, with Mitchell Robinson hurt again you can go right back to Nerlens Noel as the center of this team, he’ll likely see around 30 minutes again.
5-star play: Luka Doncic, Julius Randle
4-star play: Kristaps Porzigins, RJ Barrett, Derrick Rose, Nerlens Noel
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Josh Richardson, Tim Hardaway Jr., RJ Barrett
Charlotte Hornets @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Hornets, Malik Monk left their last game with a foot injury and is questionable here, I’m going to assume he’s out which should lead to some more minutes for other guys in this second unit, and maybe the starters just get forced into a few more minutes as well. Terry Rozier is averaging 33.6 DraftKings points per game against the Pacers in two games this season. I can’t say I love the price tag however, I don’t see myself getting all that much of him. Outside of Gordon Hayward’s 50 point game against the Nets, he’s been held under 30 DraftKings points in four of their last five games and is priced up as well. If I were to go to anyone here it would be Devonte’ Graham who gets a discount from these other guys, he played just 21 minutes last game due to the blowout but had been really consistent leading up to that one. PJ Washington and Miles Bridges are more GPP options than anything. From the Pacers, the big news here is Domantas Sabonis comes in as questionable. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, as I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s in here. He’s averaging 50 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Hornets this season. Malcolm Brogdon had a dud last time out but is averaging 43.1 DraftKings points per game against the Hornets on the season, with the emergence of Caris LeVert we might expect that to come down a bit, however. Myles Turner is more of a GPP guy in hopes he can rack up some blocks and knock down some threes in the mid-tier center range. Lastly, TJ McConnell makes sense as a last piece in, but not a guy I’ll be prioritizing.
5-star play: Domantas Sabonis
4-star play: Devonte’ Graham, Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, Myles Turner, TJ McConnell
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Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 231.5
Vegas Spread: Mem -7.0
Starting with the Wolves, Karl-Anthony Towns scored 52.5 DraftKings points in this spot earlier in the season and has at least 53 fantasy points in four straight games. He’s playing a ton of minutes and makes for a great spend-up option. Anthony Edwards continues to put up big numbers and it doesn’t seem like Malik Beasley returning is going to harm him all that much. Speaking of Beasley, he played 30 minutes in his three games back but appears a little rusty, he’s a fine GPP option but I don’t love the pace of this one. Lastly, it’s really just Ricky Rubio that I would have interest in for tournaments but that about does it from this game. One last thing on the Wolves, Jaden McDaniels has played at least 33 minutes in four straight games and has produced nicely if you’re looking for a wing in that price range. From the Grizzlies, Ja Morant bounced back last time out in a tough matchup against the Jazz, this is a much better matchup against a bad defensive team. I like his upside here. Jonas Valanciunas dropped a 50 burger in this one earlier this season, the Wolves are not good against opposing big men so you can go right back to the well on him here. Dillon Brooks has been solid as of late, but I probably won’t get there all that much on a big slate. With this Grayson Allen questionable and Justise Winslow out it does open up a few more wing minutes to bring guys like Kyle Anderson and Brandon Clarke in to play, but I think we might be reaching at that point due to the size of the slate.
5-star play: Karl-Anthony Towns, Ja Morant, Jonas Valanciunas
4-star play: Anthony Edwards, Dillon Brooks
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Malik Beasley, Ricky Rubio, Jaden McDaniels, Kyle Anderson, Brandon Clarke
Chicago Bulls @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 222.5
Vegas Spread: Tor -7.5
Starting with the Bulls, Nikola Vucevic dropped 49.5 DraftKings points last time out, but LaVine and White missed that game so there was more usage to go around. They both come into this game as questionable, if they miss I think you can go back to Vuc here in a tough matchup due to the price tag. Zach LaVine feels very questionable here as he nurses an ankle injury, so keep an eye on the status of him. If he’s to miss, Vucevic would be more in play along with Coby White in particular as he would soak up more usage in this offense, he’s also questionable, however, so clearly a spot where we’ll need some news. Thad Young looked good last game and is a guy you can go to as well if these guys are out, but if they play I think there are better spots on this slate as he battles for minutes with guys like Vuc and news acquired Daniel Theis. We’ll need some news from the Jazz side as well, with Donovan Mitchell missing the last game and is now questionable for this game for personal reasons. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s out again. Jordan Clarkson and Mike Conley would be my favorite options again here if he is to miss. They both had great games last time out and would see a boost again here in a good matchup. Rudy Gobert dropped 56 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season, but it’s not exactly the same matchup anymore with Vuc in there. He does see a slight boost with Mitchell off the court, I just never play Gobert for some reason. Then guys like Joe Ingles, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Royce O’Neale should see some extra opportunity as well and make sense at their price tags.
***The below is without the Bulls as we wait on their news and assumes Donovan Mitchell is out***
5-star play: Jordan Clarkson, Mike Conley, Rudy Gobert
4-star play: Bojan Bogdanovic, Joe Ingles, Royce O’Neale
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Bojan Bogdanovic, Joe Ingles, Royce O’Neale
Atlanta Hawks @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Hawks, let’s run some data with John Collins being ruled out for this one, I ran it with De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish off the court as well:
- Danilo Gallinari – 23.2% usage rate; 0.96 fpm
- Clint Capela – 19.5% usage rate; 1.31 fpm
- Trae Young – 42.4% usage rate; 1.61 fpm
These would be the three guys I would have the most interest in here with some sprinkles of Kevin Huerter and Lou Williams. Those numbers on Trae Young and Clint Capela are really intriguing considering how nice the matchup is as well. From the Pelicans, there really isn’t much we can do with this team until we get news on them. Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and Lonzo Ball are all listed as questionable after missing yesterday’s game. The bench filled in really nicely for them as well and would be great plays again here… so be sure to check out that Breaking News Feed for news and updates on who sees the biggest boost on this team when we find out who is in and who’s out.
5-star play: Clint Capela, Trae Young
4-star play: Kevin Huerter, Danilo Gallinari
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Lou Williams, Danilo Gallinari
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Los Angeles Lakers @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 222.5
Vegas Spread: Sac -4.5
Starting with the Lakers, Kyle Kuzma should continue to see heavy minutes while LeBron and Davis are out, he’s a solid option in a pace-up spot for the Lakers. Montrezl Harrell has at least 40 DraftKings points in two of his last three games and is a solid option here as well with Andre Drummond already expected to miss time for this team. The same can be said for Dennis Schroder, he has at least 40 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and is a guy that we know can push the ball up and down the court. Other than that, I guess you can take a shot on Markieff Morris, but it’s basically just those three for me. From the Kings, De’Aaron Fox came down to Earth last game, but his price dropped on DraftKings as well, I have no issue going right back to him in tournaments at the very least. Richaun Holmes continues to play great and this Lakers frontcourt is in shambles, he’s a solid option. Buddy Hield and Harrison Barnes are solid options as well, they’re going to play big minutes and have been nice producers this season. Barnes comes in with the better form if you want to ride each other’s hot streaks. Lastly, Tyrese Haliburton is a strong play in all formats due to his ceiling/floor combo.
5-star play: De’Aaron Fox
4-star play: Kyle Kuzma, Montrezl Harrell, Dennis Schroder, Richaun Holmes, Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes, Tyrese Haliburton
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Markieff Morris
Milwaukee Bucks @ Portland Trailblazers
Vegas Total: 236.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -3.5
Starting with the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo looked better last game but was still held under 50 DraftKings points. This is a much better matchup overall and will be a nice bounce-back spot for him. I don’t love the price tag on Khris Middleton but it’s a fast-paced game and I expect there to be a lot of scoring in this one with an implied total up near 240. Jrue Holiday has at least 47 DraftKings points in two straight games and the Blazers are at the bottom of the league in defense against opposing point guards on the season. Then you can get to Brook Lopez and Donte DiVincenzo as tournament options. I would want Bobby Portis to be out to go to Lopez due to how bad he has been as of late. Pat Connaughton would be another guy I want some GPP exposure to if Portis misses due to the implied total in this game. From the Blazers, Damian Lillard’s price tag is going in the right direction, with CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic returning we knew his production would decrease. I wish he was slightly cheaper yet, but I’m okay with him in GPPs at this price after he dropped 58 on the Pistons last time out. McCollum seems to have gone back to the production that we were seeing from him before he was injured. The minutes will continue to be huge on him, he’s a great play. Norman Powell is going to have to share usage with these two guys so I’ll have a hard time pay this price on him on a big slate. The same can be said for Enes Kanter who went back to the bench as Jusuf Nurkic drew the start last game. I would prefer to spend money on Nurkic in hopes he has an elite point-per-minute game, but just know the minutes will be limited on him.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Damian Lillard
4-star play: Khris Middleton, Donte DiVincenzo, CJ McCollum
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Brook Lopez, Pat Connaughton, Norman Powell, Jusuf Nurkic, Robert Covington
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 219.5
Vegas Spread: Pho -12.5
Talk about an ugly game to end the slate on, we’ll start with the Thunder. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to be out for a while and it sounds like Al Horford’s time with the Thunder may be done. That means it’s Moses Brown time! He just agreed to a multi-year deal with the Thunder, so it’s clear they want to commit to him as their big man moving forward. He has at least 30 minutes in five straight games and should be their starting center moving forward. The price has come way up on him which makes him more of a secondary option for me but we know the ceiling is there on him and I like the matchup against DeAndre Ayton as well. Aleksej Pokusevski has put up some big games as of late, but he’s going to be volatile so he’s more of a GPP guy, he’ll see his assist equity pick up with SGA out, however. Lastly, the backcourt is mostly GPP guys as well with Theo Maledon and Kenrich Williams picking up the slack. From the Suns, they have a similar story as the Jazz, I don’t love getting to this team when they’re fully healthy. It is a nice matchup so you can look toward the big three in tournaments in Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and DeAndre Ayton, but these ancillary guys are more of GPP flyers than anything on a big slate.
5-star play: Moses Brown
4-star play: Isaiah Roby, Theo Maledon, Kenrich Williams, Devin Booker, Chris Paul, DeAndre Ayton
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Aleksej Pokusevski, Devin Booker, Chris Paul, DeAndre Ayton
NBA Lock of the Day: Cheat Sheets
We’re waiting on some pretty substantial injury news with teams like the Pelicans and Bulls that will change the way we look at the slate, so I’m going to keep the lock of the day for VIP Members so grab that promo code below and come join us! The lock of the day in our Cheat Sheets/Coaches Notes for tonight, as we know news tends to pop up out of nowhere on these big slates, come join us! These notes include a Core, player ranks, and tiers notes, so come check them out! Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your lock predictions and if your player gets over 5x tonight I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!
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