NBA DFS Slate Breakdown Strategy, Picks, and Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Apr. 27th, 2021

NBA DFS Strategy starts with a quality slate breakdown full of tips, picks, plays and strategy. Join MadnessDFS as he...

NBA DFS Slate Breakdown Strategy, Picks, and Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Apr. 27th, 2021

Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 4/27:

Feb 12, 2020; Athens, Georgia, USA; Georgia Bulldogs guard Anthony Edwards (5) looks to dunk the ball against the South Carolina Gamecocks during the second half at Stegeman Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!

I want to give a quick shoutout to VIP Member “TheSoprano12” on their $100,000 win earlier this season!! Better go buy a Boban jersey after that one!

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics

Vegas Total: 215.5

Vegas Spread: Bos -10.5

We’ll kick the slate off with the Thunder, the only real injury news we have here is that Tony Bradley and Lu Dort are questionable otherwise we should be set to roll. If Dort does play, I have no issue going back to him here, he’s shooting a ton while he’s in there. Darius Bazley has looked pretty good over his last handful of games, but I like the price tag much better on DraftKings. Theo Maledon has been pretty uninteresting but on a six-game slate, he makes for a fine filler option. Moses Brown has seemingly disappeared since signing that multi-year contract with the Thunder, he’s a deep MME guy for just because we know the ceiling is there somewhere. Isaiah Roby has been grabbing some of those Brown minutes and has looked pretty good as of late, I would rather take the chance on him and he doesn’t use up a center spot. From Boston, it sounds like Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker will be out for this one, so let’s run some data with them off the court this season:

  • Jaylen Brown – 37.7% usage rate; 1.34 fpm
  • Payton Pritchard – 16.3% usage rate; 0.82 fpm
  • Marcus Smart – 23.2% usage rate; 0.92 fpm

The sample size on Evan Fournier isn’t big enough, but he’s not really getting his full minutes right now either, so more of a GPP guy in hopes those minutes come up. I do like Jaylen Brown quite a bit and Marcus Smart is right below him, however. Lastly, Robert Williams is around 1.3 fantasy points per minute with those guys off the court, but he’s questionable as well after being banged up lately.

5-star play: Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart

4-star play: Darius Bazley, Lu Dort, Isaiah Roby

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Theo Maledon, Moses Brown, Robert Williams

Milwaukee Bucks @ Charlotte Hornets

Vegas Total: 223.0

Vegas Spread: Mil -9.0

Starting with the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo has bounced back as of late and scored 70+ fantasy points against the Hornets earlier this season, he’s an elite raw play on a short slate here. Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton will go back to the backseat now that Giannis seems like he’s fully back, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing, they both are still solid plays especially on a six-game slate. Then the trio of Brook Lopez, Donte DiVincenzo, and Bobby Portis are GPP guys that you can get to here, but nobody that I’m making a priority. If you really want to get wild for GPPs, Pat Connaughton as well, but we’ve gotten enough value to open up over the past few weeks that I doubt we’ll need him here. From the Hornets, Terry Rozier is generally a guy that kills the Bucks, he struggled in this spot earlier this season but with these main guys out for the Hornets he has looked really good as of late and makes for a nice guard option on this slate. I like the price on Miles Bridges better on FanDuel, but you can play him on both sites due to the position scarcity at SF. He’s been really consistent ever since Gordon Hayward went down and has flashed a nice ceiling as well. The price on PJ Washington has come up, but for good reason, he’s playing big minutes and producing nicely in them, no issue going right back to him here in a pace-up matchup. Devonte’ Graham is coming off one of his better games in a while where he went for 42 DraftKings points. He’s a solid option here, and cheaper on FanDuel if you’re price shopping on him.

5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo

4-star play: Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Terry Rozier, Miles Bridges, PJ Washington, Devonte’ Graham

Deeper Value: Pat Connaughton

GPP Sleeper: Brook Lopez, Donte DiVincenzo, Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton, Jalen McDaniels

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Portland Trailblazers @ Indiana Pacers

Vegas Total: 234.5

Vegas Spread: Por -4.5

Starting with the Blazers, the price on Damian Lillard is far better on FanDuel and that’s probably where I would get my exposure to him. The matchup is sneaky good against this Pacers team that is playing fast and loose at the moment, so I don’t even mind him for DraftKings but that FanDuel price is tough to pass up. CJ McCollum has looked pretty solid as of late as well, he’s another guy where the price on FanDuel is just far superior. Jusuf Nurkic has at least 53 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, he’s playing just around 29 minutes in his last three games but he’s being really effective in them. I like going right back to him here against this shorthanded Pacers frontcourt. Then you can round the Blazers out with GPP options like Norman Powell and Robert Covington, it’s a great game to target for DFS, so they’re guys I’ll probably look to get some exposure on. From the Pacers, Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis will continue to be out here opening up a bunch of minutes in the frontcourt. Goga Bitadze will start at center, but he’s also questionable and missed the last game, so we’ll need news on him, he’s a solid value option if he ends up playing. If he’s out again we can fire up Oshae Brissett again. He’s scored at least 24 DraftKings points in four straight games and is going to play massive minutes. He *only saw 31 minutes last game because he got into quick foul trouble, they’ll need his minutes here if Goga is out as well. Malcolm Brogdon and Caris LeVert are going to eat up all the usage on this team with those guys out, I would prefer Brogdon in all formats, but LeVert has a nice ceiling for GPPs, his floor just isn’t as good. Lastly, TJ McConnell is always in play for GPPs in hopes he can grab a bunch of steals/blocks.

5-star play: Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum (FanDuel), Malcolm Brogdon

4-star play: Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum (DraftKings), Caris LeVert, Jusuf Nurkic, Oshae Brissett

Deeper Value: Goga Bitadze

GPP Sleeper: Doug McDermott, TJ McConnell, Norman Powell, Robert Covington

Brooklyn Nets @ Toronto Raptors

Vegas Total: 233

Vegas Spread: Bkn -6.5

Starting with the Nets, Kyrie Irving has at least 50 DraftKings points in three straight games and gets a good matchup with a Raptors team that is struggling big time right now, but I do like his price tag much more on DraftKings. Kevin Durant, you can make a case for on both sites after he put up a big game on the Suns, the nice thing about him on FanDuel is he’s SF eligible so helps you fill that spot. Outside of those two, it’s going to be tough for me to get much else from this game unless you want to take a flyer on guys like Joe Harris or Landry Shamet in hopes they can get hot from deep. You can make a case for DeAndre Jordan as well with Nic Claxton still out. From the Raptors, it’s a back-to-back for them so I would be really cautious and watch out for news regarding their starting lineup, I can see them resting guys like Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam here. That said, we’ll operate under the assumption that they’re playing. Those two combined with Fred VanVleet will see huge minutes should they start and are all solid plays for me here, the nice thing with them is Nurse runs them into the ground when we get confirmation that they’re starting, so not like we need to worry about minutes. You can probably lump OG Anunoby into that group as well, but his price is a bit too high for me to really prioritize. Lastly, Khem Birch should continue to see good run as they try and see what they have in this guy, he’s a solid sub $5k option on both sites.

5-star play: Kyrie Irving (DraftKings), Kevin Durant

4-star play: Kyrie Irving (FanDuel), Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Khem Birch, Joe Harris, Landry Shamet, OG Anunoby

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets

Vegas Total: 229.5

Vegas Spread: Min -1.5

Starting with the Wolves, Karl-Anthony Towns should be able to do whatever he wants in this spot, this Rockets defense and frontcourt are not good at the moment. He’s averaging 61.1 DraftKings points per game in two games against them this season. Anthony Edwards has bounced back over his last two games and is a guy you can get to here as well, I like him a bit more of GPPs just because he can be a bit volatile with D’Angelo Russell back in there. Speaking of Russell, he’s coming off a 50 burger last night but has yet to rejoin the starting lineup. Finch said he’s capable of playing big minutes and expects him to rejoin the starting lineup at some point. If he slides into the starting lineup I’ll love him, but he’s a good play regardless. Lastly, Ricky Rubio is a fine filler piece if you need one. From the Rockets, they were a bit of a mess last time they were on the slate but they look to be a bit better now. They’ll still be without John Wall and Eric Gordon, so let’s run some data with them off the court over the past four weeks:

  • Kelly Olynyk – 22.6% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
  • Kevin Porter Jr. – 27.1% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
  • Jae’sean Tate – 19.7% usage rate; 0.99 fpm
  • Christian Wood – 25.8% usage rate; 1.08 fpm

These would be the main four guys I have an interest in, it’s a great matchup all around so I have no issue getting to any of these guys.

5-star play: Karl-Anthony Towns

4-star play: Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell, Kelly Olynyk, Kevin Porter Jr., Christian Wood

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Ricky Rubio, Jae’sean Tate, Anthony Edwards

Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors

Vegas Total: NA

Vegas Spread: NA

Starting with the Mavs, Luka Doncic is in better form over the past week or two which is nice to see. Keep an eye on Kristaps Porzingis as he comes into this one listed as questionable. If Kristaps were to miss Luka would jump into elite play territory if he isn’t already there. I do have a little more interest in some of the other guys on this team than I normally would if Josh Richardson were to miss. I loaded up on Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jalen Brunson in this spot last night, so I think you can go right back to them in a fast-paced game against the Warriors in this one. From the Warriors, Steph Curry is averaging 57.4 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Mavs this season, I have no issue going to him again in this spot. Draymond Green is a solid option as well, if he could run into some points every now and then he would put up some monster numbers. He’s called short on a triple-double in the past two games because he’s not scoring enough… that’s generally not the case for NBA players. Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre are solid wing options here as well, they’ve looked good as of late and are playing huge minutes right now as Kerr has tightened his rotation up. Lastly, I don’t hate getting to Jordan Poole if you happen to land on him as a last piece in.

5-star play: Luka Doncic, Steph Curry

4-star play: Kristaps Porzingis, Tim Hardaway, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, Kelly Oubre

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Jalen Brunson, Jordan Poole

NBA Lock of the Day: Jaylen Brown (DK – $8.4k; FD – $8.1k)

This one was a pretty easy choice for me and I would expect he’s pretty popular tonight, but a guy I want in my lineups nonetheless. With Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum both out it should be up to Brown to run the offense here. With those guys off the court this season Brown is looking down the barrel at a 37.7% usage rate and 1.34 fantasy points per minute. I would imagine he makes my Core plays on our Cheat Sheets/Coaches Notes for tonight. These notes include Core plays, player ranks, and tiers notes, so come check them out! Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your lock predictions and if your player gets over 5x tonight I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

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Written byMadnessDFS

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